Posted on 04/19/2018 7:49:48 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
A “Black Swan Event” is: “An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict.”
In 2016 the defection of Black voters from the Democrats could possibly be called a Black Swan Event but now Democrats are faced with the probability that it was actually a new reality.
In 2012 Blacks made up 13% of the electorate and voted 93% for Barack Obama. By 2016 Black participation in the election had slipped to 12% and just 88% had voted for Hillary Clinton.
The turnout and voting preference of Blacks in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections were virtually the same as they were in the 2016 election. In Obama’s two midterms Black turnout and vote was 12% and 89% in 2010; and 10% and 89% in 2014. Clearly the absence of Obama on the Democrats ticket made a difference.
Donald Trump’s 2016 victory in Michigan shocked the left not so much for its final result but for how it came about and what it means for the future of the Democrat Party. When the dust settled in Michigan the numbers so scared the Democrats and the media that they have locked the truth away and will not allow it to see the light of day. That truth is that Michigan was delivered to Trump by African Americans who did not see enough reason to automatically vote Democrat.
In the lead up to Election Day the signs of Black voter apathy were clear; but to the advantage of Donald Trump they were ignored. As early as August a survey of Black voters in North Carolina showed 34% of its respondents intended to vote for Trump. It was dismissed as an outlier; but there were other warning signs which were ignored by the Clinton camp. Black Democrat leaders reported falling enthusiasm among their constituents in several parts of the country.
When the occasional story asking how Black voters could be energized to vote for Hillary Clinton was posted, it was quickly dismissed as unimportant. “They’ll be there as they always have been,” became the whispered mantra.
While a case for Trump winning Pennsylvania and/or Wisconsin could be deemed “Black Swan Events”, the blackest of the “Black Swan Events” has to be his victory in Michigan. An examination of turnout and voting in Michigan shows “THEY were not all there,” after all.
In 2016 87,000 Michiganders,(more than 6 times Trump’s final margin of victory), did not cast a ballot for president. That was almost twice the number who refused to cast a ballot on the top line in 2012.Evidence suggests that enough African Americans in Michigan changed their usual voting pattern and opted not to vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton to deliver a slim margin of victory to Trump.
While there are conflicting data on third party voting among Blacks, the Roper poll reports that 8% of African Americans voted third party in 2016. This is significant since the Roper average for African American third party voting for the preceding five presidential elections is just 2 percent.
Support for the argument that it was Black voters turning away from Democrats that gave Trump Michigan, can be found in the combined election results from Wayne, Oakland and Macomb Counties which have middling to high Black populations. Their combined results show these counties voted 69% for Barack Obama in 2012 but just 56% for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Among the eight counties won by Hillary Clinton, one stands out as an apt example of the Black disenchantment with Democrats. In 2012 Muskegon County, which has a 14% Black population, voted for Barack Obama roughly 44,000 to 30,000 giving him a 68/32% win. In 2016 Hillary Clinton won Muskegon County by less than one percentage point and almost 7 percent of Muskegon voters opted for a third party candidate.
Recent statements by Democrats show they are concerned about holding the Black vote on their side. In ordinary times Blacks supporting Democrats would be a given. Nevertheless, the success President Donald Trump has had in delivering Black Americans their share in the ongoing economic boom makes automatic Black support for Democrats a question they have to deal with.
They are worried about the Black vote.
Democrats are already talking about Slave Reparations and claiming Republicans don’t want African Americans to vote.They know there is a Black Swan flying over their house but they don’t know how to keep it from landing or even whether they should acknowledge its presence.
Sounds more like a screech owl to me.
Turn out in off year elections is not easy to predict. Dems will try to stoke fires to motivate their voters and discourage GOP voters.
Because BHO was hurt by 2010 and 2014 , Dems expect Trump hurt now. But no talk of Red Wave in those years.
One thing I think Michael Medved got right before the end of the primaries:
Hillary was the only candidate that could not beat Trump.
Trump was the only candidate that could not beat Hillary.
Trumps win had more to do with Hillary than Trump. But make no mistake, if he had taken the typical politican’s stand when things like the “grab em’...” remark became public, Hillary just might have won.
And at the end of the day, I think it had more to do with God, than anyone. A strong argument can be made that this election was decided by divine intervention. Too many high profile democrats (and indiependents and even republicans) just assumed Hillary would win. It is as if the fix was in, except God decided it wasn’t.
This may explain the refusal to accept the results - to this day.
In 2012 Blacks made up 13% of the electorate and voted 93% for Barack Obama. By 2016 Black participation in the election had slipped to 12% and just 88% had voted for Hillary Clinton. The turnout and voting preference of Blacks in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections were virtually the same as they were in the 2016 election. In Obama’s two midterms Black turnout and vote was 12% and 89% in 2010; and 10% and 89% in 2014. Clearly the absence of Obama on the Democrats ticket made a difference. Donald Trump’s 2016 victory in Michigan shocked the left not so much for its final result but for how it came about and what it means for the future of the Democrat Party. When the dust settled in Michigan the numbers so scared the Democrats and the media that they have locked the truth away and will not allow it to see the light of day. That truth is that Michigan was delivered to Trump by African Americans who did not see enough reason to automatically vote Democrat... As early as August a survey of Black voters in North Carolina showed 34% of its respondents intended to vote for Trump... In 2016 87,000 Michiganders,(more than 6 times Trump’s final margin of victory), did not cast a ballot for president. That was almost twice the number who refused to cast a ballot on the top line in 2012... the Roper poll reports that 8% of African Americans voted third party in 2016... In 2012 Muskegon County, which has a 14% Black population, voted for Barack Obama roughly 44,000 to 30,000 giving him a 68/32% win. In 2016 Hillary Clinton won Muskegon County by less than one percentage point and almost 7 percent of Muskegon voters opted for a third party candidate.
Thanks jmaroneps37.
No wonder Cuomo and Holder want Black felons to vote.
Blacks are backstabbed and ignored by the Dems almost as routinely as Conservatives are by the GOP
Excellent point. BTTT
I would say that there is a golden opportunity here for the Republicans here. While the left is trying to maintain power by conditioning their constituency to interpret *everything* through a lens of racism, the Republicans could be hammering the left on its destructive policies and pointing out how Republican ideals benefit everyone.
But, sadly, the Republicans are too cowed to take such an opportunity.
Democrats are already talking about Slave Reparations and claiming Republicans don’t want African Americans to vote.They know there is a Black Swan flying over their house but they don’t know how to keep it from landing or even whether they should acknowledge its presence.
—
Who do the descendant of Anthony Johnson (b. c. 1600 – d. 1670), America’s first black slave owner pay (one of over 3700 black slave owners)?
Who do the Tribes pay?
Who do the black Africans that sold their slaves which were brought to America pay?
Whites ended the Muslim-originated chattel slavery, so why do they own anything?
Why are many blacks so eager to become muslims - do they want to own slaves or become slaves as they are in the Democrat inner-city vote plantations?
realclearpolitics.com
Aug 22, 2016
Trump Tweets Video Of Hillary Clinton Referring To Blacks As “Super-Predators”
Donald Trump retweeted the video of Hillary Clinton referring to black gang members as “super-predators” who need to be “brought to heel” in support of criminal sentencing reforms in 1996.
Clinton has faced this controversy already during the 2016 campaign. “Well, first of all, you know, I have said that I should not have used that word. You know, I was talking about drug gangs and traffickers and cartels, but it was a poor choice of words,” Clinton told the hosts of WWPR-FM’s “The Breakfast Club,” a popular black radio show in New York City in April.
During the heat of the Democratic primary she was inturrupted by Black Lives Matter activists demanding an apology for her use of the term. “Do you want to hear the facts or do you just want to talk?” she asked the protesters before they were removed from the building.
Bill Clinton was also confronted about the issue in April. He angrily told Black Lives Matter protesters that they “are defending the people who kill the lives you say matter.”
Host of ‘The Young Turks’ Cenk Uygur said in February that this issue should cost the Clintons the black vote.
Tail Risk Measurement Heuristics
Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2016
https://youtu.be/SEAcmRZUM5M
54:45
“The first part of this talk – The Law of Large Numbers in the Real World – presents fat tails, defines them, and shows how the conventional statistics fail to operate in the real world, particularly with econometric variables, for two main reasons: 1) we need a lot, a lot more data for fat tails; and 2) we are going about estimators the wrong way. The second part – Detecting Fragility – presents heuristics to detect fragility in portfolios. Fragility is shown to be ‘anything that is harmed by volatility’. The good news is that while (tail) risk is not measurable, fragility is.”
[the opposite of a “fragile,” System isn’t ‘robust,’ it’s “anti-fragile,’ that which gains from disorder/volatility.)
Nassim Taleb -
“The Black Swan” (2012)
https://youtu.be/33kET2YPWls
1:05:09
‘the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable events’
The young black man who requested 'reparations' in Starbucks the other day was mocking white liberal 'elites' like Howard Schultz. Bryan Sharpe, AKA “Hotep Jesus, is 'one of us - a deplorable'... conservative.
The biggest difference over the past 100+ years is that blacks are no longer owned by Democrats.
“Blacks are backstabbed and ignored by the Dems almost as routinely as Conservatives are by the GOP”
There, fixed it for you.
Dems own the media outlets and the education system K-PhD.
Never estimate them to be dead or defeated.
Expect a very BLM summer and fall.
“Dems own the media outlets and the education system K-PhD.
Never estimate them to be dead or defeated.” Which part of my piece said the media was defeated - I missed that part myself. All I did was offer proof that the Democrat hold on Black voters is slipping. If you want to dispute that, fine bring your evidence but please don’t put up a straw man argument about defeating the media to dispute something I never said.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.