The humming economy is not only boosting support for President Trump among union workers, Hispanics, and even Amazon shoppers, but it is his pathway to bringing in new voters, especially skeptical female and independent voters.
In a polling deep-dive of the electorate provided to Secrets, Zogby Analytics found that the economy is Trump’s best ally in the 2020 election and an impeachment buffer.
Pollster Jonathan Zogby also found that it is edging Trump’s 48% approval rating higher than the one President Barack Obama had at this stage in his presidency.
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“Trump continues to have a strong job approval rating. To put this into context, when we tracked Obama’s job approval, at the same point in his presidency, he was 41% approve/56% disapprove on 9/16/11,” Zogby told us.
“Trump is connecting with voters because the economy is doing well. More voters think the economy is headed in the right direction as opposed to off on the wrong track, and they trust Trump more than Democratic leaders to grow the economy,” he added.
While his polling found that Trump is in a tight reelection race, it provided a hopeful sign that the economy could help the president with two groups he has struggled with: women and independent voters.
“This is Trump’s opening,” said Zogby in his analysis of the poll of 1,004 likely voters, of which 36% were Democrats, 36% were Republicans, and 28% were independents or unaffiliated.
The Trump White House and reelection campaign have put the economy and job creation at the front of his 2020 efforts, following a model last used by President Bill Clinton. Clinton, for example, would make statements or hold press conferences every time a positive economic report came out during his 1996 reelection, a pattern the president is following.
Trump, for example, cited the economy several times while battling impeachment calls last week.
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Two key findings in the poll that will fuel that campaign tactic are that more voters believe the U.S. economy is going in the right direction, 47% to 43% who don’t, and Trump is trusted more with the economy than Democrats 48% to 39%.
The Zogby Poll has a history of categorizing voters to get a full view of a president’s support, and the latest shows that Trump is in a fair position with a wide variety of voting groups.
Notably, and in addition to his base, Trump has strong support among Hispanics, union voters, and those who shop at Amazon. “Trump is killing it with union voters,” said Zogby.
He is also pulling in older millennials and voters between the ages of 40 and 54, known as Generation X.
Trump also has the support of those struggling in the economy, a typical Democratic base. Zogby called that a “troubling sign for Democrats.”
His numbers: “Voters in the most economic vulnerable positions — lost a job (46% Trump/40% Democratic leaders), afraid of losing a job (48% Trump/37% Democratic leaders), at a job that pays less (51% Trump/37% Democratic leaders) and gone without food for more than 24 hours (57% Trump/38% Democratic leaders).”
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