You don’t address some allegedly negative trends for Trump. He is said to have lost some white senior voters because of Coronavirus. There is allegedly declining support among white suburban women. Are those real? They can potentially cancel out the positive factors.
There may be some, and they are minimal.
You think suburban women want a guy who says he will defund cops? He has walked that back, but it’s out there.
No, I think these will be utterly swamped with black, Hispanic numbers, new D-R flips, and Trump’s base.
Use the LS test:
1) how many 2016 Trump voters do you know who won’t vote for him in 2020? (Me? 0-—and I talk to crowds that number in the thousands over four years. Not one).
2) How many people have you met/talked to who voted for Gary Johnson, Cankles, or didn’t vote at all but now will vote Trump? Me? 3. Well, gee. If 60m Trump voters all know JUST ONE, this is over.