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To: HangnJudge
12 cases in our county, 3 admits, 2 deaths...My personal experience is rather different

Do you believe only 12 people in your whole county have been exposed to the virus?

7 posted on 04/12/2020 1:36:02 PM PDT by Wissa ("Accidents don't happen to people who take accidents as a personal insult." - Michael Corleone)
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To: Wissa

Just going by official statistics


21 posted on 04/12/2020 1:52:18 PM PDT by HangnJudge (China Lied, People died, Never Forget, this Decade's 9-11)
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To: Wissa

The Judge stated that there were 12 x=cases, assumed confirmed by testing. If there were 12 confirmed cases, that means they likely sought care and were tested as a result of symptoms.

Logic dictates that of course there are quite a few more people who have been exposed, had minor or no symptoms or had serious symptoms but did not seek medical help, lets say for every 1 confirmed case at hospital, there were five more who got mildly ill, 5 more who had no symptoms and maybe 2 who had pretty serious illness but did not seek medical help, so for every one confirmed, lets say 13 more also had been infected etc. So, if my SWAG ( more science than the US Dept of Health I think) is anywhere near accurate, then 12 times 12 means 144 at that time could have been infected or suck of covid19 to some degree not including those who wen to hospital. Now, roll that up over time, say, each week since the first confirmed case, that ratio of 12 to 144 carried on, some in a few weeks the county could have possibly have had 500 exposed, but only 12 confirmed.

Of course, my math is just conjecture. this is why Iceland study of widespread testing makes sense while modeling in a math program means nothing but fear, overreaction and useless and harmful political maneuverings.

Lets test 10 percent of population randomly in every area, say a million tests. I bet the rate of antibodies shows that many many more of us have had covid19 and survived, thinking we had a bug or a cold or maybe flu.

Then run the numbers based on what we know from CDC reporting etc and come up with a real risk, then proceed to hang the fools advising our POTUS and get America turning and burning again. As it should have been since Marches Madness.


79 posted on 04/12/2020 4:13:12 PM PDT by Manly Warrior (US ARMY (Ret), "No Free Lunches for the Dogs of War")
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