Nevada could be a weird state this year. With the scaled down work force needed in Las Vegas, did those people stay, or high tail it to another state?
As far as Virginia goes...I doubt it, but....In 2016 Gary Johnson got 3.4 % of the vote (118K) and Evan McMullin got 1.4% (54K) in that state. I know Trump wouldn’t get all those votes, but that would get him pretty much into a dead heat.