Historically, the incumbent President’s party does usually lose midterms pretty badly. The only recent exception would be Bush in 2002, but that was a product of 9/11 giving him sky-high approval numbers.
The difference is the media will treat a big GOP loss this November as an indictment of Donald Trump, like the results were an anomaly, something unique to President Trump because he is so bad and terrible. Even if the GOP actually gains seats in the Senate, they’ll still push that line over the House results, despite what happened to their golden child in 2010, whose presidency was terrible enough in his first two years that his party lost all of its massive House gains from its 2006 and 2008 wave elections.
Astute analysis and I agree completely.
More Russian collusion no doubt.
“...Historically, the incumbent President’s party does usually lose midterms...”
Not this time - President Trump is “a-historical” (meaning untypical) in a very very good way and this former pattern will not hold this time around!
(unless the ‘rats figure out how to successfully cheat their way to take the house - unlikely because the MAGA side will be motivated to turn out in large enough numbers to override the extra votes gained from the dead votes)
Barring evidence of an actual Trump crime, there will be no "big GOP loss". There might be a small GOP loss, if something happens/changes before election day. The GOP absolutely will not lose the Senate.
My bet is that the GOP will retain control of both houses of Congress, and pick up Senate seats.