You can’t make comparisons to 2008. First of all in 2008 the political climate was totally different. Secondly the field of conservatives was very weak. This time it’s shaping up where there will be more quality conservatives capable of generating the funds necessary to be competitive. Many primary states are winner take all delegates. If all of those conservatives end up splitting the conservative vote a bunch of different ways then Romney could take a lousy 25% of votes from moderates and independents and control all the states delegates.
And WHY not?
It appears that GUESSING is allowed for 2012!