Posted on 04/14/2022 7:06:50 AM PDT by blam
Americans’ credit cards are taking a beating – as was evident in the plunge in the savings rate and the surge in revolving consumer credit – to enable them to keep the dream alive and spend beyond their means and that over-reach enabled them to increase retail sales spending by 0.5% MoM – as expected in March. Notably, the rise in retail sales year-over-year is decelerating dramatically (up only 6.9% YoY – the lowest since Feb 2021)…
Source: Bloomberg
The relative weakness was driven by a huge drop in non-store retailer sales (online) MoM leaving sales up just 1.8% YoY.
However, before everyone celebrates this rise in retail sales, we note that the ‘Control Group’ – which filters to the GDP calculation – unexpectedly dropped 0.1% MoM (vs a 0.1% MoM rise expected).
Both goods and services sales growth slowed dramatically in March…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal – i.e. not adjusted for inflation. While the two data series are not ‘fungible’ per se – i.e. not weighted the same by product – we can get some idea of ‘real’ retail sales by reducing the headline data by CPI… It was negative for the second straight month…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, the March advance was led by a 8.9% jump in spending for gasoline. Excluding receipts at gas stations, sales fell 0.3% last month.
Source: Bloomberg
Of course, don’t forget that real wages growth has been negative for 13 straight months.
(We are so screwed.)
Sorry; but I just can’t think of anything else to buy. Already got my wife a diamond ring.
Amazon’s “fuel surcharge” isn’t going to help next month’s online sales either.
Durable goods is down also, and with consumer confidence I do not know how it could get worse.
When the communists had their reign in the former East-block, they would report year after year how their output and productivity were increasing, how they were producing more per area of land than in the West... Yet people were starving and had little. They did have a lot of paper money which could buy you nothing because the shelves were empty.
I don’t know about spending slowing.
I spent over $300 on groceries yesterday.
I’m definitely buying less.
20 cans of beans were $10 plus tax.
Now, 20 cans of beans are $15.60 plus tax.
It all changed in less than one week + about 2 months ago.
Only a 56 percent increase. 😳
Time to raise the Minimum Wage! *SMIRK*
Posted in another forum. Costco is placing limits on things, also including gasoline, sugar and dog food.
I just bought a 2021 Ford F150 from a private party versus a dealer. Saved $15,000.00! I REFUSE to help reverse the 'Bidenflation' numbers other than basic foodstuffs which are not taxed...for now, anyway! Ugh! I probably just gave them another 'great' idea! :(
The tortilla chips that I buy every week for $1.26 per bay were $1.74 ($0.48) a bag yesterday.
Higher food prices, higher gas prices and war.
Good thing President Trump’s out of office!
🙄
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