“Never use any model that can’t be backtested to at least reference data and the model’s use has to be controlled using only measurements that are available with the reference data.
This is basic stuff. You have to be a complete idiot not to know this.”
Bingo.
I worked with groundwater flow models and contaminant transport models back in another career, and it could take literally years to get a model working correctly...
And as you use it, it breaks for events not modeled in the reference data.