NK: Jacoby Claims North Korea Can Arm Taepo Dong 2 With Nuke ~~ Wrong answer, Lowell.

ArmsControlWonk.com ^ | 29 April 05 | Jeffrey Lewis ·

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Yesterday, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) asked the Director of Defense Intelligence (DIA) Agency Admiral Lowell Jacoby whether or not “North Korea has the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear device?”

Admiral Jacoby replied: “My assessment is that they have the capability to do that, yes Maam.”

Wrong answer, Lowell.

As you can see from the video, Cambone jots down what Jacoby just said and Clinton moves in for the kill.

The scene is a study in elegant political choreography—the only person unaware of the defenestration is Jacoby himself.

Jacoby’s statement was not the public position of the IC. In fact, Paul Kerr points out, Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research Thomas Fingar offered a more cautious assessment of Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities on 16 February 2005, testifying that “there is no evidence that it has produced such weapons and mated them to a missile capable of delivering them to the United States.” (more)

Clinton knew that immediately. Afteward, Clinton and Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) wrote a letter to Rice, beating the Bush Administration over the head with Jacoby’s revelation:

At today’s public Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Senator Clinton asked Vice Admiral Lowell F. Jacoby, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, whether it was his assessment that “North Korea has the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear device?” In response, Admiral Jacoby said “my assessment is that they have the capability to do that, yes…” Admiral Jacoby also confirmed prior assessments by Administration officials that North Korean two stage intermediate intercontinental missiles could reach the United States.

Admiral Jacoby’s assessment that North Korea has the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear device is, we believe, the first such public assessment by an Administration official. This assessment is only the latest development, coming after four years of North Korean escalatory action, including their declaration in February that they have nuclear weapons, and that they no longer consider themselves bound by their self-declared missile-testing moratorium, as well as recent press accounts of unusual activity at nuclear and missile sites, that could presage nuclear or missile tests. All of this continues to strongly suggest that the threat posed by the North Korean nuclear program is increasing. Yet we have not seen an aggressive diplomatic effort to address this threat.

DIA reportedly put out a statement that Jacoby’s comments were consistent with prior testimony.

That’s not true, though. IC statements have focused on the Taepo Dong 2’s nuclear weapon sized payload rather than the size of North Korea nuclear weapons. Jacoby’s prepared testimony continued that tradition, explaining

that the Taepo Dong 2 “could deliver a nuclear warhead to parts of the United States in a two stage variant and target all of North America with a three stage variant.”

Clinton knew exactly what she was doing. One Congressional staffer at the hearing later told the Los Angeles Times that “We did not anticipate the answer we got. But the answer did not surprise us.”

Read this reporting by David Sanger in the New York Times back in July 2003. Sanger reported that intelligence agencies believed North Korea was developing a warhead small enough for missiles and was briefing that information to US allies:

American intelligence officials now believe that North Korea is developing the technology to make nuclear warheads small enough to fit atop the country’s growing arsenal of missiles, potentially putting Tokyo and American troops based in Japan at risk, according to officials who have received the intelligence reports.

In the assessment—which they have shared with Japan, South Korea and other allies in recent weeks—officials at the Central Intelligence Agency said American satellites had identified an advanced nuclear testing site in an area called Youngdoktong. At the site, equipment has been set up to test conventional explosives that, when detonated, could compress a plutonium core and set off a compact nuclear explosion.

Some intelligence officials say they believe that the existence of the testing range is evidence that North Korea intends to manufacture much more sophisticated weapons that would be light enough to put onto its growing arsenal of medium- and long-range missiles.

Previously, American officials had said they were uncertain whether North Korea had received enough outside technical help to even attempt the precision steps required to detonate such a “miniaturized” nuclear warhead.

The new testing capability does not mean North Korea can actually build a small weapon, but it suggests that the North Koreans are moving to combine their two most advanced weapons projects: nuclear technology and missile technology. The new intelligence reports suggest that they could develop such a weapon in less than a year, but some officials warn that that assessment represents what one called “a best guess rather than a solid estimate.”

For months, Washington has been trying to convince Asian nations, especially South Korea and China, that the North Korean threat is so urgent that it requires a unified diplomatic front to force the country to give up its weapons. The new intelligence, officials who have seen it say, apparently is being marshaled to support the administration’s argument.

