I agree with you, but that is in fact a market call. Perhaps over a longer term; Right now, oil, which of course is a commodity, behaves like commodities do. Meaning everybody rushes to one side of the boat like teenagers at a Bieber concert, and they go farther than anybody imagines in their wildest dreams. Remember $128 oil? $26 oil? That does not mean that oil will not eventually come down, but on war fears in the ME, oil is ramping quite strongly. I would not rule out a sudden move to $80. It will go where few imagine it will go.
I agree with you. I see several factors pushing the oil price up. The M.E. war rumors are significant, and another factor is inflation. We may be about to enter an era of high inflation again, as in the 1970s.