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The CDC Slashed the COVID-19 Fatality Rate to a Fraction of Earlier Estimate Used to Justify Lockdowns
Mises Institute ^ | 05/27/2020 | Ryan McMaken

Posted on 05/27/2020 9:57:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Governments throughout the world and across the US justified extreme, draconian, undemocratic, and unconstitutional (in most US states) "lockdown" and stay-at-home orders on the grounds that the COVID-19 virus was exceptionally fatal.

In March, the World Health Organization (WHO) was...

Governments throughout the world and across the US justified extreme, draconian, undemocratic, and unconstitutional (in most US states) "lockdown" and stay-at-home orders on the grounds that the COVID-19 virus was exceptionally fatal.

In March, the World Health Organization (WHO) was claiming that the fatality rate was a very high 3.4 percent.

Yet as time went on, it became increasingly clear that such high estimates were essentially meaningless because researchers had no idea how many people were actually infected with the disease. Tests were largely being conducted on those with symptoms serious enough to end up in emergency rooms or doctor's offices.

[RELATED: "The Experts Have No Idea How Many COVID-19 Cases There Are" by Ryan McMaken]

By late April, many researchers were publishing new studies showing that the number of people with the disease was actually much higher than was previously thought. Thus, it became clear that the percentage of people with the disease who died from it suddenly became much smaller.

Now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released new estimates suggesting that the real fatality rate is around 0.26 percent.

Specifically, the report concludes that the "symptomatic case fatality ratio" is 0.4 percent. But that's just symptomatic cases. In the same report, the CDC also claims that 35 percent of all cases are asymptomatic.

Or, as the Washington Post reported this week:

The agency offered a "current best estimate" of 0.4 percent. The agency also gave a best estimate that 35 percent of people infected never develop symptoms. Those numbers when put together would produce an infection fatality rate of 0.26, which is lower than many of the estimates produced by scientists and modelers to date."

Of course, not all scientists have been wrong on this. Back in March, Stanford scientist John Ioannidis was much, much closer to the CDC's estimate than the WHO. The Wall Street Journal noted in April:

In a March article for Stat News, Dr. Ioannidis argued that Covid-19 is far less deadly than modelers were assuming. He considered the experience of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined Feb. 4 in Japan. Nine of 700 infected passengers and crew died. Based on the demographics of the ship’s population, Dr. Ioannidis estimated that the U.S. fatality rate could be as low as 0.025% to 0.625% and put the upper bound at 0.05% to 1%—comparable to that of seasonal flu.

Not that this will settle the matter. Proponents of destroying human rights and the rule of law in order to carry out lockdowns will continue to insist that "we didn't know" what the fatality rate was back in March. The lack of evidence, however, didn't stop proponents of lockdowns from implementing policies that destroyed the ability of families to earn a living, and which also created social conditions that caused child abuse and suicides to spike.

But for more sane people, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Those who have claimed that lockdowns are "the only option" had virtually no evidence at all to support their position. Indeed, such extreme over-the-top measures such as the general lockdowns required an extreme level of high-quality, nearly irrefutable evidence that lockdowns would work and were necessary in the face of a disease with an extremely high fatality rate. But the only "data" the prolockdown people could offer was speculation and hyperbolic predictions of bodies piling up in the streets. But that became politically unimportant. The people who wanted lockdowns had gained the obeisance of powerful people in government institutions and in the media. So actual data, science, or respect for human rights suddenly became meaningless. All that mattered was getting those lockdowns. So the lockdown crowd destroyed the lives of millions in the developed world—and more than a hundred million in the developing world—to satisfy the hunches of a tiny handful of politicians and technocrats.



TOPICS: Government; Health/Medicine; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: cdc; covid19; fatalityrate; lockdown
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1 posted on 05/27/2020 9:57:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Anyone with a few neurons working knows that these lockdowns have been utterly unjustified since the second week of April.

By then it was blatantly obvious the system was not going to be overwhelmed and that all projects were grossly inaccurate..

As far as I’m concerned its obvious at this point that this is all political and has zero to do with health and safety.


2 posted on 05/27/2020 9:58:52 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s the Magic Masks that saved us! Karen told me so.


3 posted on 05/27/2020 10:01:58 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Just sit in your house until the food stops coming and then starve. You'll be safe.)
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To: HamiltonJay; SaxxonWoods

Maybe it’s nothing more than a Chinese junk bio-weapon. The Chinese aren’t know for quality control in their manufacturing.

They killed more dogs with their poison kibble, and made millions sick with their toxic drywall.

Are you disappointed their weapon fizzled?


4 posted on 05/27/2020 10:05:13 AM PDT by GOPJ (Plan for the worst (intentional bio-weapon attack.) Hope for the best (current plan)...)
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To: GOPJ

It was successful. We all ran to our basements for months and committed economic suicide.

Ya, it was successful.


5 posted on 05/27/2020 10:13:30 AM PDT by dhs12345
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To: GOPJ

And if it is a Chinese bio-weapon?

What then?


6 posted on 05/27/2020 10:13:43 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Just sit in your house until the food stops coming and then starve. You'll be safe.)
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To: HamiltonJay
"Its obvious at this point that this is all political and has zero to do with health and safety."

This Covid 19, B$ has never been about the science, your health, nor your family’s health.

You don’t really think that your governor gives a $hit about your and your families’ health and safety, do you?

You have to understand how necessary it is for the Democrat filth to restrict the First Amendment in order to prevent the opposition party’s ability to marshal an effective political campaign for the upcoming general election in November. Keeping the state impoverished and under house arrest prevents town hall meetings, candidate forums and fundraising events, phone banks, precinct walking, and most importantly, coordinating volunteer efforts to get out the vote. It also helps facilitate voter fraud…a Democrat specialty. You don’t really think that your blue governor gives a shit about your health and safety, do you?

#1: posted on 5/22/2020, 12:28:55 PM by USA Conservative

Once again in closing: This Covid 19, B$ has never been about the science, your health nor your family’s health!

7 posted on 05/27/2020 10:20:26 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (. The CHICOM/PRCNN, controllers of America's Fake news media, CDCNN, WHO, are the Deep Staters!)fla)
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To: SaxxonWoods
It’s the Magic Masks that saved us! Karen told me so!:


8 posted on 05/27/2020 10:23:43 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (. The CHICOM/PRCNN, controllers of America's Fake news media, CDCNN, WHO, are the Deep Staters!)fla)
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To: Grampa Dave

Between the faux numbers, lockdowns, nursing home fiascos and the war on HCQ, how many people have died or lost their livelihood?

That is the LEFT. Imagine if they were to get their precious New World Order? How many of us would they outright murder to get and keep their socialism/communism.


9 posted on 05/27/2020 10:33:32 AM PDT by Pollard (whatever)
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To: SeekAndFind
Although the CDC is a politically correct organization, loaded with Democrats and affirmative action hires, most of the blame for this fiasco falls at the feet of our CIA and intelligence community.

They missed the story completely. How could then not know what was going on in Wuhan? President Trump, master of excellent judgment calls, shut of flights from China, no thanks to the CIA. If the CIA had been doing their job, we would have a month or two ahead of the China virus.

If the CIA had been doing their job instead of trying to undermine our President Trump, we might have avoided this disaster, and possibly saved the rest of the world in the process.
 

10 posted on 05/27/2020 10:34:53 AM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie (Guide me, O thou great redeemer, pilgrim through this barren land.)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

RE: Although the CDC is a politically correct organization, loaded with Democrats and affirmative action hires, most of the blame for this fiasco falls at the feet of our CIA and intelligence community.

What do you make of this piece of information then?

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

TITLE: Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November: Sources

(EXCERPT)

As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting.

Concerns about what is now known to be the novel coronavirus pandemic were detailed in a November intelligence report by the military’s National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), according to two officials familiar with the document’s contents.

The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia — forces that depend on the NCMI’s work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home.

“Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event,” one of the sources said of the NCMI’s report. “It was then briefed multiple times to” the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the White House. Wednesday night, the Pentagon issued a statement denying the “product/assessment” existed.


11 posted on 05/27/2020 10:37:22 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (look at Michigan, it will)
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To: SeekAndFind
I don't know what to say. I'm gobsmacked. It could be that the CIA did know, but because of their hatred of President Trump downplayed the threat assessment in their briefings to the President.

Someone, somewhere has a whole lot of 'splain'n to do. Thanks for that article.
 

12 posted on 05/27/2020 10:50:48 AM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie (Guide me, O thou great redeemer, pilgrim through this barren land.)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

The damage would have been much smaller if Trump had followed his instincts and stuck to the Easter opening recommendation. He didn’t because Dr. Doom and Deborah spent the entire week leading before blitzing all media with doom predictions. Then they swooped into the Oval Office with their BS charts and put Trump into another vice.


13 posted on 05/27/2020 10:55:26 AM PDT by gibsonguy
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To: SeekAndFind; All

Because the novel Coronavirus was unknown, the fact that it was contributing in some way to deaths justified a temporary lockdown imo. The associated quarantine became 2 weeks in this case, based on the stealth, contagious incubation period of that virus.

Consider that if the SARS-CoV-2 was actually a harmless placebo virus intended to conduct a global virus lockdown drill, that basically few countries had a real plan in place to deal with it, the US caught unprepared too.

The US screwed things up, partly a consequence of desperate “Orange Man Bad” Democrats evidently unthinkingly trying to weaponize virus against PDJT in an election year.

That said, PDJT has stated that he looks forward to rebuilding FDA, CDC, the medical support and drug industries like he has rebuilt military.

Send “Orange Man Bad” federal and state government Democrats and RINOs home in November!

Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping SARS-CoV-2 will effectively give fast-working Trump a “third term” in office imo.


14 posted on 05/27/2020 11:07:12 AM PDT by Amendment10
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To: SeekAndFind

But as late as February 29th, Dr. Fauci, king of the scientists, said...Don’t worry about it. Just go on with your lives.


15 posted on 05/27/2020 11:16:20 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: Pollard

That is the LEFT. Imagine if they were to get their precious New World Order? How many of us would they outright murder to get and keep their socialism/communism.


16 posted on 05/27/2020 11:31:32 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (. The CHICOM/PRCNN, controllers of America's Fake news media, CDCNN, WHO, are the Deep Staters!)fla)
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To: SeekAndFind

“How could they not know what was going on in Wuhan”

For sure

I mean-with all the money, technology and personnel resources at their disposal... they ought to know the name of every single street in Wuhan, ever single business and the price of a cup of tea!

But NO... the were working their OWN agenda instead.


17 posted on 05/27/2020 11:41:05 AM PDT by SMARTY ("Nobility is defined by the demands it makes on us - by obligations, not by rights".)
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To: Pollard

There is another serious problem for today and weeks out.

Most hospitals have shut down their same day care centers. We have friends across the state/US who have not been able to get cancer radiation and other outpatient treatment. Same day surgeries have been postponed to ?????

Patients, who had strokes, stents, and other issues needing followup in a good outpatient clinic are not getting any treatment as the centers are closed or open on a limited basis.

This backlog of untreated patients will kill or seriously harm more people than CV19 did and will do.

The Karens did their jobs of neutralizing our excellent same day centers in most hospitals across America.


18 posted on 05/27/2020 11:55:39 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (. The CHICOM/PRCNN, controllers of America's Fake news media, CDCNN, WHO, are the Deep Staters!)fla)
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To: Grampa Dave

“Children of the Karen”


19 posted on 05/27/2020 12:16:03 PM PDT by Zathras
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To: Zathras

Yes, and they are slithering around previous conservative web site pushing their Karenism!


20 posted on 05/27/2020 12:31:16 PM PDT by Grampa Dave ( The CHICOM/PRCNN, controllers of America's Fake news media, CDCNN, WHO, are the Deep Staters!)!!!)
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