It’s a trend analysis - 1% death rate from the flu is calculated from the SEASON and as more people get infected (especially those not in nursing homes) the rate has been trending lower which is bringing it down from 6% to now 3% and continues to fall. For my state we’ve had an increase of infected to almost 1000 a day but the death rate has fallen to under a dozen a day and as low as 1. Now this changes a little over time as some deaths are back dated but the trend line is still falling to zero as infection rates increase.
If this virus were as deadly as it’s hyped and claimed we be seeing a spike in deaths as well.
You do see a rise in deaths in any place where there’s a rise in cases; it’s simply offset by ~15 days. You can see it in Texas, Florida, and so on. You can see it nationally as well. It’s how I predicted over a week in advance when the 7-day average for daily new deaths would peak in the US and how high it would be(https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3867883/posts?page=29#29 and https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3867883/posts?page=30#30). I don’t have a crystal ball; just follow the trend lines. Once you offset the daily new deaths averages by 15 days from the new cases averages, they align with one another.
Conversely, when cases level off, 15 days later so do deaths. When cases falls, 15 days later deaths do too. Cases are a leading indicator of what’s to come in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. Deaths are a lagging indicator of what already happened. It’s simply data that can be used to guide response for things like hospital staffing and supplies logistics. If cases are falling in one area but rising in another, shift supplies and personnel where practical to meet the needs in both places.
The CFR is falling, primarily because we’re identifying a lot more cases. The IFR has been stable for months now. It’s between 0.64% and 0.66%. I’ve yet to see a study since at least June, maybe late May that suggested an IFR outside that range. For now, that appears to be the reality. Our goal should be to slow the spread with reasonable measures that don’t tank the economy until we can end the disease with a safe and effective vaccine that President Trump should be announcing in the next couple months.
And if this virus were as deadly as it’s being hyped by the media and certain Democrat governors, we wouldn’t be having this conversation because we’d both be dead already. 0.64 - 0.66% isn’t great, but it’s no smallpox either.