thanks airdalecheif
These polls are on the small side of statewide polls. So, sampling errors for each state are a bit large. The sample, as a whole, is pretty big. We can feel confident about where we stand at this time in the battleground states.
Regarding Wisconsin, one point down ... Trump tends to outperform the polls by more than one point. In 2016, nobody gave Trump a chance based on the polls in this state. But, Trump won Wisconsin. In 2020, Trump came from far behind to just barely lose (with maybe the other side harvesting some votes). So, I wouldn’t be disheartened by one, small poll.
Regarding Arizona, where there is some hullabaloo concerning a state supreme court decision on abortion, we have two other recent polls:
https://breakingbattlegrounds.substack.com/p/new-arizona-abortion-survey-results
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000018e-dfa4-dd93-a19f-fffe83440000
The three new these polls, together, are pretty solid.
Unlike Donald Trump and Keri Lake, the other side doesn’t want a compromise that protects privacy early during a pregnancy, and protects the kid after 12 or 15 weeks. They want abortion up until birth, and maybe infanticide, and they also want euthanasia.