Midterm House Benchmark - Seats Controlled, not Seats Won

[cotton1706]

Republicans currently have 212 seats in the House of Representatives, so even a 20 seat gain would about equal the House majorities of 1994 (Republican), 2002 (Republican), 2006 (Democrat) and 2018 (Democrat) - see below historical figures.

A 25-30 seat gain (the average midterm gain) would exceed those figures. And a 35-40 seat gain would equal or exceed the 2014 majority high mark.

2018 - 235 seat Democrat majority (D +41)

2014 - 247 seat Republican majority (R +13)

2010 - 242 seat Republican majority (R +63)

2006 - 233 seat Democrat majority (D +31)

2002 - 229 seat Republican majority (R +8)

1998 - 223 seat Republican majority (D +5)

1994 - 230 seat Republican majority (R +54)

1990 - 267 seat Democrat majority (D +7)

1986 - 258 seat Democrat majority (D +5)

1982 - 269 seat Democrat majority (D +26)

1978 - 277 seat Democrat majority (R +14)

1974 - 291 seat Democrat majority (D +49)

1970 - 255 seat Democrat majority (D +12)

1966 - 248 seat Democrat majority (R +47)

1962 - 258 seat Democrat majority (R +1)

[TexasGurl24]

YES!!!! I’ve been preaching about this in response to those absurd predictions that some have been making.

People are forgetting that the GOP is starting from a much higher floor than they had in 1994 or 2010.

In 2010, they were going from 179 seats up to 242.

This year, they are starting from 212. It’s HARD, HARD, HARD to break the 240 ceiling. 250 is almost impossible.

[cotton1706]

We’ll see how the actual numbers play out. There are a lot of factors like untried candidates and redistricting to take into account.

But in any case, anything over 20 will be a significant majority, especially since it will be FAR more conservative than the 2010 and 2014 majorities since most of the Boehner Boys are gone now.

[mikelets456]

You’re correct. We made up many seats in 2020 which is pretty amazing with all the cheating and 24/7 of “they’re Nazis”. So if they Cain 25 seats or more that would be a blowout!!!

[aMorePerfectUnion]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1589689194192203777

Predicts a 75 seat margin for Republicans in House!

[aMorePerfectUnion]

https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4107222/posts?page=5#5

I’m rooting for 255!

[Jim Noble]

The only relevant statistic (and I don’t know how to compile it):

How many GOP votes are “soft” (what in the UK Conservative Party are called “wet”), vs. how many Democrat votes are weak?

[cotton1706]

“Predicts a 75 seat margin for Republicans in House!”

That would be a 43 seat gain. Very possible.

[Pollard]

I don’t think we have to worry about the House. It’s the handful of senator and governor that they’ll cheat like hell on.

AZ. Kari Lake, Blake Masters.
PA. Mehmet and Mastriano

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/4106677/posts

National Guard to be in 14 States including AZ and PA

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-monitor-polls-24-states-compliance-federal-voting-rights-laws

DOJ sending people to;

Maricopa County, Arizona;
Navajo County, Arizona;
Pima County, Arizona;
Pinal County, Arizona;
Yavapai County, Arizona;

Berks County, Pennsylvania;
Centre County, Pennsylvania;
Lehigh County, Pennsylvania;
Luzerne County, Pennsylvania;
Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania;

NG and DOJ also going to NC but I don’t know what’s going on in races there.

OH. JD Vance

DOJ also going to Cuyahoga County OH which has a population of 1.26 million.

[lurk]

The difference this year is a new repub majority next year will be a higher percentage of newer faces elected since 2014. The old moderate repubs who were there for years will have less power.

[SamAdams76]

Excellent post. Many people tonight will compare the number of seats won to 1994 and 2010 and might consider "only" a 30 seat pickup a lost opportunity. However, a 30-seat pickup will give the GOP the same majority they had in 2010, when they picked up 63 seats.

I think we do much better than that but it's nice to know that even 30-35 seat pickup will put our majority at 2010 and 1994 levels and that's at the low end of what we should be able to do tonight.

[cotton1706]

“However, a 30-seat pickup will give the GOP the same majority they had in 2010, when they picked up 63 seats.”

That’s right. Which is one of the reasons the Democrats’ and media’s (but I repeat myself) fears have been so palpable. Because a Republican majority in the 240’s with most of the (pro-Democrat) Republican pantywaists gone will be a SIGNIFICANT shift in power.

The cozy little world they have known is being destroyed piece by piece.

[matthew fuller]

"This year, they are starting from 212. It’s HARD, HARD, HARD to break the 240 ceiling. 250 is almost impossible."

I realize that 1990 is ancient history to some here, but if you look back then and before, seven out of eight were way above 250. I guess that you mean it's hard for Republicans to beat 250.

[TexasGurl24]

Hard for either party after realignment and redistricting.