Posted on 11/02/2014 2:27:30 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Democrats may be making their last stand in Arkansas.
At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats touted a dream ticket that could help rally the party back to relevance after a series of stinging losses in the state. They cheered Sen. Mark Pryor’s (D) centrist profile and strong family name. In the governor’s race, they hoped former Rep. Mike Ross’s long string of successes in conservative southwest Arkansas would boost him.
But months later, Pryor has trailed freshman Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) for much of the summer in the Razorback State and former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-Ark.) has had a consistent lead over Ross in the race for governor, according to public polling. Democrats’ best shot may be to pick up an open House seat in Little Rock, but they still face the specter of even more diminished clout in a state they dominated less than a decade ago.
“We're still swimming upstream here as Democrats. But when it comes down to it you've never seen Democrats in Arkansas work this hard or have a more organized, substantial get out the vote operation,” one Arkansas Democrat told The Hill. “Everyone realizes this is our last stand here. If Tom Cotton and Asa Hutchinson win it completes the Republican turnover here in Arkansas and it will be difficult for Democrats to come back.”
Democrats hoped they could return the state to its former glory days under then-Gov. Bill Clinton, but the former president’s magic doesn’t look to be enough to overcome the drag President Obama has been on Democrats up and down the board.
Democrats believe they still have a fighting chance in both races based on heavy investments in their field operation. But they privately admit things are looking tough in the state — and say if they can’t win with this ticket it may be even harder to compete in future years in a state that had held onto its Democratic lineage much longer than much of the rest of the South.
Now though, Pryor has led in only two of more than 20 public polls going back to the beginning of the summer, and Cotton’s lead has reached double digits in some recent public polling. Strategists in both parties say privately that the contest is considerably closer than that, with Democrats believing the race is within the margin of error and Republicans believing Cotton has a larger lead.
“They're really having to fight a guerrilla war,” said Roby Brock, the editor of Arkansas Talk Business and a longtime political observer in the state. “It's a tough environment for them and it's gotten a lot more difficult for them too in the last four to six weeks. President Obama's national comments have really been played up here, that his agenda is on the ballot and these guys are allies.”
Democrats have spent heavily in field operations to keep that from happening, and popular outgoing Gov. Mike Beebe (D) has been active in helping promote the ticket. Former President Clinton has also been back in his home state multiple times to help boost his party, with a final rally scheduled on Sunday.
“For us, this has always been an up or down two point race, and we have the capacity with volunteers and organized efforts on the ground to take it over the goal line,” said Arkansas Democratic Party coordinated campaign director Robert McLarty. “Everyone's writing us off, which gives us a lot of motivation to prove them wrong and show them three points is a movable target on the ground… We've been running into a headwind with the national numbers but we're going to win this thing on the ground.”
McLarty pointed to big early voting numbers in Pulaski County, home of Little Rock and the largest Democratic base in the state, as well as high numbers in Washington County, a Republican-leaning area he says they’ve targeted to turn out a large number of Democrats.
Republicans rallied with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R), Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam (R) and former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) on Friday. The stars aren’t as big, but they may not need as much of an enthusiasm boost.
Republicans argue that they’re doing just fine on the ground, and point out that while Democrats are doing well in Little Rock, the heavily African American Delta region isn’t turning out in substantial numbers.
“We feel good about where things are. We're not slowing down, Tom is continuing to barnstorm the state and meet with voters in all corners of Arkansas,” Cotton spokesman David Ray told The Hill. “The results we're seeing from early voting indicate Arkansans truly are ready for a change in direction in Washington and want a senator who represents their conservative values and beliefs and not one that's going to rubber-stamp Sen. Pryor's agenda of voting 93 percent of the time with the president.”
Arkansas Democrats are looking to a GOP-leaning House seat in the state’s center as a potential silver lining. Former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays (D) is running a strong race against banker French Hill (R) in the battle to replace Rep. Tim Griffin (R-Ark.), who is running to be lieutenant governor. Democrats seem more confident than Republicans about the race’s result, especially since the main focus of Democratic ground efforts has been in that district.
