Skip to comments.Back in March,Brennan Center for Justice said: Dems would have to out vote Repubs by 11 pts to win
Posted on 10/31/2018 1:06:41 PM PDT by jmaroneps37
Back in March The Brennan Center For Justice released a report on what would be necessary for the Democrats to win back the House.
They said in order to win back the House Democrats would have to out vote Republicans by a national average of 11 points.
They concluded that because of Republican gerrymandering of congressional districts across the country, (which became possible by the crushing defeat Democrats took up and down the ballot in 2010), the number of unwinnable seats facing Democrats and their "blue wave was just too great.
The G- word gerrymandering is never heard in the media.
It is too easy to check and not easily lied about so they leave it alone.
The Brennan report was published seven months ago, and was predicated on factors that were not dreamed of by the authors.
No one of the left (Brennan Center?) believed in Donald Trumps insistence that he could end 2018 with an average GDP of 3% which is now all but a certainty.
No one on either side would have believed Trumps efforts in Korea would bring us to where we are with North Korea.
No one on the left believed Trump would get 50% approval levels, let alone 40% from Hispanics, 45% from Latinos and such a thing as #walkaway would exist.
No one envisioned Trump campaign rallies week after week attended by 25,000 people with another 45,000 outside watching on a jumbotron.
Certainly no one would have known that in this election every Republican is really Donald Trump and every Democrats is Nancy Pelosi Maxine Waters and Chuck Schumer.
No one would have believed that making Trump the issue would help Republicans in so many races.
No one could foresee the angry reaction of Republicans watching the savaging of Justice Brett Kavanaugh and his fsmily.
All this and the careful gerrymandering carried out in Republican controlled states produced this discouraged comment from the Brennan Center.
Even a strong blue wave would crash against a wall of gerrymandered maps.
The Brennan analysis said: Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas were so well gerrymandered as to make these states unresponsive to a blue wave and Democrats could increase their vote share by 10 or even 20 percent without gaining a single seat.
Also in the report, The 11-point threshold hasnt been that high since 1982, when Democrats won the House by 12 points during Ronald Reagans presidential election, according to a USA Today report.
In responding to this report, Charlie Cooks analyst tweeted this in March.
"If Dems win the House popular vote by 10% and fail to take back the House, I'll buy lunch for you & the entire @BrennanCenter."
There is no indication that there is a huge surge of Democrat voting at least in mail in or early voting.
In fact it is the Republicans who are leading in early voting across the country.
Certainly nothing out there says Democrats will out vote Republicans by 10 or 11 points, let alone out vote Republicans at all.
The report ended with this note of resignation:
"What looks to be one of the most important recent midterm elections may turn out, in fact, to show how effectively extreme gerrymandering distorts American democracy and blunts the publics voice."
May the backpedaling begin. They know they’ve lost the Senate. Now they’re feeling the House slip away.
It isnt gerrymandering . It is the fact that the blue states are so extremely blue. Exemplified by the national margin for Hillary in 2016 popular vote.
Long liver the Gerrymander!
Long live the gerrymander!
What exactly are they going to run on ? The demon cats
To displace an R Any R. You have to have ideas that are better
Any place with an R congresscritter aint San Fran or new york
Its very hard to defeat incumbents I. General
Nothing to do with Gerrymandering, and everything to do with the geographic concentration of Democrat voters. Hillary “won” the popular vote while only winning a plurality of votes in about 15% of counties in the U.S. A Republican who wins a suburban district with 51% of the vote and a Democrat who wins an urban district with 99% of the vote have the same number of votes in the House.
The Rats literally waste 10% of their votes in urban centers. Which sort of lines up with all those 100% turnout districts that are 100% Rat. They CANT move those votes because they dont exist.
Block Illegal voters, and Dems lose 15-25 house seats, immediately...
Get tough on verifying the integrity of elections and stopping vote fraud and they probably lose at least another 5-10% too.
Their estimate is wrong, but in much of the country, the Demagogic Party is about to become a minority party for the long term.
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