Oregon’s model was thought up in a pot shop
In late March we went into quarantine because we needed to “flatten the curve”.
Why are we still in quarantine?
Hiderocker
Must be nice to be a graduate student masguerading as a scientist and not even follow the science or worse:
I supposed scientist, who been trusted and made up his whole report with scientific basis what so ever....
We supposedly live in a scientific age, yet the vast majority of people live with at best an 18th century understanding of science. Even worse than that is that we fail to apply the scientific method. The CDC failed early in the pandemic to apply the scientific method in the first month of the outbreak. If they had done some random sampling early on, they could have accurately discovered the true CFR for Covid19 and thus avoided destroying the economy.
“ALL models are inaccurate, though some are useful”, is an old adage I have followed throughout more than half a century of developing, using, and making decisions based on the useful ones. A key is determining which models are NOT useful, and then ignoring them.
Model “predictions” (I use the word “calculations”) are mostly irrelevant. The most important result of modelling is to give knowledgeable decision makers deeper insight into the process being modelled. It is that insight that makes decisions more accurate. This part of the process is sorely lacking with the virus modelling stories we see today in the news. Ignore them.
It was also driven by Neil Ferguson’s doomer disease model. Despite the fact he had a history of doomer disease models.
From 2005
Bird flu pandemic ‘could kill 150m’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke
And he predicted up to 50,000 dead from mad cow disease and said beware the sheep ...