Putin's War. Week 26: A Bizarre Assassination in Moscow, a Nuclear Power Plant Held Hostage, and Ukraine Launches (Maybe) Its First Offensive

Red ^ | 08/29/2022 | streiff

[SeekAndFind]

Here we are, 26.5 weeks into Vladimir Putin’s 3-day cakewalk to Kiev. I haven’t done this in a while (last update Putin’s War. Week 21. New Weapons Change the Battlefield in Ukraine’s Favor but Are They Stronger Than European Cowardice and Stupidity?) because not a lot has been happening if you aren’t in a trench in Donbas hoping to make it through an artillery barrage.

The big news today is what might turn out to be a Ukrainian offensive developing in Kherson Oblast. We’ll get to that after the preliminaries.

Politico-Strategic Level

A lot of action has taken place at this level, but it is often better to look at it as a whole to get an idea of what is happening.

Bizarre assassination.

On Saturday night, August 20, a bomb demolished a car belonging to Aleksandr Dugin. Most westerners have never heard of Dugin. Most Russians, either. But Dugin was a hyper-nationalist who told people that he had the ear of Vladimir Putin and took credit as the intellectual driving force behind the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In the wreckage on a Moscow street, police found the remains not of Alexandr Dugin but of his daughter, Darya. Ms. Dugin had followed in her father’s footsteps and was a very active propagandist for the war as well as running a disinformation site.

Lots of craziness ensued. Within minutes the FSB reported that the perpetrators were Ukrainian special forces operators who’d already fled to Estonia. The FSB further claimed they had rented an apartment in the same building with Darya a month ago and followed her around Moscow in an entirely discreet Mini Cooper. They were alleged to have been women who served in the Azov battalion that Russia has labeled a “terrorist” group. This being Russia, you feel like you’re staggering around a fun house. The ID the FSB produced that was left behind by the assassin was debunked as a photoshop effort. See the whole thread below.

2/5 Nothing beats a killer shadow effect. No limits to what you can achieve with some gaussian blur. pic.twitter.com/5nPPdvvH6n

— Lauri Linnamäe (@IssandJumal) August 22, 2022

The eulogies seemed off-key.

Truly unbelievable speech from Dugin at the funeral of his own daughter Daria, whom he is elevating as a martyr for the cause of Russia’s victory in Ukraine. Only victory can justify the price she paid, he says: “She died in the name of victory.” pic.twitter.com/FBIJQ1zLEu

— Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) August 23, 2022

"One country. One president. One victory!" – Russian State Duma deputy Leonid Slutsky said at the Daria Dugina's funeral.

This is almost a literal translation of the German Nazis slogan «Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer». So who needs denazification: Ukraine or maybe Russia? pic.twitter.com/HsZhsmeBtU

— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) August 23, 2022

The pièce de résistance Darya’s funeral.

I must say I’m now totally confused. Left: this is how Daria Dugina’s car looks like after the explosion and fire; right: this is how Daria Dugina looks in a coffin after she was reportedly killed in that car. I have a feeling that something doesn’t really “compute”. pic.twitter.com/t3YJ2ecYXg

— Anton Shekhovtsov (@A_SHEKH0VTS0V) August 23, 2022

There was a lot of mewling from the usual suspects that this was an “escalation” and it would provoke Russia into new and unspecified retaliation (when you’re firing cruise missiles into random apartment blocks, it is hard to find something to take that to eleven). The question no one could ever answer was why anyone would go to the trouble to bomb the daughter of a third-tier grifter in Moscow. If Ukraine sent a hit squad, they could have done at least as well as an untrained but angry babushka.

🚨VIDEO: Deputy Chief of General Staff of Russian Armed Forces, Yevhen Secretaryov, car set on fire in Moscowpic.twitter.com/8CNWsrEJ8o

— Breaking News (@NewsJunkieBreak) August 27, 2022

In #Moscow, the car of a propagandist responsible for military censorship was blown up. The #ruXXians claim that 65-year-old Olena Belova set fire to the car of the Deputy Chief of the Directorate of the General Staff of #ruZZia Yevgeny Skretaryov. pic.twitter.com/5wEKnkua24

— ꑭ Natalia ꑭ (@NatalieSmal) August 28, 2022

Predictably, the story has vanished. Smart money says this has more to do with a business dispute or obscure power struggle than with Ukraine.

