Some More Ruminations on the Ammo Shortage

View From the Porch ^ | April 21, 2009 | Tamara K.

[ChocChipCookie]

Some more ruminations on the ammo shortage...

Die Time: In comments yesterday, Ed Foster mentioned "die time". This is exactly why you can't get, for example, .380 right now. At most manufacturers, the machinery they use to load .380 (which uses different "dies" to load different calibers) is only used for that purpose for a small portion of the year; the rest of the time it's used to load more high volume stuff, like 9mm. They churn out .380 for a couple of months, say, at the end of the year, and it's enough to hold the market over 'til the next winter.

Rumor has it that this past year's demand for 9mm FMJ was so great that Winchester didn't bother tooling up for .380 and kept the presses pumping out 9x19 ball. Even if the other two companies didn't do likewise, what percentage of the .380 market do you think that Winchester represents? Federal and Remington certainly don't load enough to take up the slack, and that causes the supply to crash to nothing.

Case Lots: Believe it or not, the kind of people that read gun blogs, post on internet gun forums, go to the range every weekend, and name their gun "Vera", are a small minority of gun owners. For fifteen years I tried to convince Joe and Jane Public to buy ammo by the case. I failed miserably. No matter how much you explain the price savings when buying a thousand rounds at a lick, or the fact that ammo doesn't go bad, most people would look at you and say "I don't know, $100 seems like a lot of money, and what am I going to do with a thousand rounds of 9mm?"

The ammunition manufacturing and supply pipeline is simply not set up for the average consumer to walk into Wal-Mart and buy two cases of ammunition. If your average shooter normally bought 100rds/month to take to the range and decided to buy two cases instead, "just in case", he has just bought more ammunition at one lick than he would normally buy in two years. Think about that for a second, and then multiply it out over several million shooters suddenly buying way outside their normal pattern.

Production Capacity: The manufacturers are running full tilt. The only way they could make more ammunition is to build more plant, and they are not going to do that for several reasons. The first is that this bubble will contract sooner or later. Joe and Jane Sofaspud are going to realize that they really don't need 10,000 rounds of Winchester .45 in the basement, and that minivan payment isn't getting any smaller. They'll sell it to Annie Appleseed and Ivan Ipsc and demand will cool down.

The second reason they won't build more plant is financial. Remember that economy thing? Yeah, well it's still bad. Business loans aren't really easy to get right now, especially for businesses that are square in the middle of the Media-Congressional Complex's crosshairs. When the stroke of a pen could cut your sales by 50%, you are not what lenders call a "good risk".

Supply & Demand: Right now prices are high not because of transport costs or raw materials costs, which drove the price spike of '05(really an honest adjustment, as ammo prices had stayed almost artificially flat for the better part of a decade,) but because of simple supply and demand. If I put my widgets out for $1, and the first guy that walks in the store buys them all, I'm obviously not charging enough for my widgets.

As demand stays high and supply stays small, prices keep going up. They will go up until they become high enough to cool demand. As demand cools, supply will build back up. In order to move the new supply, prices will come back down somewhat until they reignite demand. This is Econ 101, folks, and it's as predictable as 32 ft/sec² or π*r².

[ChocChipCookie]

This has some really, really good explanations for the current shortage of ammunition.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Ammo doesn’t go bad. I’ve got some “cartuchos” that came with an 1881 Argentine Mauser that work fine...

[b4its2late]

Last years election result is a good explanation too.

[ontap]

At some point all this excess ammunition will come on the market and prices will fall.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Outstanding and true explanation. Now, all types of lead are hot on the market because folks are melting it down to make bullets to reload. It's incredible. All we need now is a little spark to light the gasoline.

If you're in TX and need .380 JHP, send me a private message.

[Cuttnhorse]

Correct...metal prices are way down right now so the only real reason for the continued high prices is demand. I’ve been to two big gun shows here in Nevada within the past month and both were sold out of popular calibers within the first day...long lines just to get to the booth and lots of people, (including moi) with hand trucks.

I now have many thousands of rounds of all my popular ammo and will not be buying case-loads for at least a few weeks...just kidding!! I’m good for about 6-months.

[bmwcyle]

You mean it is not the evil oil companies holding ammo back on us. /sarcasm

[George Smiley]

I’d say that using .380 in a self-defense situation might very well be “die time”.

[JustSurrounded]

And, as usual, I’ve come too late to the party!

[SIDENET]

It beats poking the bad guy in the eye.

[SpinnerWebb]

ping!

[FateAmenableToChange]

“Ammo doesn’t go bad”

From http://www.thecmp.org/ammosales.htm

WARNING

All ammunition is subject to deterioration over time.
Customers should expect that 5% to 15% of the cartridges in any can may exhibit some stages of discoloration or corrosion or other abnormalities. As with any surplus ammunition, each and every round should be carefully checked before use.
Deformed or otherwise suspect rounds should not be fired.

These cartridges are aged surplus military ammunition.
This ammunition is NOT newly-manufactured, and is sold STRICTLY
IN “AS IS” CONDITION, with no warranty expressed or implied.

[LearnsFromMistakes]

I just bought a little 380, and can’t find anything for it. Well, almost anything. Like the article says, at some point, this will clear itself up...and then I can go shoot my new gun...

[KarlInOhio]

Case Lots: Believe it or not, the kind of people that read gun blogs, post on internet gun forums, go to the range every weekend, and name their gun "Vera", are a small minority of gun owners. For fifteen years I tried to convince Joe and Jane Public to buy ammo by the case. I failed miserably. No matter how much you explain the price savings when buying a thousand rounds at a lick, or the fact that ammo doesn't go bad, most people would look at you and say "I don't know, $100 seems like a lot of money, and what am I going to do with a thousand rounds of 9mm?"

The ammunition manufacturing and supply pipeline is simply not set up for the average consumer to walk into Wal-Mart and buy two cases of ammunition.

That's why there is a supply chain and retailers instead of everyone buying everything in bulk. Sure, I might save money buying a pallet of toilet paper or food or a couple hundred gallons of gasoline, but it's a nuisance to store and I am willing to pay for someone else to stock it... at least until all hell breaks loose and I wish I had some stored.

I call it Vera. (from the way too short-lived Fox series Firefly)

[Red in Blue PA]

“I’d say that using .380 in a self-defense situation might very well be “die time””

What a ridiculous statement. Nothing less than .45 right?

You do know that more people die from a .22 than from all other calibers combined, right?

[rllngrk33]

I just bought a little 380, and can’t find anything for it. ...and then I can go shoot my new gun...

I have the same problem with ammo for my .45.

[usmcobra]

More 22’s....

[ChocChipCookie]

You know, both my kids have learned to shoot their .22 rifles, and I was looking online for pics to show them of injuries caused by .22 bullets. Bad mom, huh? Those rifles just go ‘ping’, and it’s hard to imagine they could kill anything or cause a serious injury, but they could.

[DuncanWaring]

If you can’t/couldn’t find pictures, you could probably rig up a pretty good demonstration with a hollow-point bullet and a cantaloupe.

[George Smiley]

I *knew* somebody wouldn’t get that I was kidding.

Yes, I know about the .22 statistic.

But the numbers come from infections after the fact.