According to officials who have been briefed on the American reports, conventional explosions simulating a nuclear detonation have been set off at the testing site, which is near North Korea’s main nuclear complex. North Korea has never tested a nuclear weapon, though the C.I.A. long ago estimated that it manufactured two crude devices in the late 1980’s or early 1990’s.

North Korea, unlike Iraq, has made no secret of its plan to develop nuclear weapons. Now, administration officials say they fear that the North is on the verge of producing five or six new weapons, some of which might be miniaturized.

“This would give them the range they never had before, and the chance to spread their threat far beyond South Korea,” said a senior Asian official, noting that about 60,000 American troops are based in Japan.

The new intelligence estimates provided to Asian allies, however, left it unclear how quickly the North could produce the small warheads. The worst-case estimate, officials say, is less than a year.

If the New York Times story is accurate, the Bush Administration was saying one thing to allies and another in the US press. Clinton caught Admiral Jacoby—never really regarded as the sharpest shovel in the shed—between those two stories.

Update: In responses to unclassified Questions for the Record from the 2003 Worldwide Threat hearing, the CIA offered some detail about North Korea’s nuclear designs:

We assess that North Korea has produced one or two simple fission-type nuclear weapons and has validated the designs without conducting yield-producing nuclear tests. Press reports indicate North Korea has been conducting nuclear weapon-related high explosive tests since the 1980s in order to validate its weapons design(s). With such tests, we assess North Korea would not require nuclear tests to validate simple fission weapons.

Keeping in mind that alleged Pakistani design assistance focused on HEU designs, I am skeptical that North Korea’s “one or two simple fission-type nuclear weapons” utilizing Pu would be small enough for the Taepo Dong 2’s 700 kg payload.

And, on another note, David Wright outlines some of the challenges that North Korea would face in making the Taepo Dongs 1 and 2 into operational weapons.

For a review of North Korea’s ballistic missile programs, see Arms Control Wonk on 13 February 2005

· Posted by Jeffrey Lewis · 29 April 05

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Related item:

North Korean Ballistic Missiles

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From:

Arms Control Today

***********************************************

Arms Control Today

September 2004

	Printer Friendly New North Korean Missile Suspected Paul Kerr North Korea is “in the process of deploying” a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, a Department of State official told Arms Control Today Aug. 18. The missile might be able to fly up to three times as far as previous North Korean missiles, reaching U.S. facilities in Asia. Although the official emphasized that Pyongyang’s efforts to improve its missiles have been ongoing “for years,” recent press reports have given the issue new visibility. The official did not dispute press accounts, based on a South Korean Defense Ministry report, that North Korea has been testing missile engines and deploying intermediate-range ballistic missiles. The official also confirmed that the missile is based on a Russian missile, reportedly the Soviet SS-N-6. The official said the United States believes North Korea is deploying the missile in a “road-mobile mode,” although the SS-N-6 was a submarine-launched ballistic missile. The precise range of the new missile is unclear. Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby told the Senate Intelligence Committee in February that a missile similar to the SS-N-6 “could reach U.S. facilities in Okinawa, Guam, and possibly Alaska” if it were developed by North Korea. The State Department official did not give a specific range for the missile, but several press reports cite U.S. and South Korean government estimates of 2,500-4,000 kilometers. The most advanced version of the SS-N-6 had an estimated range of 3,000 kilometers. A new missile’s range would vary considerably depending on the size of its payload. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov denied that Russia had provided North Korea with missile technology, the Interfax News Agency reported Aug. 5. Russia no longer deploys the SS-N-6. The State Department official also stated that North Korea is “arguably” in the process of deploying the missile without flight-testing it. The official noted that Pyongyang does not develop missiles in the same way the United States does, pointing to North Korea’s deployment of its Nodong missile after only one flight test as an example of its unorthodox missile deployment practices. However, Greg Thielmann, who served as director of the strategic, proliferation, and military affairs office in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, expressed skepticism of that possibility. Thielmann told Arms Control Today Aug. 20 that he is “dubious” that North Korea would deploy the missile without testing it, adding that it is “unclear what experience the North Koreans have with [the missile].” He also noted that the liquid-fueled SS-N-6 would carry the same operational disadvantages of previous North Korean liquid-fueled road-mobile systems, such as being more conspicuous and requiring longer launch times than solid-fueled systems. Asked about press leaks from U.S. officials that Iran is conducting flight tests for North Korea, the State Department official said that it is “always a possibility” but added that the United States does not have solid information that such cooperation is happening. It is not clear that North Korea “would depend on Iran for anything,” the official added. Iran receives assistance from North Korea on its ballistic missile program, according to a November 2003 CIA report. North Korea has observed a self-imposed moratorium on testing longer-range missiles since 1999. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il told Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi during a May summit meeting that Pyongyang intends to continue adhering to the moratorium. (See ACT, June 2004.) The longest-range missile North Korea has flight-tested is the Taepo Dong-1, which it launched over the Sea of Japan in 1998. As configured, that missile cannot reach the United States. The longest-range missile North Korea has deployed is the 1,300-kilometer-range Nodong, according to a December 2001 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). North Korea imposed the missile testing moratorium after its 1998 tests raised tensions with Japan and the United States. Since then, the progress of its missile development program has remained uncertain. Then-CIA Director George Tenet told the Senate Intelligence Committee in February that North Korea’s “multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2—capable of reaching the United States with a nuclear-weapon-sized payload—may be ready for flight testing.” The 2001 NIE expressed this same judgment, adding that the Taepo Dong-2 could hit parts of the continental United States in a two-stage configuration and all of North America in a three-stage configuration. Neither of those missile configurations has been tested.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

