Signs That Trump Isn’t Going to Win on Nov. 3

Townhall.com ^ | October 11, 2020 | Kevin McCullough

[Kaslin]

It’s a foregone conclusion and must now be faced.

Republicans have worried. Democrats have gloated. Libertarians, Independents, and Reformers have all weighed in. Now it must be acknowledged President Donald J. Trump is just not capable of winning this Nov. 3.

Perhaps the Democrats have finally found the silver bullet. After the Russia Hoax, Impeachment Farce, Lockdown Lies, Evaporative Economic Policies, Debate Blowups, and CoVid Contraction—they’ve even floated the 25th Amendment—which I only thought really bitter and nasty Never Trumpers would ever embrace.

But none of it has worked. Not even Nancy Pelosi’s prayers for the President’s health could keep him in the hospital for more than three days. And here one week after he contracted it — no one’s even discussing him having it because he’s symptom free and feeling twenty years younger.

So no... Donald J. Trump just doesn’t have what it takes to just win on November 3.

Because he’s going to absolutely crush the election that day. A #Trumpslide if you will.

Now the “smart people” will tell you that’s not possible and that he lags Joe Biden in the polls by margins to big to over come. If you only look at the selective polls listed in the Real Clear Politics average one might come to that conclusion (Just like they did in 2016).

One thing they won’t tell you though is that the hesitancy to tell pollsters what they think is a real phenomenon. A little more than a month ago Bloomberg published a survey that demonstrated Republicans and Independents are more than twice as likely as Democrats to not reveal to pollsters their true thoughts.

So if the polls that seem to point to a Biden win are wrong what was I depending on when I published my prediction map (the first of a few leading up to Election Day).

To be exceedingly clear — I find no evidence of a Biden win outside of the media polls.

But here's a short list of considerations that give us a better understanding of the race.

Enthusiasm Gap

The candidates already know that the president is winning by a mile. President Trump can’t help but to continue to draw massive crowds (even while in the hospital.) Every weekend, in every state, in hundreds of cities bikers, truckers, boaters, horse and buggy people, and regular pedestrians are having larger and larger participation in various parades of support from Miami to Manhattan and from Beverly Hills to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile Biden has trouble getting more than a dozen to show up at a tour stop in Yuma. And we all know people who say “I didn’t vote for him then,” or “I wasn’t really sure about him in 2016,” who have converted to “I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now.”

Black Votes Matter

Is it significant that Candace Owens led a “Back the Blue” march through DC and to the White House yesterday consisting of thousands of African American voters? Is it important that President Trump received them? Does it seem to make an impact that President Trump oversaw the fastest job creation for Black Americans with the fastest growth in wages among the poorest Black Americans in the modern era? Evidently it does because he’s currently enjoying (what I perceive to be understated) support anywhere from 18 to 25 percent of Black Americans. When narrowed down to Black men he’s consistently in the low to mid-30s percentage wise. The modern era high for a GOP president is 11 percent. Democrat’s consistently need 90 to 95 percent support of Black voters to win. If Trump gets anything above 11 percent he wins big. If he takes 20 percent or more it starts to reshape states like Pennsylvania where he runs up the score in the west and enjoys enough Black support around Philadelphia so as to win the state convincingly. Carbon copy that for Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, etc.

Latino Support Sans Pandering

Biden also has challenges with Hispanic voters. The president has seen a broad based support with Latinos that similarly to Blacks defies modern era history. One veteran of elections going back multiple decades told me last week that the president may enjoy support as high as 45 to 50 percent of the Hispanic vote. A number that big just seems so unheard of for a Republican. It’s hard for me to grasp. But just realize this: if the president gets anything above 35 percent he will again shatter recent history and entire state compositions begin to shift.

Promises Kept

I’m also very bullish on an old fashioned idea, that if you keep a promise, you’ve earned a second-term. You do realize don’t you that Trump presents the opposite problems of most politicians? Usually a candidate makes a ton of promises and then either breaks them or does very little to fulfill them once in office. Clinton kept three over eight years, Bush kept two (outside of 9/11 related items), Obama a big fat one in his first-term. The president came to office and went to work on day one. He’s lifted more than 2,000 regulations on small businesses, got tax reform done, and started in on his list. By my count 127 promises later he’s still not finished.

It’s still the economy, stupid.

As insulting as it sounds it’s still the bottom line. People vote their pocket book. Voters know this instinctively. Biden has nothing to show for 47 years in DC. The president built the fastest growing economy the world had ever seen. In the past four months he’s produced the fastest job growth in history at just shy of 12 million jobs created, with more than half of those lost only months before due to the virus and ensuing lockdowns. It was precisely the tax reform and deregulation of businesses that allowed the rebound to occur so quickly. And just imagine how much more the recovery would be underway if governors and mayors who are keeping their cities and states locked down for political reasons would allow them to actually open up.

Oh the pundits, Never Trumpers, and Democrats will explain away Biden’s every foible. When he says the voters “don’t deserve to know” his view on a 150-year precedent breaking idea of randomly packing the Supreme Court, they will give him a pass. When the Biden-Harris bus rolls in and six people sit in a gym in big circles drawn on the floor, the media will ignore the contrast of 40,000 supporters on a rainy tarmac in Minnesota.

But this election won’t be decided by the pundits, Never Trumpers, and swamp monsters.

The American people are the only poll that matters.

On November 3rd, President Trump won’t just win, he will break records, shift turn out patterns, and crush his way to the biggest re-election victory since Ronald Reagan.

[Atlantan]

In 2016 I worked in an office with majority black women. There was very little talk about the election, almost as if it wasn’t happening. I remember how excited they were to vote for Obama.

[Reily]

It got you to read the article !
So it was a great headline, it did what was supposed to do.

