Posted on 08/30/2020 11:49:57 AM PDT by Nostradumbass
The US is well past the Covid-19 herd immunity threshold (HIT). The model predicted it. The model declared it. The post-HIT case and death trends confirm it. The US has now begun its final descent toward zero deaths. The US economy was destroyed for no good reason.
After the “mostly peaceful” protests began, some states experienced surges in Covid-19 case counts while others did not. This dichotomy signaled that some states had reached their HIT while others had not, thereby providing the basis for a forecasting model of the US HIT.
The regression model utilized (x) the percentage differential of current daily cases from peak daily cases at the state level and (y) current cumulative cases at the state level to derive a correlation between the two. That correlation was then extrapolated to predict the HIT at the national level.
July 2: The model predicts US HIT by the end of July. July 24: The model declares US HIT has been achieved. July 25: The 7-day moving average (MA) of US daily new cases peaks. August 4: The 7-day MA of US daily new deaths peaks.
Herd immunity was always inevitable. Social distancing flattened the curve but also lengthened the curve. When social distancing relaxed, the curve became distorted with the so-called “second wave”. But this second wave also pushed the US past the HIT.
Currently the 7-day MA of daily new cases is 39% below its peak and the 7-day MA of daily new deaths is 18% below its second wave peak. Both are trending down nicely as would be expected after having achieved HIT.
Fear mongering of a “third wave” has begun but with HIT having been achieved, a third wave of deaths is precluded (a probable back-to-school distortion in cases notwithstanding). The worst of Covid-19 in the US is over and the end is in sight.
The model is now indicating 66% of the US population has achieved immunity (whether due to a prior virus or Covid-19) which implies an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio of 35:1. This is why daily case count continues to drop, even with the headwind of increasingly relaxed social distancing.
The model is further predicting that total US Covid-19 deaths will be 215,000 and that deaths will be negligible by October 27. That means the US is 87% of the way toward the end of deaths. Some states like New York (which reached HIT earlier than most) are already at or near zero daily deaths.
Fauci and friends will continue to deny that Covid-19 that we have reached herd immunity because the alternative would be having to admit they destroyed the US economy for no good reason. But Sweden’s success in accepting the inevitability of herd immunity is there for all to see.
Sweden has a lower Covid-19 death rate than does Belgium, Spain, the UK, and Italy. Sweden’s death rate stands at 576 per million of population. That of the US is nearly identical at 564. The only difference is that Sweden is done with Covid-19 deaths while the US is still experiencing significant Covid-19 deaths.
Sweden’s 2Q20 GDP decline was 9% while the US 2Q20 GDP decline was 34%. Given that the US will soon have a higher Covid-19 death rate, that is a devastating GDP differential. Shutting down the US economy was, at best, the worst economic blunder in history.
Now the CDC says that only 6% of the counted Covid-19 deaths had no other comorbidities. So based on the predicted total deaths, we can expect only 13,000 deaths due solely to Covid-19. The other 94% of counted deaths had an average of 2.6 comorbidities. WTF…
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“The model”
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Which model?
So watch, the left will now say President Trump shut the country down for no good reason and caused people to lose their jobs. IT WON’T WORK LEFTY SCUM!
“I was drivin’ that Model A
It’s got a Lincoln motor and it’s really souped up.
That Model A body makes it look like a pup.
It’s got eight cylinders; uses them all”
Not sure this is accurate. But, why not?
It’s absolute nonsense.duh
US deaths are down to 9200
If ever their was a time for civil disobedience this was it. But we failed to answer the call. I sure hope this teaches us a lesson and we wise the f*** up, and fight for our freedoms next time.
Make your case.
The media-hyped hysteria ends on Nov 4th.
Except the CDC and NIH are still playing fun with numbers. In Alabama they are reporting probable cases.
Near as I can tell the guy just recently joined FR and he keeps posting this, nothing else.
The serology wackos are in love with the concept of immunity.
Smallpox was around for centuries. A virus. Centuries for there to be immunity, to a virus 70% survived. But there it was, for centuries until a vaccine erased it.
New York had a huge spike in disease events and now it has fallen to very low numbers. Immunity? How about the more obvious answer. Ridership in subways is at 25% of 2019 levels. Ditto the commuter trains. And the Long Island Rail Road. 25% of 2019 levels. The city is nearly empty. It’s hard to infect and kill people who are not there.
Lockdown didn’t destroy the economy. There is no prohibition on riding the subway or trains. You can if you want. People won’t do it because they sort of don’t want to murder their parents. People lock themselves down.
Lockdown didn’t destroy the economy. The virus did.
Somebody’s spreadsheet, I guess.
Seasonal effects considered?
Poster joined this month and first posted 9 days ago...
suddenly on nov 4, which ever way the wind blows, the nfl, the nba, all of college and all schools will suddenly be allowed to open fully, and all restaurants, and all the panic demics will rejoice that our masks saved the day and destroyed the mean old covid...
It’s September already! Get real hoaxsters!
What exactly is going on in Alabama?
According to Worldometer, the number of Dailey New Cases has been going up since August 17th.
Most other states are going down.
What's up there?
Son, you’re gonna drive me to drink’n if you don’t stop drive’n that Hot. Rod. Lincoln!
Very simply. Anyone with a small amount of education knows that herd immunity does not attach until the percentage of positive infection reached between 65 and 90 %, depending on which scientists you believe.
Current positivity amounts are about 2%.
If herd immunity already existed people would not keep getting infected. The fact that they still are infected proves conclusively that herd immunity does not exist and won’t exist until sufficient people are positive either thru infection or immunization.
This is not rocket science.
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