Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) may win despite indictments

The Hill ^ | November 4, 2014 | Kevin Cirilli

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Even a 20-count federal indictment might not keep Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) from winning reelection.

Both GOP and Democratic observers expect the former FBI agent to win Tuesday night, despite a looming trial on charges ranging from mail and wire fraud to perjury.

Even without help from national Republicans, political watchers say Grimm embraced his legal woes and cast himself as Staten Island’s “anti-hero.” His Democratic challenger, former New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia, failed to offer other reasons to oust the incumbent.

“It’s part of the Staten Island culture — he’s like an anti-hero, that resonates with people,” said Richard Flanagan, associate professor of political science and global affairs at the College of Staten Island.

“He’s shaking his fists at the establishment. It’s Staten Island versus the world, so in miniature, he’s painted his legal struggles as Rep. Grimm against the world. That resonates here.”

Grimm was also able to tap into neighborhood rivalries. The district is made up of Staten Island with a slice of Brooklyn. But Staten Islanders have long believed the district belongs to them. Grimm has portrayed Recchia, who lives in Brooklyn, as someone who isn’t familiar with what Staten Island needs.

“Early on it was like, ‘Let’s give this Brooklyn guy a look,’ ” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “They gave him a look, and now they’re sticking with their guy — even with all his problems.”

The Siena poll released Friday showed Grimm ahead by 19 percentage points, 53 percent to 34 percent.

“The only poll that matters is tomorrow. We have a massive get-out-the-vote operation, and that’s where our focus will be until 9 p.m. tomorrow,” said Recchia campaign spokeswoman Sarah Weinstein.

A spokesman for Grimm declined to comment.

The indicted congressman’s favorability rating had actually increased from 39 percent in September to 48 percent at the end of last month. Meanwhile, Recchia’s unfavorability rating doubled, from 23 to 46 percent.

“The Recchia campaign has been all indictment all the time and people got sick of it,” Greenberg said. “It boomeranged and ended up hurting him.”

President Obama was also a drag in this swing district, Democrats say, which is by far the most conservative of New York City’s five boroughs.

While Grimm is poised to win big on Election Day, his charges will follow him into the next Congress with his trial set to begin in February.

Some have speculated that he’s eyeing reelection because it will give him a bargaining chip to resign should he decide to take a plea deal in his trial, Greenberg said.

Flanagan said some voters would support him “because they’re eyeing the special election that’ll happen once they cart him off after his trial.”

Grimm has denied the allegations, which stem from a health food restaurant he once owned, but that’s not the drama the Republican has attracted. After this year’s State of the Union, he was caught on camera threatening to throw a New York 1 reporter off the balcony, after he asked Grimm about the then-rumored indictments. Grimm later apologized.

The Recchia campaign looked to capitalize on Grimm’s criminal controversies, but any new policy ideas failed to resonate with voters, Greenberg said.

Recchia was also subject to gaffes in which he seemingly struggled to answer questions about foreign policy and trade agreements, both of which comedian Jon Stewart ridiculed in a segment on “The Daily Show” last month.

Recchia has received help from national Democrats, while the National Republican Congressional Committee and other GOP groups stayed away from Grimm after his indictment. Recchia has outraised the incumbent, $2.34 million to $1.96 million. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent a little more than $1 million on ads hitting Grimm, while the House Majority PAC chipped in $1.7 million to attack the incumbent congressman.

Following the charges, Grimm stepped down from his spot on the House Financial Services Committee in April.

But Grimm said at a campaign event in October that House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) told him “he’s holding my spot” to return to the committee, which a committee spokesman confirmed.

A senior Republican staffer to a member of the committee said Grimm’s return to the committee could prove tricky for both Hensarling and Grimm — especially if he is found guilty of the charges.

Grimm’s record is more moderate than Hensarling’s more conservative beliefs, the staffer said that Grimm would recognize he “owes the chairman big time” upon his return.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

I like the gem at the end.

"..... Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) told him “he’s holding my spot” to return to the committee, which a committee spokesman confirmed."

Interesting.

[grumpygresh]

I’m not from S.I. so I can’t say that I know many details. But, I can say one thing, the Federal government is so thoroughly corrupt that I wouldn’t trust the Feds on ANYTHING. I do understand that there probably are good people at the FBI, DEA etc, and they might be on the right side occasionally but the overall culture and leadership is a threat to the liberties of average citizens. The Feds are a large criminal organization much like the mafia was.

The FEDS are the enemy and are at a proto-Nazi tyranny stage.
FUFFEDS.