Read RedState coverage of the event: Daria Dugina Killing Sparks New Worries About Russia, Escalation of Ukraine War and Russia Points Finger at Ukraine for Darya Dugina Assassination; US State Department Issues Travel Alert.

EU fights over Russian tourist ban.

Much of the EU is agitating for a ban on tourist visas for Russians. The primary voices against it are France and Germany. The reasoning is that the war in Ukraine is not just Putin’s war; it is a war waged by all Russians. So long as that war is ongoing, Russians should not be allowed to travel or reside in the EU. Some countries have unilaterally imposed a travel ban on Russians, but the EU, as a whole, probably will not. The EU will stop giving Russians preferential status when applying for visas; this will reduce the number of Russian tourists and increase the wait times for those who get visas.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

A high-level game of chicken is being played at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNP). The ZNP is occupied by Russia, which attempted to unplug the plant from Ukraine’s grid and send the power to Crimea. This resulted in power pylons being knocked down by Ukrainian partisans and ZNP being taken entirely off the grid for a while, potentially leading to a Fukushima-like disaster. The IAEA asked to take control of the plant, and Russia refused. Now it seems like the IAEA may be on the scene.

👷 @RafaelMGrossi and a team of experts & inspectors have set off for the IAEA Support & Assistance Mission to #Zaporizhzhya (ISAMZ), to help ensure nuclear safety and security at #Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya NPP and undertake vital safeguards activities.
👉 https://t.co/IrcPxHuukI pic.twitter.com/0IzcLDYsxO

— IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency (@iaeaorg) August 29, 2022

Money, money, money.

The Biden White House has approved an additional tranche of $3 billion in defense and economic aid. This brings the total assistance to Ukraine to $13.5 billion since the Russian invasion.

New weapons in action.

One of the more interesting new weapons in the Ukraine aid package is the Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment or VAMPIRE. It uses the 2.75-inch (70mm) Hydra rocket usually found on the AH-64 Apache and AH-1(insert your variant here) Cobra. The system can be used on virtually any utility truck and can carry out precision engagements of ground targets, drones, and rotary-wing and fixed-wing aircraft. Though I think the latter capability is something I’d rather not try out. This system allows anti-drone coverage of Ukrainian units and critical assets. In this war, that is a big thing.

As part of the new military assistance package, Ukraine will receive VAMPIRE UAV countermeasure systems from L3Harris.

Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment (VAMPIRE) is a portable complex that can be installed on almost any vehicle with a cargo compartment. pic.twitter.com/ex8x08knBU

— The Rage X (@theragex) August 28, 2022

The vendor produces an excellent video for the system.

Last week, something interesting turned up on Russian-oriented social media sites. Pictures emerged showing the wreckage of an AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile, or HARM.

There are photos of the remnants of an AGM-88 HARM missile after the use by Ukraine on Russian troops. Based on the release date – 1991, it is an AGM-88B Block III missile.



https://t.co/amUYUNhQJ5#HARM #AntiRadiationMissile #UkraineRussiaWar #UkrainianArmy #RussianUkrainianWar pic.twitter.com/sB3mdMbhLy

— Sergey from Kyiv (@SergeyFromKyiv) August 26, 2022

The HARM is designed to take out air defense radars. It normally locks onto hostile air defense systems when “painted” by radar. But it isn’t just any anti-radiation missile. It has a lock-on-jam function that homes in on electronic warfare jammers. If you think switching off your radar will save you, you’re wrong. If HARM loses signal, it has a GPS and inertial guidance system onboard that lock in the location of the targeted radar emitter.

This shocked a lot of folks on both sides, as no one had any idea that US and Ukrainian technicians had worked together to adapt the AGM-88 to, we think, MiG-29 fighters. What is known is that the introduction of the HARM has shut down the ability of the Russian S-300 system and has opened the skies to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Operational Level.

Here are a couple of videos that show how the war has progressed. The first one you’ve seen before, it covers the limits of Russian occupation for the first 90 days of fighting, from February 24 to about May 25.

