[SeekAndFind]

SOURCE: https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

Wall Street Journal ( Behind a paywall, unfortunately ):

While Italy is being slammed by the speed of the coronavirus’s spread, the ultimate mortality rate won’t be as devastating as the early numbers predict:

Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time.

That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

[MrEdd]

Well, these two may be damned slow witted, but at least they are not complete lack wits.

[dp0622]

It’s a tough illness to Gauge in that respect. It’s not the black death or Ebola with very obvious symptoms in every case

It seems like 1% might be pretty close.

it was good to keep it at Bay so we don’t lose too many of our elderly. But Trump is Right. April 16th is more than enough self quarantine

[babygene]

Well, Duha...

Deen saying this from the beginning.

[brookwood]

OMG this BS from the American Ostrich again????
Finally we have proof of the deadliness of Covid19 from NYC.
NYC had 53,006 deaths from all causes in 2014

NYC had 2,220 deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia in 2014

https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/New-York-City-Leading-Causes-of-Death/jb7j-dtam

Another rough estimate for number of deaths in NYC every year,
from Quora - 1 death every 9 minutes, 158 per day, 57,000 per year

https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-die-in-New-York-every-day

So roughly 158 people die in NYC every day and 2220/100 = 22 die every day of influenza and pneumonia every day assuming a 100 day flu season.
For overall deaths there is very little seasonality. March is 108% of the average death rate for the year.

http://www.legacy.com/news/culture-and-trends/article/yes-its-true-more-people-die-in-january

90% of NYS deaths from Covid19 so far were in New York City

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/new-york-coronavirus-cases-updates.html

There were 95 Covid19 deaths in NYS 3-25 so about 81 in NYC - compared to 158 deaths from all causes on an average day and 22 deaths from flu on an average day during flu season.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So all the moron “flubros” out there can kiss my ass, the facts are already there, FOUR TIMES the number of normal flu deaths yesterday, and more than 50% more deaths than normal FROM ALL CAUSES in NYC.

[Buckeye McFrog]

4x-7x the flu. Serious and significant. But it’s not the Andromeda Strain.

[Magnum44]

Dont worry, they will get the predictions right NEXT time. /s

[Sergio]

Bkmk

[TalBlack]

You don’t really have to predict how deadly a bug is. Once its loose it’ll do what it does. Been loose a while now...

[The Great RJ]

I developed a viral infection at Christmas that had all of the symptoms of COVID-19. Low fever, cough and lung congestion. At the time influenza B was rampant in the area, but I had the flu vaccine and tested negative for influenza A or B. I went to one of the minute clinics and was given medication for cough and an albuterol inhaler. My lung congestion got worse and I went to the local hospital ER where I was given a breathing treatment and sent home with more albuterol. Having persistent laryngitis and lung congestion I went to see my regular doctor and was given prednisone and a course of antibiotics. That finally broke the congestion and laryngitis. I was off work for a week and it took almost four weeks to recover.

I was definitely sick, but never bed ridden nor in need of being hospitalized despite being 70. My wife, daughter and grandson were exposed but never developed symptoms. The ER doctor told me they had seen a lot of this virus that definitely was not influenza. I’m convinced it may well have been COVID-19

[central_va]

The hoax slowly unravels.

[null and void]

It will be interesting to see what the final numbers are. A LOT depends on the denominator. (US numbers)

Completed cases (dead+recovered)   = 62.8% dead

Lancet (dead 14 days ago+recovered)= 7.05% dead

Total cases                        = 1.5% dead

Population                         = 0.000317% dead

Entire known universe population   = 0.0000136% dead

The Lancet algorithm is probably the most accurate, it better accounts for the shorter time to die than recover.

Don't be too alarmed by the 7.05%, it is a small data set, the world rate has been around 4% since Late February.

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[elbook]

All depends which of the ‘predictions’ you give any credence to.

We have plenty of attention whores competing as chicken littles who the leftist media are very happy to amplify these days.

[GOPJ]

Think of the virus as an inferior Chinese product... lots of great intention and BS - not much compared to American, Russian or German bio-weapons...