AND from the Senator:

Senator Clinton

*****************************************

In response to a series of questions on North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile capability asked by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton at Thursday’s Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, confirmed for the first time publicly by any Administration official that North Korea has the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear device. Admiral Jacoby also confirmed the Administration’s assessment that North Korea has the ability to deploy a two-stage intercontinental missile that could reach the continental United States.

Click HERE to view the exchange.

Later Thursday, Senator Clinton and Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, the Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, sent the following letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice:

April 28, 2005

Dear Secretary Rice,

We are writing today to express our concern over disclosures today in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Administration assesses that North Korea is capable of arming a missile with a nuclear device. This is most disturbing coupled with the assessment that North Korean missiles have the capability to reach the continental United States. This latest revelation motivates us to renew our strong recommendation to this Administration to engage in bilateral diplomatic efforts with North Korea to address this serious threat.

At today’s public Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Senator Clinton asked Vice Admiral Lowell F. Jacoby, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, whether it was his assessment that “North Korea has the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear device?” In response, Admiral Jacoby said “my assessment is that they have the capability to do that, yes…” Admiral Jacoby also confirmed prior assessments by Administration officials that North Korean two stage intermediate intercontinental missiles could reach the United States.

Admiral Jacoby’s assessment that North Korea has the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear device is, we believe, the first such public assessment by an Administration official. This assessment is only the latest development, coming after four years of North Korean escalatory action, including their declaration in February that they have nuclear weapons, and that they no longer consider themselves bound by their self-declared missile-testing moratorium, as well as recent press accounts of unusual activity at nuclear and missile sites, that could presage nuclear or missile tests. All of this continues to strongly suggest that the threat posed by the North Korean nuclear program is increasing. Yet we have not seen an aggressive diplomatic effort to address this threat.

We urge you to engage in further diplomacy with the North Koreans to address this threat – both within the multilateral context of the Six Party Talks, and bilaterally. It is important to include our allies and friends in Northeast Asia in our diplomatic effort, but this does not mean that we cannot hold bilateral talks with North Korea. Indeed, our allies in South Korea would like us to engage in bilateral talks, and have even stated that the North Korean proposal of a nuclear freeze is a good first step. In short, we urge you to pursue all avenues of negotiation.

We look forward to your response.Senator Carl Levin
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

fyi

[Dog Gone]

What a shocker. Senator Clinton wants President Bush to return to the wildly successful foreign policy tactics that her beloved husband used with North Korea, which resulted in the nukes in the first place.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I think she is running in 08!

[Dog Gone]

That's why it's important to defeat her next year.

[dgallo51]

Donkey Steaks for all my friends!

[dgallo51]

Strike that…make that 'Heavenly Cow'

[purpleland]

"That's why it's important to defeat her next year."

There are enough substantiated cases of general abuses of taypayers trust, malfeance, duplicity, demagoguery, pandering, rhetorical dishonesty, corruption, aberrant ideology, dishumanization, power-lust, and megalomania against Hillary Clinton to reduce her to a figerative pile of ashes.