This next map shows the lines for the first six months of the war.

The takeaway should be that the front lines have stabilized and any changes in territory possessed are relatively minor.

Crimea

A new theater was opened against Russian forces in Crimea. Read: Airbase in Russian-Occupied Crimea Hit by Devastating Ukrainian Attack. There is no consensus on how the attack was carried out. I discount a SOF attack because it just doesn’t seem plausible. There are claims that ATACMS, a short-range ballistic missile fired from the HIMARS and MLRS platforms, was used, but I’m not convinced ATACMS is in Ukraine.

Drone attacks have been carried out on targets in Sevastopol. This implies that Ukrainian SOF operate reasonably freely in Crimea.

HQ of Russian Black Sea Fleet in occupied Sevastopol was targeted with suspected drone. 5 wounded, all celebrations of the Navy day cancelled in the city https://t.co/GlBMFbQJUO pic.twitter.com/qOnP9f7hZs

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) July 31, 2022

🔥Video of a kamikaze drone attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in the temporarily occupied Sevastopol, which was the day before yesterday.

The drone calmly flew to the target despite the invaders' attempts to shoot it down. pic.twitter.com/JsMcp622Sx

— 🇺🇦War in Ukraine🇺🇦 (@Rinegati) August 22, 2022

Kharkiv and Donbas

Just like my last update, the frontlines in these two areas are mostly unchanged. The Russians have made some small gains in Donbas, but they are measured in the hundreds of yards.

Kherson

For the last six weeks, Ukrainian artillery has battered Russian C3I and logistics nodes. I’m not going to bore you with more video of exploding ammo dumps; check out my last update.

To understand what is going on, let’s look at the theater of operations.

Credit: Critical Threats

The critical terrain is the Dnipro (Dneiper) River. Most of the battle area for the Russians is north of the Dnipro. All Russian troops north of the Dnipro depend on supplies and reinforcements that must come from either Crimea (off the map to the south) or Donbas (off the map to the east). There are only four bridges available. The massive Antonivsky Bridge, the bridge attached to the hydroelectric dam at Nova Kakhovka, and the railway bridge at Prydniprovs’ke cross the Dnipro. In addition, a bridge crosses the Inhulets River at Dar’yivka.

 

Those bridges are impassible, and all traffic across the Dnipro is by ferry. A pontoon bridge over a kilometer in length is under construction at the site of the Antonivsky Bridge. Bottom line, every Russian unit north of the river is supplied via ferry. Multiple reports say that the Russian headquarters in Kherson has moved south of the Dnipro. That makes a lot of tactical sense, but it is a bad look under these circumstances.

Ukraine has been telegraphing, or head-faking, an offensive in this area for two months. The Russians have responded by pulling units out of Donbas and moving them to defensive positions north of the Dnipro.

Adding to the sense of unease, Ukrainian partisans or special forces have been assassinating collaborators.

pic.twitter.com/5avVlnrJhR

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 26, 2022

It’s reported that – In temporarily occupied Berdyansk, an assassination attempt was made on a collaborator: Alexander Kolesnikov, “deputy head of the traffic police” of the city, was injured. He was taken to the city clinical hospital with shrapnel wounds.


#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/R1RK1Wvdj7

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 26, 2022

Reports of Alexei Kovalev's death come just months after he survived a separate assassination attempt.


https://t.co/JdIsQy08t3

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) August 29, 2022

Today, Ukraine launched ground assaults after an intense overnight artillery barrage and picked up some quick gains of over six miles in places.

This may or may not be meaningful. At this stage, it is impossible to tell if this is a “shaping operation” intended to set the stage for an offensive; if it is an opportunistic limited offensive to inflict casualties and introduce new units to combat; if it is to draw Russian attention while the real blow lands in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Why I think there is a very good chance that this results in tangible gains for Ukraine is that the battlefield is geographically isolated. Supply and reinforcements will be difficult to move. Pontoon bridges will never bear the traffic of the downed bridges and are subject to attack as well. The demolition of Russian ammo dumps in the theater means that Russian artillery will no longer be able to provide the massed fire support it provided in Donbas.

