Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

To: MrShoop

You cannot average a bunch of polls to create a poll.

It’s a goofy concept that doesn’t make logical sense.

Take surveys of different numbers of people, at different times, using different weighing, and goodness knows what other monkeying around, and then just add them together (and divide by X?) and get a number?

That is like a Xerox of a Xerox pretending to be an original.

It’s bad math, cheap logic, and shoddy reasoning.


239 posted on 11/07/2016 4:13:58 PM PST by VanDeKoik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 233 | View Replies ]


To: VanDeKoik
Uhm, nope. It is a common, proven, statistical method used in research. You can fake like you know some. math, but you clearly don't. Let me quote this paper for you, but to make it simple, averaging multiple sets of data reduces the effect of outlying data, and will tend to provide a more accurate result.
Averaging multiple samples to arrive at single measurement (and error) is a good way to improve the accuracy of your measurements. The premise of averaging is that noise and measurement errors are random, and therefore, by the Central Limit Theorem, the error will have a normal (Gaussian) distribution. By averaging multiple points, you arrive at a Gaussian distribution. You can then calculate a mean that is statistically close to the actual value. Furthermore, the standard deviation that you derive from the measurements gives the width of the normal distribution around the mean, which describes the probability density for the location of the actual value.
one more..
The average value becomes more and more precise as the number of measurements increases. Although the uncertainty of any single measurement is always ∆ݔ ,the uncertainty in the mean becomes smaller as more measurements are made.
So now you know Nate Silver's secret in 2012. You take a bunch of measurements (polls), average them, and you get a more accurate result.
256 posted on 11/07/2016 4:53:07 PM PST by Wayne07
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 239 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson