Replies

Rob Lee
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567395435685216256

“According to the Russian Starshe Eddy channel, not only is Balakliya encircled but Ukrainian forces appear to have taken Volokhiv Yar over night. They think Ukraine will try to push towards Kupyansk.”

“Another Russian Telegram channel says that Ukraine increased the intensity of missiles strikes, particularly HIMARS, over the past week on Izyum, Kupyansk, and other areas. They say Ukraine has been preparing for the offensive for at least a month. 2/”

“Another Russian channel says “don’t expect good news today” before saying Russian units there are below 50% manning levels while the staff are bloated. Two Rosgvardia detachments have been fighting for more than a day encircled near Volokhiv Yar. 3/”

“Vladlen Tatarsky says he trusts the info from the Starshe Eddy and Zapiski Veteran channels who are both involved in the fighting in the Kharkiv-Izyum direction. He says the two encircled Rosgvardia units are SOBR from Samara and Bashkiria. 4/”

“Another Ru account says they are only fighting at partial strength and that the Russian state must be fully mobilized. They question why capabilities are being shown at Vostok 2022 when Russian soldiers lack artillery and aviation. “We have a long and difficult fight ahead of us””

“Interestingly, a number of Russian Telegram channels have been talking about a Ukrainian buildup in Kharkiv over the past month, but it appears Ukraine may still have achieved surprise today.”

“Tatarsky tells Rosgvardia troops to learn how to call for fire before deploying and how to use AGS grenade launchers, ATGM, and SPG-9. A reminder that they aren’t trained for conventional war.”

“Another Russian Channel questions why battalion and company commanders didn’t see the offensive coming and prepare and that they shouldn’t have made a public warning if higher ignored them. They suggest senior officers are incompetent and ignored Intel.”

“Girkin says Balakliya was defended by LDPR mobilised and Rosgvardia who didn’t know how to use available heavy weapons; Ukrainians entered swiftly on armour rendering Rus. artillery ineffective; beat the f*ck out of the garrison.”

“Already a strong theme from the Russian Telegram accounts that this is a Russian military leadership failure that is putting soldiers on the front lines at greater risk than they should be.”

“They’re saying the Ukrainian objective is Kupyansk to cut off Izyum. They also say that, as Ukraine advances, missile strikes on Izyum continue and sabotage/partisan activity has increased in Russian-occupied Kharkiv Oblast.”

“Starshe Eddy is criticizing people saying Ukraine lacks reserves in the Balakliya-Izyum area. He’s angry with generals and senior officers but praises juniors soldiers and officers doing the fighting. 15/”

“The account is saying Russia is deploying reserves to Shevchenkove to stop the advance. They say Ukrainian forces may have bypassed Volokhiv Yar and Semenivka in order to keep advancing to Shevchenkove (which is how you rapidly exploit success).”

Almost all of RuZZia’s nat gas pipelines head west to Europe. One to China.

Oliver Alexander
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1567117173008601088
“Has Russia shot itself in the foot, again? This will be a long thread covering the probable Russian closing of gas to Europe and limited ability of Russia to reroute this to China with their current gas infrastructure 1/12.”

“Russia is blaming the current “oil leak” that has brought Nord Stream 1 to a complete halt on Western sanctions, with Dimitry Peskov saying, “There are no other reasons that would lead to problems with pumping.””

“Siemens who maintains the turbines stated, “Such leaks do not normally affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site. It is a routine procedure within the scope of maintenance work,” Here is an image of the leak in question”

“If Russia wants to move away from exporting the majority of its natural gas to Europe, it will need to completely rebuild its current natural gas infrastructure. This includes both pipelines and LNG terminals.”

“At this time Russia has no gas pipelines in place to send natural gas from its main gas fields of Urengoy and Yamburg to China. It is therefore not feasible for them to simply redirect flow to China.”

“Planning for the Power of Siberia pipeline, which Russia uses to transport gas to China from the smaller Chayanda gas field started in 2007, with construction starting in 2012. It was not completed until 2019. It took 12 years total, with 7 years of construction.”

“This pipeline is shorter than the pipelines that would be needed to redirect flow from Urengoy and Yamburg to China. It would take over a decade in perfect conditions to build this pipeline, with sanctions it will take much longer and may not even be possible.”

“As for Russia using LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) to export gas to locations outside of Europe, Russia has another major issue. Russia has two main LNG terminals Yamal LNG and Sakhalin LNG. Only Yamal LNG is connected to the Western fields.”

“Yamal LNG has an annual capacity of producing 16.5 million tons of LNG. This is the equivalent of 22.75 billion cubic meters of gas, or 41.36% the annual capacity of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.”

“Additionally Russia has two smaller LNG terminal projects in the West, Vysotsk LNG and Portovaya LNG. Vysotsk only produces 0.66 mtpa and Portovaya LNG is not yet operational and will produce 1.5 mtpa.”

“Yamal LNG is also not located in an optimal geographic position for export to Asia. Yamal LNG was built with the intention of using the Fluxys LNG terminal at Zeebrugge, Belgium as Russia’s main LNG port for the Asia-Pacific region when ice blocks Sabetta port.”

“In summation, the current Russian gas infrastructure is mainly developed with the goal of supplying gas to Europe and is in some cases dependent on Europe. Redirecting the flow of gas towards the East is a process that will take decades and cost hundreds of billions.”