That said, we have yet to witness Ukrainian ability to coordinate artillery with armor and infantry. I assume many of the units going into battle are fresh from the training ground and being blooded for the first time. We don’t know how they will perform. What develops in the next month will give us a much better idea of the course of this war.

 

[Widget Jr]

Ping.

You may find the part about Dugin's death of interest.

[Berlin_Freeper]

Putin's War. Week 26...

WW2 Germany defeated France in 6 weeks.

[BenLurkin]

Nazi fanatics make difficult opponents.

[Cathi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfKnwUjakyA

Scott Ritter Extra Ep. 8: Ask the Inspector

[Berlin_Freeper]

Brave people defending their Country and Freedom make difficult opponents.

Fixed it for you, Putin Stooge.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

Anoher Victory for Ukraine! Be ready for a Victory a dat from now on! The war is over and Russia has LOST. The hero Troops will be in Crimea on two weeks, the war over in six. I predict Putin will be dead by Christmas and a new government in place in the Duma. Peace is coming soon. Just a few more Billion dollars and more wonder weapons! Stop sending old junk from Soviet Times! Send us some Raptors — America’s best and trainers to teach Ukraine how to used them! A no fly zone too! This war should be the most important thing on America’s mind.

[familyop]

Russia to Hold Military Drills With China, Others
The Associated Press by way of NTD
By Vladimir Isachenkov
Aug 29, 2022
"The drills...will engage troops from several ex-Soviet nations, China, India, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, and Syria...The drills reflect increasing defense ties between Moscow and Beijing, which have grown stronger since Russia sent its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24. The Chinese communist regime has pointedly refused to criticize Russia’s action, blaming the United States and NATO for provoking Moscow, and has blasted punishing sanctions imposed on Moscow."

[Widget Jr]

I'm curious. How does Ritter propose to have meaningful dialogue with Russian citizens? Under Russian law, criticizing the special operation and calling it and invasion is a crime. When Russia offered safe passage to allow ships carrying grain to leave Ukraine, in under a day they attacked the port. Russian forces used the same trick in Syria. Call for a cease fire, regroup, then break it first when there is any advantage.

It is not possible to have meaningful dialogue, when one side has demonstrated for years they will exploit it at every turn and can not be trusted to keep any word given.

[familyop]

Looks like The Associated Press obtained the information from the Russian Defence Ministry Press Service according to this article.

Russia to hold war games with China amid tensions over Ukraine invasion
https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/29/russia-to-hold-war-games-with-china-amid-tensions-over-ukraine-invasion

[familyop]

Mistakenly posted to another thread with an erroneous link. Sorry about that.

Ukrainian troops liberated 4 villages in Kherson Oblast from Russian occupation
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/30/ukrainian-troops-liberated-4-villages-in-kherson-oblast-from-russian-occupation/

Ukraine troops ‘break through Russian lines’ in long-awaited counter-offensive in Kherson
https://inews.co.uk/news/ukraine-troops-break-through-russian-lines-counter-offensive-kherson-1822416?ITO=newsnow
Ukraine claims it can take back the crucial Kherson region but Washington sources caution that it is not yet clear whether Kyiv has massed sufficient forces for a sustained all-out assault to push Kremlin forces back into Crimea
inews.co.uk
By Cahal Milmo
August 29, 2022

[familyop]

You might also find this interesting.

Russian Efforts to Raise Numbers of Troops 'Unlikely to Succeed,' U.S. Official Says
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3143381/russian-efforts-to-raise-numbers-of-troops-unlikely-to-succeed-us-official-says/
United States Department of Defense
AUG. 29, 2022
BY JIM GARAMONE, DOD NEWS

Russia is desperately trying to fill its ranks depleted by its poor showing in its unprovoked war on Ukraine, a senior defense official said speaking on background today. Russia is seeking to increase the size of its military by 137,000 to 1.15 million. U.S. officials have said that Russia has lost between 60,000 and 80,000 troops in its misguided war on Ukraine.

[Image] Smoke fills the area in front of a military tank that recently fired its artillery.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the increase be in place effective in January 2023.

"This effort is unlikely to succeed, as Russia has historically not met personnel and strength targets," the official said. "In fact, if you look at the Russian armed forces, prior to the invasion, they may have already been 150,000 personnel short of their million personnel goal."

