In the face of that crisis President Trump is taking a huge gamble. For the record, I endorse the gamble as the only viable hope to negotiate the reckoning to come but that does not mean that I think success is assured, or even likely. Nor does it mean that I think that Trump is entirely correct in some particulars.
The president is gambling that he can revive the economy before the reckoning by stimulating it with tax cuts and invigorating it with trade reform and protecting it by very marginal and mostly insignificant cuts. Unfortunately, he shows no disposition to address entitlements which is the only way that our debt crisis can be avoided, especially if GDP growth at about the rate of at least 4% (probably 6% to 7% will be required) is not attained. He is doing this for purely political reasons. Worse, he has campaigned on creating a new entitlement which, no matter how camouflaged as tax credits, is still an entitlement.
In addition to cutting taxes, keeping expensive provisions of Obama Care, he intends to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure. Finally, he wants to spend what it takes to revive our military from the grossly ill-conceived administration of Barack Obama. Every one of these expenditures, when coupled with the tax cut, at least in the short term creates larger deficits, enhances the debt and increases the need for Mr. Trump to win his gamble even while it lowers the odds that he will succeed.
When we talk about rebuilding our military is is essential that we talk about establishing priorities. Priorities do not come wholly formed, sprung from the brain of some great thinker, they come from assessing the nations strategic needs. The weapon systems should be created to serve those needs and that raises the question whether super carriers times 11 are the most efficient way to maintain the freedom of the seas, to protect our allies (if that is our mission-which is questionable) in Asian waters or even to maintain trade routes safe for China trade?
In making these assessments we should at least have the prudence to admit that our resources are limited, that are chances to correct mistakes are diminishing, that our adversaries are waxing in strength, that we dare not get this wrong.
I see the sequence for American security as follows: (1) restore the economy; (2) cut spending by reforming entitlements; (3) rebuild the military. Without (1) and (2) we will never have a long-lasting military. Indeed, if we get the military part wrong, if we overspend, if we misconceive our strategic goals and weapons needs we can actually impede obtaining a restored economy.
There is much to be considered before we wave the flag and conclude that we will sail into harms way with the Navy band playing Anchors Away
