The model has no intelligence. It is as good as the algorithm devised by the designers. It’s not even a “Model” of the real world. It considers a limited number of factors, while the real world has a huge number of them. It divides reality into convenient segments, while reality does not come in convenient segments.
So a model is inherently incapable of predicting the future. Sometimes the output coincides with reality, and sometimes it doesn’t.
Lorentz: Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.
All models are wrong. Some are useful. George Box
These CV TV models are being treated as Gospel. Because math . . . is difficult.
“.... a limited number of factors,while the real world has a huge number of them. ….”
And its sometimes very difficult to impossible to know how to weight these factors in how they contribute to the reality you are trying to model. Often its a linear model trying to simulate something thats non-linear which means your model will only be accurate (sort-of!) within a very narrow range of parameters. So you guess, hopefully and not be too wrong, but accept that you likely are and don’t fall in love with your model.