I am a modeler. The models are absolutely correct. They are not handwaving. They are not guessing. They are not wild speculation. They are not democrat propaganda. They are math facts, with uncertainties. But the fact that they posess uncertainties does not disqualify them. It qualifies them.
It is a math fact that if you did not have the lockdown somewhere near 2 million people would die. The error in that is not plus or minus 2 million. It is plus or minus a few hundred thousand.
The fact that the projection dropped from 100 to 200 thousand down to 60,000 is not a flaw int he modeling process. It reflects instead the fact that mitigation is being done, its working, and as that new data hits the model, the model rightly projects downward.
This is one modeler who advocates the following: the only way out of this is to give a prophylactic dose of hydroxychloroquine to every person who does not have measured immunity. Right now you only have a single-digit percentage of USA which has immunity. If you “just reopen” the economy, infections will skyrocket. But this time, you will not be starting from 1 person in 1 location. You will be starting with tens of thousands at every location. If you “just reopen” the economy, you will have slightly less than 2 million people dead, and about 20 million severely sick.
I am not a democrat. This is not democrat propaganda. It’s math. It is not ambiguous. It is not majorly in doubt. It is not a personal private speculation by a crazed handwaving academic. It math-fact.
The facts of this epidemic cannot be discerned by having the purest political convictions. They can only be understood via math.
If Trump reopens the economy, 2 million people dead.
If instead antibody people go back to work, and everyone else gets prophylactic HCQ, the pandemic can be defeated.
Sounds possible but at this point, I have become very skeptical of models. How do we know what is the truth?
‘If instead antibody people go back to work’
antibody people...?