Posted on 01/16/2012 11:13:11 AM PST by parksstp
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldGdkRGN3cWVSTEpHbXczS0U2UlFDTmc&hl=en_US#gid=0
Simulated Results Summary (Document has County by County Breakout)
Romney, Mitt - 158,671/32.08%
Gingrich, Newt-127,320/25.74%
Santorum, Rick-107,722/21.78%
Paul, Ron-65,968/13.34%
Perry, Rick-23,324/4.72%
Huntsman,Jon-11,607/2.35%
Total: 494,612
This was run before Huntsman's announcement. Assumption is now that 50% of his vote total will split between Paul and Romney.
Also, because I overestimated turnout for IA and NH, I've adjusted the numbers in SC to basically be flat-line. Turnout was 445,000 in 2008, so a 50,000 vote increase wouldn't be all that. Anything over 500,000 though, may indicate Primary manipulation.
Some counties turnout were very hard to predict unlike IA, with some counties increasing voter turnout from 2004-2008 at 30% or more. Odds are likely that rate will slow down, but at how much, it's a guestimate.
Also, polls have Santorum slipping and Paul gaining. If so, for some reason, Santorum's voters are going to Paul before Gingrich. I'm fairly confident I have Newt's and Romney's numbers pin-pointed. Newt's only way of catching Romney is to go after Romney's voters from the 08 McCain pool.
Not really sure what Perry meant to accomplsh by staying in. He has only a little base of support. If I were Perry though, I'd camp out in Beaufort. Romney ran well here in 2008 and because McCain also got over 40%, this county is giving Romney a 6,000 vote cushion at the moment.
As for Romney, the projected victory is due to the fact that his competitors are unable to offset in margins in places like Charleston, Columbia, and Beaufort. To my surprise, the simulation has him taking a plurality in Greenville, which if that happens, he would win the state.
On Saturday, if you're looking for a "bell-weather" county, looks like Fairfield County may be a good indicator. They were in around the same percentages for the 08 Primary and General Election.
Anyway, this is subject to change as more information comes out.
No crazy colors in the Excel document this time. Template is set up that if you want to download it and project you're own county-by-county numbers, you should be able to without any issues.
I think Newt with a final week push can squeak out a win.
Perry, Rick-23,324/4.72% ..and these folks should stay away from the moonshine this week only
Meanwhile, if Santorum and Perry dropped out, Newt would easily win…
Very true. At this point, Newt has no alternative than to hang in there until Perry/Santorum drop out.
Oh that’s entirely possible. I don’t want people to get the feeling this sim is final or something. There’s like 2 debates this week, so anything can happen.
Like my other simulations, somewhere I’ll have underestimated looney Paul. I think I have the turnout nailed at 495,000, so if he gets any higher percentage, it has to be at the expense of someone else.
I’m surprised Santorum voters would go to Ron Paul. He’s been hitting Rick S. very hard. Plus, his libertarian views don’t seem to mix well with their social conservative views.
And if Newt dropped out so would Santorum! :D
Isn’t this fun!
Probably because Newt is neither.
Romney/Paul/Huntsman and Gingrich/Santorum are in a dead heat. Perry’s folks are the ones who can tip the scales.
I assume that Huntsman’s voters will all go to Romney, since he essentially has run to Romney’s left. I don’t believe that Huntsman voters are Paulists.
I count Paul voters with the Romney voters here, not because they would ever vote for him, but because they aren’t going to go to the Gingrich/Santorum side. Perry’s voters, on the other hand, probably will go to Gingrich/Santorum.
Actually, why are leaving Santorum in the first place? His voters appear VERY devoted to me. And then to go to Paul? If they were looking to go with who the media tell us is the most “electable”, why not Romney? (I’m seriously asking, not trying to get anything stirred up)
Well, I’ve spoken to a few.
They don’t trust Newt (because he’s a philanderer), and they like Paul’s ‘prolife’ stances.
These are the paleo-cons.
Newtbots are gravely mistaken if they think Santorum dropping out is going to benefit Newt.
Not necessarily. SC is also an open primary. The RATS and independents will be out in full force. Our primaries need to be for Republicans only. This is sick.
Santorum should stay in. He has more delegates and beat Newt twice. Newt should drop out.
Super PAC War: FEC Data Indicates Only Gingrich Can Afford to Keep Up With Romney
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2833292/posts
If Newt,Santorum and Paul Dropped out Perry would have a good chance of winning.
I was thinking of different drop out senerios and that popped into my head.
Seriously, if SC doesn’t get behind Gingrich (you don’t have to support him for President), who is the only in a position to take out Romney, then everyone loses.
Dang, I messed up my own joke. I meant to say.
If Newt,Santorum and Paul Dropped out Perry would have a good chance of coming in second.
Okay, this excuse is getting real old.
Please, Democrats have a hard enough time getting their trash to the polls to vote for them, let alone organize a concerted effort to vote for a Republican. These people wouldn’t know the difference, they’d probably vote for the same name again in the General just because they saw it the first time. Quit making the Democrats smarter than they are.
Ever heard the story of Roger Williams quest to form the “purest” Church? Have all the closed Republican primaries you want. It won’t solve the problem. In NH, it was Republicans that put Romney over the top. He even got a majority of self-identified “Tea Party” voters in NH.
The terms “Repubican” and “Conservative” mean different things to different people. Look at David Frum and David Brooks, these guys think they’re standard-bearers of Republicanism! They’d still be able to vote in a closed GOP primary and they’re not the only ones.
RINOs and CINOs are not just exclusive to actual politicians. There’s plenty of them running around that have “REPUBLICAN” on their Voter Registration Card and show up at the polls to vote in primaries. And their numbers are higher than what we would like to admit. But what are you going to do?
Newts people would probably split between Perry and Mitt.
As a Perry person myself I will vote for Ron Paul should Perry drop out and don't think there isn't a good chance Paul can't win Texas.
Ron Paul is the only candidate besides Perry who is socially and fiscally conservative. Santorum is not fiscally conservative at all and Newt is not really socially conservative. Perry and Paul are both.
If Perry drops out I would support Paul,Newt,Mitt and Santorum in that order. Santorum is a joke as far as record and experience goes and he would get his ass kicked by Obama. All the others would have a decent shot.
Its quite obvious that you aren’t up-to-date with the exit polls from NH - which also has an open primary. So, you can rant all you want, but, you rant in error.
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