Nonpartisan observers say that Democrats have built an impressive field operation in Arkansas, and tip their caps to strong races run by both Pryor and Ross. But they’re doubtful those will be enough.
“If Democrats execute this perfectly and things break in their favor that's a heck of a story to write. I think their field operation shrinks the margins, but doesn't get them over the goal line,” said Brock.
Is anyone else amused by how many/most/all of the in-trouble Dems strenuously deny having been the deciding vote on Obamacare, while simultaneously insisting that theirs’ is the ONE seat that will determine control of the Senate?
Actually, their last stands are Alaska and Georgia. They must hold one of the two to hold the Senate.
Isn’t Bill Clinton famous for plugging anything with a skirt, conscientious or not? Freudian slip or just a bad choice of words? :)
I was quoting a headline by a Politico writer. Honest..
Ar-kansas is soon to be the land of Cotton...
Excellent observation, tanknetter.
I think they have lost AK, and may get a runoff in GA but will lose that too. The only one even remotely in doubt is NC.
BJ Clinton will be in Fort Smith on Sunday night at Northside High School. And he may or may not be as warmly welcomed as in the past—the NPS removed the nooses from the gallows at the Judge Parker Court House last week. The True Grit Comeback Kid is making a last stand against the protest vote—John Wayne Alamo. After the Omaha Beach 50 year anniversary while aboard the U.S.S. George Washington, a Newsweek magazine article had the Clintons invoking a “John Wayne movies” quote. Barbra Streisand may not be as readily available to kiss him on both cheeks as she did the “Duke” at Oscar time.
we would be winnning there too easily if not for the silly libertarian pulling votes from the Republican
Libertarians are the Democrats’ best friends. Bill Clinton became president because of Ross Perot.
Course, this is just a suggestion (/snix)....but Pryor would really go out in a blaze of glory if he got all the Democrat "stars" down to an Arkansas rally---
Think of it: Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid....and for duhversity.... Al Sharpton, Luis Gutierrez.
Plus Susan Rice, Jen Psaki, and Marie Harf standing by his side would emphasize Pryor's "expertise" in Democrat foreign policy.
ROTFLMCO.
<><> In Montana, Senator John Walsh bowed out after he was exposed as a plagiarist. His replacement: avowed “punktuator” and socialist Amanda Curtis.
<><> In Kentucky, Alison Lundergan Grimes won’t reveal her presidential vote or Obama, the constitutional right to privacy (more like her Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination).
<><>In Colorado, Mark Udall’s one-note War on Women strategy is so extreme, the press has dubbed him “Mark Uterus.”
<><> In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu is saddled with charges of dual voter registrations, claiming her parents’ home as her own, while residing in DC, raising questions of residency and whether she votes twice.
<><> But Landrieu stepped on a landmine when she trashed Louisisana voters as "conservatives" implying she had to dupe them into voting for her.
<><> In Arkansas, Mark Pryor couldn’t give an answer when a reporter asked if he approved of the president’s handling of the Ebola crisis.
<><> In Alaska, Mark Begich had to pull a scurrilous attack ad, under duress from outraged voters.
<><> In New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen is outraged by a Washington Free Beacon story revealing her involvement in a business that sold stolen goods.
<><> Big time loser Rep. Bruce Braley of Iowa is in a category all his own. His classless remark dissing Iowa Sen Chuck Grassley as "just a farmer" is resonating: months later, when Braley said his first call as senator would be to the Iowa Republican, the largely farming audience burst into laughter.
For reservations call 1 877 Vote NNC.
English is optional with pole workers, just a series of grunts and gurgles with a beep and a whistle, with a Mexican accent is all that is necessary to be shuffled into the voting booths in NC.
Of course, wearing Hagan buttons is a fast track winner, too.
...old times there are ‘bout to be forgotten...
Alaska would be a hold with Begich, but GA would be a take over as the retiring Senator, Chambliss, was a Republican.
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