Somehow, Glenn Beck’s “The true purpose of coronavirus wargames” is still on YouTube. Shocking and illuminating.
The model was literally created over a weekend, in part, at least, by kids.
The infamous Covidiots on this forum have defended Neil Ferguson’s wildly inaccurate model because they claim the actual death toll fits into the lower strata of his predictions with mitigation, or that mitigation was more successful than anticipated. The old heads I win, tails you lose trick. I guess that’s how they’ll explain this away too.
As a modeler, says Kirkeide, you have complete control over what your results look like. The most important thing is to have absolute integrity.
What is absolute integrity:
Acting in accordance with your beliefs. Nothing to do with truth or science.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-absolute-integrity?share=1
I’m a member of the U of FL software team that is building a low-cost (i.e., under $200) ventilator for Third World countries. It took six of us working around the clock for over a month to get the software working for the ventilator. Only this week is it ready for FDA testing and approval. Anyone who thinks they can design, code, test, and debug a significant piece of software in less than a weekend is kidding themselves.
As a modeler, says Kirkeide, you have complete control over what your results look like.
Most reported models are magnitudes higher than what actually happens. That’s because the news media picks the one with the highest death rate to report. Nobody would read articles saying things are normal. They don’t print news, they print hype.
GIGO. If some college kids said “this is our opinion about what’s going to happen, people might ask them for their evidence and reasoning. But if the translate their opinion into a computer model, and generate some dazzling graphs, people instead say “should we write out the check for $2 trillion or $3 trillion?”
These “expert” or no better than the FBI. If they don’t have the outcome they want, they just change the evidence to fit their needs.
Neil Ferguson takes the cake. 100x off with the Wuhan coronavirus death rates, 1000x off with mad cow disease and bird flu.
Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, told Guardian Unlimited that up to 200 million people could be killed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke
Never use any model that can’t be backtested to at least reference data and the model’s use has to be controlled using only measurements that are available with the reference data.
This is basic stuff. You have to be a complete idiot not to know this.
Used Somalian mathematics?
Even worse, the academic in charge of this got her PhD from the University of Washington and her longest-running grant from the U of W:
https://directory.sph.umn.edu/bio/sph-a-z/shalini-kulasingam
All roads of this massive screwing lead to Bill Gates.