Only two Presidents have seen their parties pick up seats in both houses in a midterm election since the Civil War, Franklin Roosevelt in 1934 and George W. Bush in 2002. W’s approval rating was in the 60s in 2002. We don’t have Presidential approval polls from 1934, but FDR was pretty popular then.
Of course, we don’t have to pick up seats. All we have to do is hold serve in the Senate and lose less than 43 seats in the House. The President’s party has done better than that in two thirds of the midterms since 1934.
The President’s party has lost two or more seats in the Senate in two thirds of the midterms since 1934, but there are a lot more Democrat than Republican seats up this time, including a lot in Trump states.
If I had to bet, I’d bet we hold onto the House but lose seats, and gain a couple seats in the Senate.
If I had to bet, I’d bet we hold onto the House but lose seats, and gain a couple seats in the Senate.
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That’s how I see it.