Posted on 06/24/2018 9:47:46 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
Venezuela has begun to proactively shut-in oil production to cope with nearly replete terminal storage. This will further accelerate an output decline and bring them closer to 1 million barrels per day or even less.
According to energy ministry official data communicated to Opec, Venezuela produced 1.533mn b/d of crude in May, up by 28,000 b/d from 1.505mn b/d in April. However, this May statistic was a lie. Average production cited by secondary sources published by Opec report Venezuela’s May output at 1.392mn b/d, down by 42,500 b/d from 1.434mn b/d in April. Argus estimates May production at around 1.45mn b/d.
Output in early June has dropped to 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels per day, according to three PdV officials.
PDVSA is contractually obligated to supply 1.495 million b/d to those customers in June, but only has 694,000 b/d available for export.
The New York Times reports that oil workers are fleeing their jobs in Venezuela but are taking vital equipment with them. Desperate oil workers and thieves are stripping the oil company of vital equipment, vehicles, pumps and copper wiring, carrying off whatever they can to make money.
The Venezuelan government and its oil company are in default on more than $50 billion in bonds after failing to make interest payments since late last year. China has refused to continue lending Venezuela money in return for future payments in oil.
World courts have ruled that ConocoPhillips could seize Venezuelan shipments at refineries and export terminals in several Dutch Caribbean islands.
Previously analysts had talked about Venezuela falling to 1 million barrels per day by the end of 2018. This now appears optimistic for Venezuela. Venezuela could fall to zero oil production before the end of 2018. Dropping below 1 million barrels per day seems certain in July.
The implosion and collapse of Venezuela oil production could be nearly complete by August or September. If stolen parts and equipment cannot be repaired fast enough, then there will be even less money to keep workers or to fix things.
In March, 2018, Nextbigfuture predicted that the Venezuelan Maduro government would be overthrown in a military coup by the end of 2018. North Korea has terrible but stable conditions. Venezuela conditions continue to worsen at an unsustainable level.
The rapid collapse of the Venezuelan oil industry is in line with that prediction. The military needs to be paid off and if there is no money they cannot be paid off.
There is scientific analysis for the risk of a military coup.
Economic growth is a key factor. A Venezuela without oil in 2018 would have nearly -50% GDP growth in 2018. Some GDP at the beginning of the year and then heading to zero without oil.
Without money the food and the medical crisis both become worse.
So if there is a successful military coup, then the new leaders would need to cut some deal with foreign powers to the oil industry fixed and to get basic food and medicine worked out.
Our Media will go to the rescue! They will blame Trump for not bailing out one of our southern neighbors. They will prop up Maduro all they can to make it look like the USA was behind his downfall.
and many of those are now on their way here. Mr. President, please build the wall. Mr. Sessions, please close the border.
Rich Eating Well in Venezuela, Basque Executive Shows
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3435902/posts
Send Sean Penn and Danny Glover down there. They’ll straighten things out.
It’s been on the verge of collapse for three years. I read somewhere last year that roughly 5,000 a day are just getting up and walking out. The 31.5 million figured in 2016? I would take a guess that the population is around 28 million today, and by the end of the year....a million less.
Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think any of the military leaders really wants to take on the government operations job. There is a total lack of confidence in resolving the mess.
Venezuela is beautiful. A mess to clean up but the labor is cheap.
Is there a Venezuelan Pinochet?
Thankfully the socialists were swept out by a huge landslide though thousands were killed in the political violence during the campaign
it’s interesting news that yet another reason for slowed production is because Venezuelan storage facilities are full, indicating there’s a problem somewhere in the export shipping process ... i’m guessing the problem is that they can no longer use their export terminals in the Caribbean because world courts have ruled that ConocoPhillips can seize any Venezuelan oil passing through ...
that country is indeed on the verge of total collapse, but not sure an actual military coup is going to take place ... it seems like the government may simply grind to a halt and/or cease to function a la the passive-aggressive failures predicted in Atlas Shrugged, since it seems pretty much everyone, including soldiers and oil workers, are simply walking off the job and attempting to flee to adjacent countries ... will be interesting to if this kind of collapse actually occurs ...
Can you imagine what our southern border will look like after Marxist President Obrador has ruled Mexico for a couple years?
Who cares if they straighten it out, just send them down there with complimentary 1 way tickets.
We're done here. What is left is to convince Maduro and his supporters that it's over.
So if there is a successful military coup, then the new leaders would need to cut some deal with foreign powers to the oil industry fixed and to get basic food and medicine worked out.
Venezuela is now a charity case. Both China and Russia are owed billions; both now see an infrastructure so far gone that the investment necessary to get it up and running again in order to pay the existing debts exceeds the return on those debts. China can, for example, recover its $80 billion (or more) debt - for $100 billion. That's a non-starter.
But regime change first or the deal will be made with known thieves, and nobody's going to do that. And regime change will not be easy. The author speaks of a military coup in the way that a Harry Potter fan might speak of a new magic potion. The devil's in the details.
Yes,but as long as you have an oil crypto coin, the oil is guaranteed to magically appear out of nothing.
How long would it take a Bernie-bot in our White House to turn the United States into Venezuela?
The labor in Venezuela is not cheap. I spent too many years in the socialist cess pit to know better. They are some of the laziest people in the Western hemisphere. They steal anything in their path to compound the expense of companies trying to operate there
Ah, but it’s fair! everyone’s equally poor!
(Except for the ruling elite, which gets anything it wants.)
Nothing will change until the Cubans are removed.
And that probably Mexican president, Obrador, is urging Mexicans to invade the US.
We don’t need a wall. We need fortifications and ‘shoot to kill’ orders.
Any maybe to nuke significant parts of Mexico.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.