Jumping into the middle of that vast storehouse, I submit Hillary's address to French fans when she was on her international book tour: "Americans are selfish."

In Hillary's own words to the anti-American Vishy French while she travels at taxpayer expense: "Americans are selfish." Hillary makes me puke!

Also, Communist Chinese university students, to whom she addressed in person (at taxpayers expense) voted Hillary Clinton's speech style the most effective style for propaganda. (Will cite if called upon to do so.)

Certainly, communists know best what are tactical styles for devious propaganda. It requires IMMEDIATE extra-gritty confrontational rhetoric to counter it because propaganda permeates.

[Gordongekko909]

Please provide citation on the French thing too; something tells me I'll be using these snippets elsewhere.

[purpleland]

Gordonge,
I have to hunt for the cites, and I will. I submit this article re: my allegation that Hillary Clinton is a One World Government advocate. The "Vichy French Connection" forthcoming...soon...after more digging...

Article:

Hillary, Cronkite call for world government
By Henry Lamb
WorldNetDaily.com
[Oct 2003]

Where was the mainstream news media when Hillary Clinton introduced Walter Cronkite to the World Federalist Association on Oct. 19?

Television cameras focused on Hillary's baseball cap; it is far more important that voters know where she stands on the issue of national sovereignty. Not until WorldNetDaily reported the Cronkite speech Nov. 30, did Americans discover that both Hillary and Walter are avid
advocates of world government.

Cronkite says, "democracy, civilization itself, is at stake," unless the "basic structure of our global community" is changed in the next only five days before the release of the Charter for Global Democracy which embodies
the version of world government preferred by the United Nations Association.

Both the UNA and the WFA have been promoting world government for system which would create a weighted system of voting in the U.N. General Assembly to create a legislative body roughly akin to the American Congress.
The UNA prefers a "consensus" process that takes into account recommendations offered by civil society (non-government organizations accredited by the U.N.).

Both organizations want to elevate the U.N. to world government status and empower the U.N. to enforce all international law. In fact, in 1986, the WFA filed suit against the United States over U.S. foreign policy, arguing that Article VI of the U.S. Constitution made the U.N.
Charter as well as other U.N. treaties, the "supreme law of the land." The courts ruled against the WFA in 1989.

Hillary's presence at the WFA meeting, and her introduction of Cronkite, directly aligns her with the world government movement, and particularly with the WFA's world government aspirations.

Cronkite called for the "revision" and limitation of the veto power of permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. The Commission on Global Governance and the Charter for Global Democracy call for the elimination of both the veto and permanent member status on the
Security Council. This latter recommendation will be presented as the needed "reform" to the Millennium Assembly next September. Cronkite's more timid approach, as well as his "federalism" ideas have been overwhelmed by the U.N.'s "consensus" process now on a fast track toward adoption.

Cronkite called for the immediate ratification of a laundry list of Rights of the Child; the Convention on the Elimination of all forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW); and, "most important," Cronkite says, the International Criminal Court, which empowers the U.N. to
prosecute American citizens whether or not it is ratified by the Senate.

Hillary made her support for these positions clear when she attended the U.N. Beijing Conference on Women in 1995.

Cronkite said in order to achieve world government, "Americans will
have to yield up some of our sovereignty." He said, "the notion of unlimited national sovereignty means international anarchy."

Under the world government scheme embodied in the Charter for Global to it by the U.N. National armies would be disarmed to the level of a national police force. The U.N. would maintain a "directly recruited" standing army under the direct authority of the U.N. Secretary-General. Private citizens would be disarmed, and the U.N. would control the manufacture, sale, licensing and distribution of all
authority is seen not only as the source of unlimited revenue, but also as a way to force a reduction of natural resources, especially fossil fuels, water, trees, and minerals.

Like the Clinton administration, and other world government advocates, Cronkite demeans opponents. He says that like America's rejection of the League of Nations, current opposition to world government is "led by a handful of willful senators who choose to pursue their narrow,
selfish political objectives at the cost of our nation's conscience."

He goes even further to single out the "Christian Coalition and the rest of the religious right wing" as the culprits who have kept the world in a state of sovereign anarchy and prevented the emergence of a civilized force of law" administered by the United Nations.

