What a real expert says about that jobs data; Why the Labor Market Is Hotter Than Jobless Numbers Indicate

New York Post ^ | 01/15/2020 | John Crudele

[SeekAndFind]

If you go by the Labor Department’s statistics, the job market was very hot in November. Then it became cold in December.

Average the two out and — in true Goldilocks fashion — the economy (like the porridge) may now be just right.

I’ve always told you that the government’s employment stats are flaky. Various adjustments are supposed to take care of things like Christmas hiring and new companies just coming into being.

But they don’t. They only confuse things.

And only after many months or even years of revisions do we learn what the job market was really like. Wall Street may find the monthly numbers convenient for trading, but you can go crazy trying to determine if Washington is telling us fairy tales with its statistics.

So, for a break from that nonsense, I spoke on Friday with Becky Frankiewicz, president of North America at ManpowerGroup, the third-largest job staffing company in the world.

The Labor Department had just announced that the nation’s economy added only 145,000 jobs in December. That was well below expectations and well under the 256,000 revised new job total for November.

“I can give you a real-world view from employers and employees,” says Frankiewicz, whose company finds jobs for millions of people each year. “We still have more jobs than people looking for work in our country.”

Even though job growth has been steady over the past year, government numbers say that average incomes for Americans have been growing only moderately. That might change soon, according to Frankiewicz.

“We are seeing the power shift from being more employer-driven to employee- driven,” she says. “Meaning, skilled labor can call the shots.”

[Vendome]

Self Ping Job Market

[Ex gun maker.]

“Skilled Labor”
“Can call the shots”

Too bad the definition of skilled labor is so subject to re-interpretation, and prior experience becomes irrelevant after five years.

It would also help if industry were less concentrated into industrial parks at major cities.
Where I am the nearest decent jobs are at least sixty miles (An hour+) away.
So the employers get concerned the employee will not always arrive on time due to weather or traffic.
Their answer to the “Labor shortage” is twelve hour days, which discourages anyone over forty.

Bottom line, we could have an even better economy if companies were not so clustered together away from willing workers.

[Hojczyk]

Business owners may windup hating Trump....

Higher costs and the problem of people leaving for better jobs or the boss is a jerk..

Where I live you can get a job in half an hour...

Every restaurant and store has help wanted signs...

And the starting wage is posted along with benefits..

I have never ever seen that

[Buffalo Head]

What the 'experts' seem to miss is that our 50 year low in unemployment occurred at the peak of the Vietnam war. Those serving in the war were employed by the military. A good portion of those not directly serving were producing products for the war efforts.

One would have to go back to at least 1966 to get a realistic base line for comparison purposes.

[Ex gun maker.]

Yes, you can get “A job” at close to minimum wage anywhere.
A job that allows for a decent life is often another story entirely.

If the job can be handled by illegals, even less satisfactorily, and you are over fifty or so, you had better have some special leverage with management.

No one talks about it but Illegals are the greatest enablers of age discrimination.

[GOPJ]

Peoplel with jobs can buy more products from American businesses... in the long run this is a win win...

[fastrock]

Agreed, jobs are currently clustered in metro areas. But over time companies will build in towns w 20k-50k population due lower land costs, skilled workforce and lower wage scales. When this occurs - boom times. My hometown of 18K, just had a long time company announce expansion and 300 more jobs. This is huge for a small town in NW Ohio.

[FormerFRLurker]

No one talks about it but Illegals are the greatest enablers of age discrimination.

Actually I'd say that health care costs are the greatest enabler of age discrimination. No company wants to pay for health insurance for someone who's 50+. If anything I think illegals mostly depress youth employment more since the jobs they take tend to be oriented towards manual labor. Not a lot of 60 year olds lining up for landscaping jobs.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

What the 'experts' seem to miss is that our 50 year low in unemployment occurred at the peak of the Vietnam war. Those serving in the war were employed by the military. A good portion of those not directly serving were producing products for the war efforts.

One would have to go back to at least 1966 to get a realistic base line for comparison purposes.

Excellent point. Being drafted into the military isn’t all that different from being impressed into slavery.

If you subtracted the draftees from the numerator and, to be fair, the denominator of the “percentage employed” calculation, no telling how far back you might have to go to find employment numbers as good as today’s.

[Grampa Dave]

“We are seeing the power shift from being more employer-driven to employee- driven,” she says. “Meaning, skilled labor can call the shots.”

This is happening and has been for about a year.

[CodeToad]

With Obama, the phony jobs numbers were reduced every month. the BLS, a pro-liberal agency, lied every month for Obama.

With Trump they suppress the numbers then adjust them up next month.

[Ex gun maker.]

We will have to agree to disagree on this.
Illegals I’m seeing are NOT doing landscaping, they are taking the manufacturing jobs.
Company health insurance is largely based on the number of employees.
If they are running 24-7 based on 12 Hr. shifts I doubt a few more older American workers would make any real difference to their health cost.
Illegals also tend to have missed a lot of vaccinations, and may be carrying disease that had been largely eradicated in the U.S.

[octex]

I worked as a salaried professional for a major defense contractor (Bell) in the ‘60s. Along with hundreds of others, I was let go just a week before Christmas in ‘70, when the demand for our aircraft went down as the VN war was ending (we had been averaging 100+ per month).

Jobs became scarce. Six months later, I got a job at another major defense contractor (TI) that produced electronics and I learned new skills.

I had continued my part time college pursuit, graduated and was re-hired at Bell in 1974. Was retired in Dec 2001. ....The early ‘60s and ‘70s were tough years for job hunters.