I thought that the consensus was that they have to see what Apophis does in an upcoming close call (2013, I think). If it threads a needle in the distance between the Earth and the Moon at the time (a 600 mile ‘eye’), then it will certainly strike the Earth and hit in the Pacific in the 2030s.
If it doesn’t, then there is no danger.
And by any standard, as I understand it, there is no danger of Apophis being a planet killer or anything like that. But it would probably be unwise to be vacationing on the West Coast that week.
“I thought that the consensus was that they have to see what Apophis does in an upcoming close call (2013, I think). If it threads a needle in the distance between the Earth and the Moon at the time (a 600 mile ‘eye’), then it will certainly strike the Earth and hit in the Pacific in the 2030s.”
Surf’s up., Dude!