Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

To: Swordmaker

Nope, it’s far from meaningless.

1. it’s based on the date of the first reported infection

1.b. the time to decision to lockdown is not unknown but a fixed known

2. the adjustment is about the daily deaths - it doesn’t account for population, but India is lower than China for instance, and Austria is behind Switzerland

3. It does - that’s how you take a reasonable model rather than have multiple variables

4. Again, a valid assumption

5. Again, that’s the variable - if you wish to add in more, that can be done - like anything you limit the variables otherwise you end up with thousands of variables.

It’s not absurd. It’s a valid chart showing that lockdowns have worked.

Clearly if you compare Sweden to Norway+Denmark, then forced lockdowns have worked — and remember that Sweden has had a non-forced but de facto followed lockdown


24 posted on 05/15/2020 1:27:27 AM PDT by Cronos (Re-elect President Trump 2020!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies ]


To: Cronos
the adjustment is about the daily deaths - it doesn’t account for population, but India is lower than China for instance, and Austria is behind Switzerland

Daily deaths per country is a meaningless number. Period. It is counting bodies. What counts is deaths per capita, or deaths per 100,000. Not just a superficial count of the dead! That’s meaningless. . . especially when you’re relying on spoofed reporting!

Just in the United States we now know for a fact that "daily death counts" were inflated by local authorities and hospitals. The CDC adjusted the actual TOTAL COVID19 deaths downward by almost 20% in the first week in May. Don’t believe me? Go look! Covid death counts were including EVERY cause of death the locals and hospitals could possible stretch to include, including all seasonal influenza, pneumonia, stroke, myocardial infarctions, normal complications from diabetes, cancer, and the entire spectrum of normally expected naturally caused deaths! They even tossed in a few homicides, suicides, and automobile accidents in the counts!. The MSM is STILL using the inflated numbers. It was actually how miraculously the curves recording the deaths on the CDC’s charts from those other causes of deaths suddenly dropped like stones off of cliffs when COVID19 was started being reported for cause of death! Seasonal flu and pneumonia nose dived! The joke in the medical community among those looking at the charts was that COVID19 was miraculously curing everything else!

Of course, it wasn’t, the bean counters were just counting every death as Covid. Why? You might ask. . . Simple. MONEY! The States, communities, and hospitals got fully reimbursed and then some for patients with a Covid coding. No Covid coding? Meh. . . More cases diagnosed= more Federal funds. Put them on a ventilator? TEN TIMES AS MUCH! Dead, even more! No need to test! Just write it down and they can bill! Killed in an auto accident? Distracted driver because someone said he was coughing! Must be Covid! Write it on the death certificate. Smothered your baby because you’re sick and tired of being cooped up with no place to party? Covid anxiety related death! Shot your wife? Ditto! Covid related!

CDC went back and adjusted all those bogus ones out. If it really wasn’t a real, honest to God Covid, by-the-book, infection death, they wouldn’t count.

They did wind up adding a couple thousand nursing home deaths in that had been classified as pneumonia, because post Mortem blood testing of retained samples showed they were actually positive for Covid at death, just misdiagnosed.

Then you’ve got lying China. It’s on there. Garbage data.

France has moved its first known patient, and patient death, back to November and first week in December respectively, again by retroactive testing of suspicious pneumonia deaths. So much for the chart’s assumptions of first known deaths. Germany has also found a different patient zero date, as has Sweden. These throw the assumptions of the chart maker into a cocked hat.

The assumption that mere borders, in the EU, in the US, in India, somehow create a homogenous unit for which singular data can be extracted and then treated as if it exists entirely isolated from the construct it existed prior to its selection is a huge sampling error on these data.

Just for example, the creators of the chart use a singular data unit for the United States, somehow combining the 50 separate political entities which independently made decisions of if, when, and how strictly to lockdown, and then took an ABSOLUTE aggregate seven-day rolling death count, combined from all fifty of these discrete and completely disparate political entities, and used that as THE singular data representing ALL those political decision making entities, WITHOUT BOTHERING TO ADJUST FOR TOTAL POPULATION, to compare with the also non-population-adjusted of far smaller population political entities’ individual seven-day rolling death counts, and you think that MEANS SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT?

Look, let me put it this way. Let’s compare cars. In the United States there are approximately ~270 million vehicles. Italy has ~55 million vehicles. Those are interesting figures. . . but useless by themselves. You need to relate those numbers to the population their distributed among.


The population of the United States is ~330 million. The population of Italy is ~70 million. Got it? Therefore, there are ~1.2 people for every vehicle. In Italy, it’s ~1.3. Now you can compare like for like on an even keel.

Another way, generally used with death counts, is deaths per 100,000. Sticking with Italy, the COVID19 total death rate is ~45 per 100,000, their data shows that fully 60% of those were over 80 years old. For the US. Using the non-CDC numbers, it comes to 26 per 100,000. If we use the CDC’s adjusted number of ~57,000 then it’s 17.25 per 100,000, which is an overall population mortality rate of ~0.02%! Even Italy’s overall population mortality rate is 0.045%.

and remember that Sweden has had a non-forced but de facto followed lockdown

No, that’s MSM reporting twaddle. They had compliant social distancing. There was no Swedish "lockdown". Schools and businesses still operated. Stores were open.

Further statistics show that most new cases in lockdown cities and localities, the infections occurred In locked-down and compliant homes. So much for your arguments.

25 posted on 05/15/2020 3:41:17 AM PDT by Swordmaker (My pistol self-identifies as an iPad, so you must accept it in gun-free zones, you hoplophobe bigot!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson