We win senate by 4-5, Gov by a couple.
Bookclosing registration reports for FL for recent elections:
10/9/18-263,000 Dem advantage
10/27/16-327,000 Dem advantage
10/18/14-456,000 Dem advantage
There are now 4.68 million Reps and 4.94 million Dems registered this year. We have a MUCH larger pool of voters that can vote compared to years past - this is definitely part of what’s helping the EV/VBM. Only 4 years ago, there were 4.17 million Reps registered for 2014 election. We have increased this base by over 400,000 voters since 2014. We need to make sure they vote of course - one thing to be registered, another to vote.
It would not surprise me in 2 years time that the Dem advantage with registered voters would shrink under 200k.