[Ann Archy]

FEELS UP/HEELS UP!!!! LOLOLOL!!! Omg..FABULOUS !

[Navy Patriot]

Read it, think the poll are similar to 2016, maybe a little more secretive respondents.

Exit polls may differ due to different election day poll traffic and time of traffic.

I think Trump will win with the voters and even more so with the Electoral College, but Stalin may count the vote.

Have to wait and see.

[Vendome]

Dumb headline but, the content was spot on

[euram]

Voters aren’t going to put a guy in the White House who is too afraid of his own shadow that he has to spend most of his time hiding in his basement. There really is no “Biden Campaign” the only semblance of a campaign is the one being run on his behalf by the media.

[Bringbackthedraft]

Black men at 20%. ........ Those are the educated ones in business suits. The Hood types don’t know who to vote for, or why. Give them a ballot and a $10 bill and they will vote for Biden. I’m sure they’ve already been contacted by the Democrats. When Hillary ran for senator in NYS, they were in the mentally infirm homes filling out the ballots for the patients, and saying everyone has the right to vote. Of course they told the patients which boxes to mark and where to sign.

[Tennessee Conservative]

I did but I didn’t want to. Glad I did.

[Aria]

Oregon is a battleground state? That’s a surprise to me.

Portland has 2 leading candidates for mayor:

1. Current pro-antifa mayor
2. Antifa challenger who last I knew is 11 pts ahead.

I think this place is at the point they’d elect Stalin if he were on the ballot.

[Ron H.]

Analysis spot on.

[Tom in SFCA]

Let’s wait and see who actually reads this....

I've been commenting here based solely on headlines for twenty years.

I'm not changing now.

[AlanGreenSpam]

It’s interesting that people focus so much on “the black vote” as if that’s as important as the Latino vote. Blacks are just 13% of the population while Latinos are at least 18% of the population.

Not only will Trump get a larger percentage of black votes in 2020 than 2016, but he’ll get a larger percentage of Latino votes.

In 2016, MSM had effectively branded Trump as an anti-Latino build-the-wall racist. In 2020, the Latinos get it about Trump. I’ve talked to many Latinos who support building a wall built because they don’t want cheap labor competition for their jobs.

Trump should address the Latinos on this very subject that BUILDING A WALL PROTECTS HISPANIC AMERICAN JOBS BIGTIME!

[Agamemnon]

Trump's lawyers intend to check/compare every signature on the mail-ins. Very time consuming. If it can't get done and certify before EC votes ~ Dec 13, the state risks not being counted in the EC tally.

If they can't complete vote signature comparison, they may have to forego unverifiable mail-ins and be forced to go with just the in-persons and sig-certified absentees only just to get into the EC count at all.

If challenge goes all the way uo the USSC and Amy Coney Barrett is seated, we might see mail-ins discounted simply on the basis of 14th Amendment equal protection of voters rights grounds.

If (D)'sexperience a rout, they will only have themselves to blame, and the long knives will be out for those tacticians responsible for the failed strategy.

FReegards!

[StAnDeliver]

Kevin did a good job here, he probably could have drove the point home by noting no incumbent President has been turned out since Poppy. That's a hell of a streak, and speaks to America's craven need for consistency -- even when it was the White Hut.

I also think he should have tied into it the meta argument that the #MSM were depraved in the way they treated the Office of President during #Shrub, so that when they flipped and elevated the Office for Bobo, it benefited Trump as the far more 'Presidential' candidate.

Also Biden is being played by Jo O'Malley-Dillon, who was Bebo's gun-grabbing mistress and tanked his campaign before accepting Turkey Neck's invitation to do the same shit to Mr. Hospice, simply to accept the challenge of taking a walking corpse, a mummy, a guy who would turn 80 before his first mid-term, and put him over on the American people.

I don't think many people here understand that Biden's campaign looks at their own candidate as a joke -- the leader of the Free World cannot be senile no matter how ruthless the current occupant is -- but the grift of book deals (the corollary allure of the talking circuit is almost as lifeless as the candidate) drives them.

[9YearLurker]

Too many of these articles don’t address the massive planned fraud.

[xenia]

The 800 pound sewer rat in the middle of the room is mail in voter fraud”
__________________________

Without the fraud I would concur that Trump would probably win. But I agree with you, that fraud is a game changer. We really have no idea all that is going on with that.

Years back we could safely put our soc sec numbers on our checks. Times have changed and the culture has changed. Truth has lost its importance. I’m a poll worker this year. A utility bill with name and address is good enough ID. There is no way cheating can happen with that.... ??

[Prolixus]

Is there anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 and who is voting in 2020 but is not voting for Trump again?

Now is there anybody who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 who is going to vote for him in 2020?

Now 2018 didn't go so well but, the Russian Collusion conspiracy theory still had legs then. It doesn't now.

Of course, there's the pandemic which started just as the impeachment failed. Can the Democrats politicize the pandemic enough to harm Trump (and, of course, the country) or will voters notice how convenient it was for the Democrats that this pandemic suddenly appeared?

[polymuser]

I jumped my conclusion, then I read it. Uff da!

Another big factor to me — Moms for law and order. Mothers’ core programming going wayyyyy back is to protect their babies (not counting the selfish aborters).

I suspect many soccer moms (that voted from their false white guilt for Barack) are going to vote for law and order; only Trump offers it. They’ll likely not admit it out loud, though, or to pollsters.

[Jonny7797]

Shaping up to be similar to 2016, except Biden will get a few more votes cause he’s a man, but will lose more votes because he’s a senile idiot.

Overall, I agree. Trump in a landslide, but we can let off the gas and we have to be ready for the legal battle and anarchy that will take place after the election.

Trump 2020.

[moovova]

The old Texas two-step.