Posted on 09/15/2020 6:44:01 PM PDT by byecomey
Several states have begun releasing reports on voters who have requested vote-by-mail (VBM) ballots. North Carolina, in particular, has begun publishing a daily report here.
Lockdowns have driven a surge in demand for mail-in voting. North Carolina’s mail-in requests currently stand at over fourteen times the demand at the same time in 2016.
In 2016, Republicans had the advantage, requesting forty percent of all VBM ballots to the Democrats’ thirty-one percent. In 2020, Democrats hold a commanding advantage: having fifty-one percent of all VBMs to the Republicans’ 16 percent. The charts below show the difference:
2016 vs. 2020 VBM makeup. Don’t panic. This is actually bad news for Joe.
Should Republicans toss in the towel then?
No! Actually, Joe Biden needs to throw in the towel.
I will explain why.
It is well known that the MSM has made a massive push to get Americans to vote by mail. Thus far, this push has been effective on Democrats, but not so much Republican. Nate Silver says:
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)
The percent of Democrats intending to vote by mail rises to 57% in battleground states, which have remained locked down for the most part. Source
Polls show that Democrats strongly believe that voting is a health risk.
Sixty-three percent of Democrats believe voting is dangerous Source
Given these priors, it seems exceedingly unlikely that Democrats are inclined to go out and vote during Election Day. Joe Biden must get the majority of Democrats to vote by mail!
So what voting methods will voters take? Here’s what a poll says:
The surveys are consistent:
What does that mean for North Carolina ballots? Well, we can take the numbers from 2016 and extrapolate them to figure out target turnouts for Joe Biden based on stated voter preferences.
First, we find out how many people in each registered party voted in 2016 Source:
In 2016, 1,872,593 Democrats voted in the election, compared to 1,571,730 Republicans and 1,305,330 Independents. Assuming the respective parties voted for their respective candidate at 100%, independents broke strongly for the Republicans.
We can use these numbers to establish target baselines for each party to reach 2016 turnout levels using stated voting by mail preferences.
| 2016 NC turnout | VBM % (estimate) | 2020 NC VBM target to match 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 1,872,593 | 50% | 936,296 |
| Republicans | 1,571,730 | 18% | 282,911 |
| Independents | 1,305,330 | 33% | 430,758 |
Using the published reports, we can detect the linear trends and make a projection as to how the parties are currently tracking.
We capture the projections to October 27th, the last day a ballot can be requested, and find the following.
| 2020 NC VBM target to match 2016 | Currently on track for… | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 936,296 | 761,992 | -174,304 (Severely underperform) |
| Republicans | 282,911 | 288,630 | +5,719 (Slightly Outperform) |
| Independents | 430,758 | 513,106 | +82,348 (Well Outperform) |
In short:
The above models were using optimistic assumptions - that only 50% of Democrats intend to vote by mail (polls indicate closer to 55%), whereas 18% of Republicans intend to VBM (recent polling shows this number can be as low as 11%).
When these other factors are considered, Joe Biden is done… maybe even 1984 done… but if and only if Republicans can deliver on their Election Day and early voting GOTV efforts.
The media will be trumpeting the mail-in voting numbers as if they are portending a doomsday scenario for Trump. You can smile and know they are in for a nasty surprise on Election Night.
Stay on top of mail-in statistics. Have a model turnout in mind for each state and each district, and stay on top of any deviations or funny games.
Double down on GOTV efforts. Joe Biden’s nightmare scenario can happen IF AND ONLY IF the Republicans match their 2016 turnout.
Communicate these news to supporters. The media will be attempting to demoralize Trump supporters with misleading statistics. Don’t let them
The tread is steady, and Democrats are actually decelerating in sending ballot requests relative to the first weeks.
Historically, Republicans have sent mail-in requests later in the election and this trend is playing out again. It’s not visible on the graph, but the gap is closing slightly.
The same effect is present in FL.
NC churches should be open by November...
No, the author is saying that Biden needs a massive wave to vote by mail to win the election, and they just aren’t there.
If Trump can achieve anywhere close to his 2016 figures, it’s game over.
Maybe. But if something — widespread riots, or perhaps a failure of the power grids outside of major cities in a few swing states — causes a sharp decline in in person voting on Election Day, the left will have far less to worry about, because their votes will have already been cast.
I think this convoluted assessment might have merit. Another factor will be seniors not voting in person in much larger numbers. This could make a difference as the older folks are a dependable electorate.
Not sure who it helps though.
Only a handful of states publish this kind of detailed analysis. NC is one of the earliest and most detailed.
Florida is another state. If I recall, there was a guy in 2016 who kept this amazing spreadsheet comparing all the Florida county on a daily basis. Ravi might remember who he is. He should change his methodology to track VBM as a percentage of total 2016 turnout rather than as a percentage of 2016 VBM turnout.
I haven’t analyzed FL yet, but the trends seem to be similar.
A whole lot of close elections are won/lost due to weather.
This scenario disregards post election vote discovery. That’s how the Democrats expect to win. They plan on going from 400+ electoral votes for Trump on election night to less than the 270 needed by the end of the year.
Yes, hence the blurb at the end that this is all dependent on GOTV game being as strong as 2016. But they’re in a big blind spot right now where they’re drinking their own Kool-aid and not firing up the ballot printing presses because they’re comfortable with the topline stats.
Democrats must be well aware of this deficit, in which case expect them to take corrective action to make up for it.
Very encouraging. Thanks for doing the research and posting.
I would bet you that they are not looking beyond the top-line “oh wow we’re doing way better than Republicans in VBM” numbers. Quarantine is likely affecting this in the sense that nobody is gathering their organic thoughts together and many professionals are watching Netflix all day.
In NC they send you a request form that you have to mail back to get a ballot. My daughter’s apartment was damaged in a storm. Her mail was trashed, soaked. In it were numerous ballot requests sent to former tenets. Considering the lease is annual, they were sending ballot requests to people who had not lived there for six or more years. Independents and Republicans are physically going to the polls. Many of those millions of ballot requests are going to the trash. It is obvious how the system could be abused. I could have mailed in those ballot requests, then voted for Trump on each of them. While this may happen, I do not believe it could change the State result if Trump supporters go to the polls.
They’re already preparing their excuses for the inevitable loss. 2016 was “Russian hackers”. 2020 will be “I would have voted but the Drumpf virus stopped me!”
Not convulted.
Democrats are too scared by COVID-19 to vote in person, thus, they must have big vote by mail numbers.
The trends simply are not there to get them where they need to be.
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Progs did this to themselves by scaring the stuffing out of their base.
Painting themselves into yet another corner.
Been 16 years since I did any campaign work.
Do the parties still keep Voter Vaults that track votes as they come in?
I’ve run across some in various states (usually spreadsheets and no longer capable of being opened)as I did other research around the net.
Might help to enlist some campaign workers with acess across various states/counties, if possible.
We need to go for the popular vote this time. That means everyone—even those of you in districts sure to win for Republicans—needs to vote! Everyone, everywhere! Vote!
Democrat voters are motivated by much more hatred this time. They’ll bring a huge vote. Tell all of your Republican neighbors and potential swing voters to vote! Our freedoms depend on it this time!
I certainly don’t feel better after reading that. A bird in the hand .... well you know. They’ll have more in hand to start.
The Democrats that are passed out drunk or high on election day will have already counted.
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