Prior to the invasion, roughly a quarter of the Russian force were conscripts and the remainder were professional soldiers. Moscow has been trying to use largely professional soldiers as opposed to conscripts in the Ukraine conflict, the official said. Still, there have been news reports of conscripts — hastily equipped, meagerly supplied and badly trained — being placed on the front lines in Ukraine.

Russian leaders have already begun trying to expand recruitment efforts to staff at least one volunteer battalion per federal district, and to raise a new army corps, the senior defense official said. "They've done this in part by eliminating the upper age limits for new recruits and also by recruiting prisoners," she said. "Many of these new recruits have been observed as older, unfit and ill-trained."

All this suggests to Pentagon officials that "any additional personnel that Russia actually can muster by the end of the year, in fact, may not increase overall Russian combat power," the official said.

[Image] A soldier climbs into and closes the hatch on an armored military vehicle.

Ukrainian government officials have said they have launched an offensive in and around Kherson to retake the strategic city in the south, and a senior U.S. military official, also speaking on background, said there has been an increase in kinetic activity in and around the city. The official did not want to characterize the actions there as a counter offensive just yet. He said there would be more clarity in the next 24 to 36 hours.

The senior military official noted that Ukrainian forces have been moving into the region for some time. The ratio between Ukrainian and Russian forces "are in much better number in terms of equality or parity in the south than they were initially up along the eastern portion of the battlespace. And again, without knowing all the particulars of what the Ukrainians are doing, … they are students of military doctrine. They understand that conducting an attack takes a greater number of forces than if you were on the defense. So, I think they probably have worked to adjust their numbers."

Morale is an aspect of combat and news reports on Russian morale in the south indicate that it was already poor when the unprovoked war started. "Now imagine you're a Russian soldier … a couple of months into it, and you've been getting hit pretty hard by [Ukrainian] artillery and HIMARS," he said.

Add other capabilities, including Ukrainian air attacks which have become "more and more efficient and effective," the senior military official said. This has to have an effect on morale and Ukrainian military officials have seen that "and are working to take advantage of it," he said.

[familyop]

Ukraine isn’t saying much to the general public, yet, about the new offensive in progress in the Kherson Oblast. Here is a brief history and a general statement at the end about what’s going on, though.

The Kherson operation: all you need to know about it
https://youtu.be/4Fzj3edn_T4

[familyop]

Ukrainians launch counteroffensive to retake the country’s South | World News – TVP World
(Polish TV in English)
https://youtu.be/SXrcdZnq0ns

[familyop]

Russia has faced ‘failures’ with Iranian-made drones - US official
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-715880

[Berlin_Freeper]

Forward the Putin Stooge - posting like a child because he has no good Russian invasion news.

[popdonnelly]

Is that how you justify Putin invading another country?

[MalPearce]

Kirill Stremousov Moscow’s man in Kherson, is safely tweeting about the success of the mission in Kherson...

From Russia.

https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1564535302907125761?t=i0o7xL_Ohm1Jx2OO90edeA&s=19

Maybe he’s just having a holiday.

[Timber Rattler]

THIS Scott Ritter?

Ex-UN inspector gets prison in Pa. sex case

Former United Nations weapons inspector convicted in an online sex sting has been sentenced to up to 5 1/2 years behind bars.

Scott Ritter, 50, of Delmar, N.Y., exchanged explicit messages with a detective posing as a 15-year-old girl, then performed a sex act on himself in front of a webcam.

He testified in his own defense that he believed the person he met in a Yahoo chat room in 2009 was an adult acting out her own fantasy.

But a northeastern Pennsylvania jury convicted Ritter in April. On Wednesday, a Monroe County judge sentenced him to 18 months to 66 months in state prison.

Ritter was taken into custody immediately.

[Flick Lives]

I’m curious. How does Ritter propose to have meaningful dialogue with Russian citizens? Under Russian law, criticizing the special operation and calling it and invasion is a crime.

—

How does one have a meaningful dialog in the U.S. where Big Tech platforms prevent posting of any info contrary to the Biden regime’s narrative?