Posted on 08/20/2018 6:37:13 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of will not be able to read this all the way through.
A report CBS probably wishes it never let see the light of day, says its polling “expert” doesn’t see a blue wave; in fact, a careful reading of the CBS report says a red wave may very well be on its way.
CBS has adopted the LA Times/USC Dornsife method of polling by compiling a large sample of respondents who are willing to be polled periodically on a continuous basis.
What CBS found is that there is no groundswell of voters itching to vote Democrat in the 25 “Battleground” Congressional districts it has focused on.
To give the left every chance to prevail, CBS has been polling only in Republican held seats identified by the left leaning Charlie Cook as “toss ups.”
Of the 25 seats, Cook assigns a partisan edge of +5 for Democrats in one and +1 for Democrats in another.
There are four seats rated EVEN by Cook.
There are 19 districts Cook gives a partisan edge of between one point and 3 points to Republicans.
In 6 districts Cook assigns a partisan edge of 4 or more to Republicans.
This means these districts already vote Republican and already have a Republican incumbent so naming only them as “toss ups” is based on wishful thinking.
In a recently posted article the New York Times wrote about the likelihood of two Minnesota Congressional districts flipping from Democrat to Republican.
It also added there are two Nevada seats, one Pennsylvania seat, one Florida seat, and one Arizona seat that could flip from Democrat to Republican as well.
But the bad news for those looking for something to be afraid of doesn’t stop there.
Last week the Politico posted a story that breathlessly described how the Democrats were “cutting into the GOP’s longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections.
They called this “another encouraging sign for the minority party’s hopes of winning the House in November.”
That’s where the good news for Democrats ended.
The next paragraphs told of a “big jump” in Democrat enthusiasm.
In effect, it said Democrats were now ONLY down 9 points to Republicans in enthusiasm at 75/66 in the “very motivated to vote” category.
After that the “report” reverted to the type of murky semi-sensical language the Democrat controlled media uses to hide the truth.
The writer immediately contradicted himself by saying Democrats are just 3 points behind at 75/72 in enthusiasm.
So, the question becomes why talk about being behind 75/66 first when the real numbers are 75/72?
Answer: Because the 75/66 number is the true one.
On top of this the Democrat generic lead is gone (yes, they are up by 2.25% but that is way off what they need to win back the House); and Black support for Donald Trump is at 36% in the Rasmussen survey.
There is no question that this will translate into an advantage for Republicans. African Americans want the same of life that everyone else does.
They want a job and a growing economy to raise a family in.
Clearly Blacks are beginning to recognize it is Trump’s policies that are bringing them closer to their goals.
They will support the candidates Trump endorses.
I see an Orange wave coming as there are 45,000 sealed indictments in he justice system.
I would suggest this. Since the black enthusiasm for Trump is up to around 36-percent (August numbers)...if I were the Democrats and blacks make up 50-percent of my District’s numbers, I would probably start to worry. If one-third of the blacks show up and vote....going against the Democratic candidate....it’s fairly bad news for the Democrats. They would have to meet in January and talk an entire new strategy.
We don’t want them to stop believing a blue wave is coming.
Shhhh.
Agreed, however some of us never believed there was gonna be one in the 1st place.
The media is too busy hoping for impeachment. Now they are assigning hope to the WH counsel, just like they did with Papadopoulos. Nothing burger after nothing burger.
Perhaps she was thinking of August 1914.
That one didn’t go well.
Sir Edward Grey made his observation about the lights going out literally on the eve of Germany’s invasion of Belgium.
Sure there’s a blue wave coming. I mean, history shows that the party that wins the White House generally loses seats in the midterm that follows. Mostly because of apathy from the winning party; if we call the blue wave done, we’re encouraging that apathy.
As another poster put it, we need an orange wave; senators and congressmen who’ll support and help the president rather than the embedded opposition.
Basically, will Trump voters be motivated to go to the polls even though Trump himself is not on the ballot and if so, will they be able to overcome the Democrat turnout which is motivated by hate - a very strong hate for our president that we underestimate at our peril.
Many Trump voters are not Republicans overall and while they will be out in force for 2020, we need them also in 2018. They need to realize that if the House is handed over to Nancy Pelosi, that Trump almost absolutely WILL get impeached (they will think of a reason later). So we need to hold our noses on some of these RINOS and either keep them in or get them in (to replace a Democrat).
One narrative being trumped up lately is the fact that Trump is rapidly increasing his black and hispanic support. This is a good thing. However, it helps him in 2020, not in 2018. I don't think a lot of those blacks or hispanics are going to vote the straight Republican ticket - even if they do vote.
In my state of Connecticut, there are your typical RINO Republicans running against the hard-core socialist Democrats. I'm not motivated to vote for those RINOs. However, I am motivated to support Trump and I will gladly cast my vote for those RINOs in November in the hope that we are able to flip the governor's seat and congressional district 5 (both have pretty decent chances) as flipping those seats will absolutely help Trump.
I hope that mindset prevails throughout the nation this November.
I feel good about our chances to not only keep the House but to actually gain seats (we are pretty much guaranteed to keep the Senate at this point). We just need to show up and vote (and ignore the noise from the MSM).
I’m curious as to how much a shift in black support can really help in the house. Even if people like Trump, it doesn’t necessarily follow that they will turn on their incumbent congress critter. Additionally a good chunk of the black vote is in districts that are so lopsided that even a shift of 20 points in the black vote wouldn’t make a difference.
I have more hopes on the senatorial, gubernatorial, and presidential level—I’d think Pennsylvania and Ohio could become nearly out of reach for Dems. Virginia is very hard to predict given the liberal tumour that is D.C.
The right technique is to keep assuring the Dems that a tsunami of epic proportions is coming and that there’s no need to even turn out and vote.
The Democrats’ generic lead still around 7 actually. Not that this means a great deal, but for the sake of accuracy, that’s where it is.
Does the shift in black support for Trump, assuming it’s real, translate to votes for white Republican candidates? (hint: no)
Massachusetts may have a bit of a mix with Governor Baker running for reelection with most likely Geoff Diehl facing Senator Warren. This will most likely motivate all types of GOP voters. The most recent slander of the police by Senator Warren will galvanize opposition to her with many police organizations quietly trying to defeat her.
Funny how that worked out.
Don't get complacent, get to work!
Still, get out and vote as though the nation were hanging in the balance.
The Cook Political Index (CPI)is an historical index. It’s a good metric because voters tend to vote the same way that they voted last time. Except when they don’t. Additionally, turnout is always less in midterm elections compared with Presidential elections. Turnout in midterm elections tend to favor the Republicans, historically Democrats stay at home for the midterms. These polls are showing that it looks like this year will probably be a typical midterm election and people will vote the way that they voted in 2016. That means another Red Wave, not a Blue Wave.
The media have been telling us that there will be a Blue Wave because that’s what they want to happen, not necessarily what will happen. More likely, the reports of Democrat enthusiasm are exaggerated and Democrats will behave in line with historic midterms.
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