More On Fed’s Bullard’s “Consumers Healthy” Remark (Consumer Sentiment At Lowest Level Since 1977 While Unemployment Rate At Only 3.6%)

Confounded Interest ^ | 06/27/2022 | Anthony B. Sanders

[Browns Ultra Fan]

St. Louis Fed President Bullard made a remark the other day that consumers are healthy so a recession is unlikely.

Consumers are healthy? It is true that the US U-3 uemployment rate is low (3.6% versus 14.70% in April 2020 thanks to government shutdowns over Covid). But even though unemployment is low, consumer sentiment is at its lowest point since 1977.

Generally, consumer sentiment is high when unemployment is low, but not this time around. Currently, inflation is at the highest level since March 1980 even though consumer sentiment bottomed-out in April 1980.

Here is my chart showing that REAL average hourly earnings growth YoY is negative and getting worse, hardly a sign of “healthy consumers.”

Of course, rising gasoline and diesel prices have risen dramatically since 2021, but are declining slightly thanks to the global economic slowdown (read “lower demand”).

And a M2 Money Stock (green line) declined, US rents (blue line) declined as well.

We are truly living in Birdland. As in bird-brain land.

[Browns Ultra Fan]

We have bird-brains in DC (The Fed + Pelosi/Schumer/AOC/Biden).

[nagant]

HeellOoooo? People don’t LIKE being out of work with no purpose to their lives.

Yes, especially if you pay them with other people’s money.

[Soul of the South]

Government claims a 3.6% unemployment rate. Let’s look at the numbers for May 2022:

Civilian non institutional population 263.7 million
Civilian labor force 164.4 million
% of population participating in labor force 62.3%

Employed 158.4 million
Unemployed 5.95 million

Not in the labor force 99.3 million

The true number of unemployed is the 99.3 million not in the labor force plus the 5.95 million recorded as unemployed or 105.25 million. This represents 40% of the civilian population of working age = non working spouses, welfare recipients, early retirees, non working homeless, millennials living in their parent’s basement, , etc.

[servantoftheservant]

Thank you so much for breaking that down!

Is there a place we can get the actual population number for Employed, Unemployed, and Not In The Labor Force regularly?

[Soul of the South]

“Is there a place we can get the actual population number for Employed, Unemployed, and Not In The Labor Force regularly?”

US Govt Bureau of Labor Statistics website

— Employment: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

— Consumer price index: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[BookmanTheJanitor]