The early returns in these key swing states are all looking great for Trump, so good that President Trump should declare victory and demand that Biden concede.
There is a hidden assumption in the analysis, and that is that Democratic (remaining) in-person voting on election day in 2020 will be similar to their in-person voting in 2016.
I believe that in a normal year that would be a reasonable assumption, but this is not a normal year.
This is the year of the coronavirus, a disease that has the amazing ability to terrify Democrats but not concern Republicans that much.
That is why I am predicting the remaining Democratic vote will substantially under-perform what we would normally expect because the Democrats will not want to expose themselves to coronavirus from fellow voters and poll-workers.
Imho that should assure that the President wins _all_ the “swing states” and a few others as well.
We will know soon enough.
The communists will have to figure out how many fake ballots to submit for the final count.
So you read about every state commented on.
PA looks very difficult. Very.
D turnout in NC was huge.
NV isn’t likely to swing our way.
I think Trump will win.
I think people thinking of a blowout are the ones who do not follow or read what’s going on and just blab that out.
We are predicting who is going to vote and in what numbers on election day before it happens.
There are no guarantees.
I am optimistic that Trump will win.
I do not believe it will be that many EVs.
That’s fine with me.
They are NOT all looking good. PA looks like a total disaster right now.
And the author assumes in some cases that more republican result votes is good, then assumes the opposite in other states, that higher dem performance means they’ve “used up”all their votes.
Then he takes a state like NC, where he’s amazed how far ahead democrats are, but he assumes Republicans are coming out in huge numbers and will win anyway.
He says we ain’t winning Minnesota.
And the conclusion is Trump can win IF he wins a couple of states this analysis doesn’t show him winning at the moment.
Yes there was good news holding some important States, but then we’re not holding others that we need.