[Pravious]

Our friend and great researcher @SHEPMJS caught this lie about the Mid-term generic poll. On July 23 538.com had Democrats +3. But apparently Nate Silver who runs it didn’t like that number, so he merely changed it to Democrats +6 and eventually to Democrats +8.

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Nate Silver is the guy who, on election night, gave Hillary a 90-something % chance of winning. In the nine o’clock hour when it was obvious things were changing, I think he changed it to 70-something. Then when Trump DID win he weaseled out of admitting his polls were 100% wrong.

[Political Junkie Too]

I will say this much in Silver's defense: his algorithm for determining probabilities was correct, it's just that the RCP polls he relied on were wrong. Silver didn't do the polling himself; his mistake was in believing the polls he was using.

Many of us here were following the polls and deconstructing them to see where the over-samplings were. That's why we believed the race was much closer than the MSM was reporting. It would behoove Silver in the future to not blindly accept the polling assumptions in the future.

-PJ