Posted on 4/23/2020, 5:12:12 PM by grundle
On March 30, 2020, I wrote:
It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
It turns out that I was right.
The irresponsible, biased, and scaremonger mainstream media has been dishonestly and grossly overstating the death rate of COVID-19 in order to try to justify totalitarian lockdowns and economic destruction.
Here are examples of doctors and scientists showing that the real COVID-19 death rate is far, far lower than what the mainstream media has been saying.
March 26, 2020: “Stanford medical professors: COVID-19 death toll estimates may be ‘orders of magnitude’ too high”: https://www.theblaze.com/news/stanford_coronavirus_too_high_death
March 26, 2020: New England Journal of Medicine: “the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%)”: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?fbclid=IwAR3psHRYCZL1uIMKU2cJuSrpcc7SCs7kAIjjfDCmXqG_bOjcWd2Li-xXZHs
April 8, 2020: From a medical paper: “The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City)”: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1
April 11, 2020: The Economist: “Covid-19 takes 20-25 days to kill victims. The paper reckons that 7m Americans were infected from March 8th to 14th, and official data show 7,000 deaths three weeks later. The resulting fatality rate is 0.1%, similar to that of flu.”: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/11/why-a-study-showing-that-covid-19-is-everywhere-is-good-news
April 18, 2020: Stanford University researchers: “Between 50 and 85 times as many people in Santa Clara County have coronavirus antibodies as have tested positive for the virus.”: https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html
April 20, 2020: Los Angeles County: “Based on the first round of testing, the research team estimated that roughly 4.1% of the county’s adult population has developed antibodies to the virus — an indication they are or were infected at some point. Adjusting for the statistical margin of error implies that approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April.”: https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/early-antibody-testing-indicates-far-more-covid-19-cases-lower-mortality-rate/2349275/
April 20, 2020: Los Angeles County: “the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu”: https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/
I’ll give you another gaslighting lie: Colorado media have been stating “nursing homes’ are experiencing large number of deaths. The wife runs 37 of those types of facilities and they have only two with a handful of dead, but those deaths are inline with seasonal flu deaths.
The media lies about everything even the weather.
“...totalitarian lockdowns and economic destruction...” Which they will eventually blame on PDJT. He panicked causing this economic nightmare. You know it’s coming.
In my city they are testing upwards of 1000 people a day at this rate including weekends it will take nine years to test everyone
The media owe the viewers reparations.
Actually the dung beetles are planning two pronged attack: one is there is not enough testing. The second will be when there is a reamergence they will say he acted precipitously based on lack of testing. Would seem to me if they wished to be fair they would point to China as the source and we are reacting to an attack but they are not. They are a bunch of pissants. Were ohaha in office they would laud all he does even though he probably cannot spell virus.
NY state antibody results: 2.7 million infected and showing antibodies, 16,000 to 20,000 deaths. 0.6 to 0.9% fatality rate.
Only 21% showing antibodies in NYC, around 3 or 4% upstate.
Far from herd immunity, and not a low fatality rate. Our society can endure it, but it isn’t time to open up.
Sorry, up to 0.8% not 0.9%.
CNN just showed footage of a Jeremy M. Jack standing in line with his cart to buy groceries as a representation on their story of “How you can cope with your fears.” article. Problem is, that is video of him a long time ago shopping for groceries during HURRICANE HARVEY. Go to Facebook (I don’t have an account) and look his account up. You’ll see his rant. Someone needs to post it here.
Did you check with humblegummer before posting here?
Take a trip to SW Georgia and tell them how the numbers are lies. 3,000 population communities have 25+ deaths and most nursing homes have been decimated. Get back to me when you know the facts...
The empire strikes back!
You can’t do math? Your 0.6 to 0.8 is 10 times what my elementary school common core math comes up with. It is 0.06 to 0.08. One tenth. Is that too much to open the economy yet?
No matter how much you try to inflate the numbers, in truth it is getting harder and harder to keep people scared. I think people are not scared of climate change either because all the predictions keep coming out wrong.
Decimated means literally cut by one tenth. You can only scare people for so long.
There’s a report out of total deaths ALL CAUSES by country for this timeframe vs historical. Huge spike. Everywhere there are cases.
It’s real. Those people were not going to die anyway. Deaths counts all causes are far above historical norms for these 2-3 months. Yes, some are people who could not get treated because hospitals full, but that’s a cost of the disease, too.
It’s a compelling array of data. England/Wales spike March 7 to April 10 is almost vertical compared to historical total deaths same month previous years.
20,000 / 2,700,000 = 0.0074 = 0.74%
“Overwhelm the system to break it down and then rebuild it.” Saul Alinsky.
What better way to break the system down than an economic collapse?
And of course testing *everyone* , other to identify the maximum number of immunoglobulin donors, is about as useful as barking at the moon.
The left is like ‘forget Trump. Let’s do an end run around Trump and liberty-loving Americans and strike at the heart of Capitalism.’
Trump’s election has forced them to fast track their plans to destroy America.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.