Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Models are notoriously unreliable. Don’t agree - watch your local weather forecasts!
My brother said that reagan was going to die in office because every president who won an election on a year ending in zero died in office.
Until reagan...
The whole thing is based on way too small a sampling.
I’ve seen roulette wheels com up black 20 times in a row or more. So? Does that mean the next 20 spins are going to be black?