The fact that people of the stature of Hillary Clinton and Walter Cronkite are now willing to publicly advocate world government is an indication of their confidence that the world is now ready to accept their plan. World government is no longer the exclusive domain of the black helicopter crowd." Finally, the sinister plans to rule the
world are being exposed by those who expect to rule.

The timeline is, indeed, short. After decades of silent and denied preparation, the United Nations has made public the millennium year agenda which is crowned by the largest gathering of heads of state in the history of the world next September.

World government, called "global governance" by the U.N., will not occur on any certain day. It is a process that has been underway for years. The Millennium Assembly and summit next September, with the adoption of the Charter for Global Democracy, is seen to be the point
from which there is no turning back.

It is for the American people to send a government to Washington in the next election that can muster the courage to just say, "No."
­
Henry Lamb is the executive vice president of the Environmental Conservation Organization and chairman of Sovereignty International.

---

[purpleland]

This is not the "Vichy French Connection article."

Subject: Hillary Clinton:Americans Haven't Done FAIR Share...
February 4, 2002
World Economic Forum Takes Left Turn
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 1:58 a.m. ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- They came in solidarity with this terror-wounded city.

But since they arrived, speaker after speaker at the World Economic Forum has lambasted America as a smug superpower, too beholden to Israel at the expense of the Muslim world, and inattentive to the needs of poor countries or the advice of allies.

With the forum wrapping up its five-day session Monday, some of the criticism has been simple scolding by non-Western leaders. But a large measure has come in public soul-searching by U.S. politicians and business leaders.

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., cited a global poll that
characterized Americans as selfish and bent on arranging the global economy for their own benefit.

``We've not done our fair share to take on some of the global challenges'' like poverty, disease and women's rights, Clinton said Sunday. ``We need to convince the U.S. public that this is a role that we have to play.''

[purpleland]

It's from Drudge:

May 17 2004, 2:26 pm
Subject: Vichy France & Michael Moore in Cannes' Bush Bash

With amoral indifference to the UN/France Iraq Sanctions Corruption & Fraud:

[article]
From Drudge: Michael "MOORE BRINGS DOWN HOUSE: LONGEST STANDING OVATION 'IN HISTORY OF CANNES'FOR BUSH BASH FILM."

France is the best nation in the world to preview Moore's
hate-mongering films. France lauds propaganda from a nihilistic freak and embraces its own
corrupt collusion with the United Nations.

On her European book-signing tour, Hillary Clinton told her French fans that Americans are "selfish." By her gracious admission, Hillary re-affirmed the French anti-American attitude. Hillary didn't mean "selfish" in the sense of her own ideological objectives or in the sense of John Kerry's obsessive materialism and self-afflicted
elitism. I only know selfless, hardworking generous Americans. Undoubtedly, Hillary ONLY knows the selfishness of her ilk.

I believe Americans are too spiritually limp to produce a film exposing France's atrocious collusion with the U.N., France's "vichyoisse" nature and Pres. Chirac's reprehensible duplicity.

Value for value, neurotic and disaffected Michael Moore's cross-eyed focus causes profane distortions. Fortunately for Moore, France's ethical sloth compliments him.

---

[purpleland]

Date: 13 Feb 2004 23:37:12 -0800
[anon. poster's comment] Where there's a lack of evidence, of the indictable variety, to prosecute a democrat, then the allegations have been "debunked." However, any charge, any rumor, any hint of scandal involving a republican is a dire threat to the Republic and presages a Nazi takeover.

Regarding Hillary Clinton, a practiced liar and spinner, recently named "Mr. Tough Guy." She may have been named by Chinese students "Sing Poon Tang Yuk" - translated means "Propagandist Gets Clap":
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~­~~~~~~~
Yu Quanyu, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Studies, writes in the latest issue of "Ideological and Political Work Studies," a Communist Party propaganda primer, that Hillary should serve as a role model for effective use -- or is it abuse? -- of language.

"Communist Party cadres," Mr. Yu writes, "should study the speeches of Hillary Clinton because she offers a very good example of the skills of propaganda."

What the party apparatchiks say they love most about Hillary's rhetoric is a matter of technique more than content.

"Her sentences are short and stimulating," says Yu.
"That's why she gets a lot of applause.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~­
[anon. poster's comment]A little crap from Hillary gets alot of clap. Hillary Clinton spent her First Lady years promoting herself throughout the world - on the wings of American tax payer dollars. "Tomorrow the world governance."