I haven’t done the math but have this thought come to mind. You are comparing the 300k 2016 deficit Rs overcame on ED and comparing it to 2020. If a higher percentage of voters for both parties have voted before election day, do Rs have enough voters in reserve to overcome the same deficit? If more Rs have already voted, the ED break to overcome the same deficit would have to be significantly higher. Just a concern.
As long as the D turnout stays low, R’s will have enough voters.
The big question is if Democrat turnout will continue imploding for IPEV + Election Day.