Girkin is in a pickle. He is being mobilized to the front, with a $100,000 bounty on his head.
Posted on 10/16/2022 10:24:11 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1342
October 2022 – 135
September 2022 - 217
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 349
October 2022 – 34
September 2022 - 73
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
“”An intelligence assessment shared in recent days with Ukrainian and U.S. officials contends that Iran’s armaments industry is preparing a first shipment of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles, two well-known Iranian short-range ballistic missiles” to Russia.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581566937896980486
“Belgorod in Russia today, which is gradually turning into a frontline city in this war. Reports that the airport has been heavily damaged in strikes this morning.”
https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1581585013295890433
“Videos and photos all over Russian and Donetsk Z Telegram channels showing Donetsk city administration building at 98 Artema St. (not to be confused with the better known “DNR” admin building two blocks south) in the occupied city has been destroyed.”
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1581542353214787585
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for October 15, 2022
- Elon Musk placed temporarily on notorious Ukrainian kill list;
- US aid to Ukraine continues to dwindle;
- NATO air defense project spans years and unlikely to help Ukraine in short-term;
- Ukraine's offensives are increasingly depleted quickening arrival at inflection point when irreversible Russian advances begin;
Girkin is in a pickle. He is being mobilized to the front, with a $100,000 bounty on his head.
In total, Ukrainian losses amount to 322 airplanes and 161 helicopters, 2,226 unmanned aerial vehicles, 380 air defence missile systems, 5,753 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 869 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,473 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 6,560 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.
As of February, 2022, Ukraine had 215 aircraft total.
Yes, and Ukraine has not been receiving military hardware, tanks, etc. from outside sources either.... /s
“Polish “Eastern Territories” (Western Ukraine) can become the Ukrainian Autonomous Okrug – Polish expert Marek Galash in an interview with Dziennik Polityczny “When the war in Ukraine is over, many of its citizens will no longer want to return to their homeland,”
https://twitter.com/TobiAyodele/status/1581494203309121537
Russian Military Budget for 2021: $65.9 billion
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Oct 15, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named War in Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... )
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Noose Tightens Around Russian-Occupied Kherson <——
Ukrainian troops remain focused on cutting off the Russians’ only way out of Kherson as part of its southern offensive.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-noose-tightens-around-russian-occupied-kherson
Excerpt:
Russian troops are arriving in Belarus as part of Moscow’s regional group of forces in its client state. Reports from @MotolkoHelp suggest Russian forces arrived at three rail stations in north and west Belarus, not in areas near the border with Ukraine.
Video from one of the rail yards showed troops unloading trucks and other equipment from rail cars in the early morning fog.
However, as Russian troops head to Moscow’s client state, Belarusian tanks are headed for Russia. It’s believed the T-72s seen on these rail cars in Orsha, Belarus, will go to replace continued Russian losses on the Ukrainian frontline. Russia has become desperate for functional armor. Case in point, there is now an initiative underway to restore and upgrade hundreds of decades-old Cold War-era T-62 tanks, a process that will take years to fully complete.
Despite these moves, there is a report of Russian troops massing in the southeastern city of Gomel, immediately across the border from the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv. Ukraine has had concerns about Belarus’ formal entry into the war since Russia staged its multi-pronged invasion from the country in February. However, any attack could be strictly diversionary to take pressure off the deteriorating situation for Russian forces in Kherson.
—
-—> Too Little, Too Late - A Guide To Russia’s Armed Drones <——
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/10/too-little-too-late-guide-to-russias.html
—
-—> The Oryx Handbook Of Iranian Drones (Arash-2 =Kian) <——
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2019/09/the-oryx-handbook-of-iranian-drones.html
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
No major changes.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area: no changes.
- North Donbass area: no changes -
Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Belarus Build Up:
The most important development is that Russian troops are arriving back in Belarus, specifically Russian troops were spotted on trains arriving in Gomel, which is large regional center, and a springboard to attack Ukraine - the central northern part of Ukraine. That’s what they used in the past in February and March.
(Edit: Currently Belarus is reporting that it will host only 9,000 Russian troops.)
It looks like there are plans to open up the northern front line, and there are a lot of speculations, reports on the Russian propaganda channels that there will be new attack from north within months. I’m just sharing it that face value, I’m not saying that its possible to predict probability of that happening.
••Attack Scenarios:
The only that this could be wild viable attack that we can explain is the following: the mobilization, the way its going is to have 300,000 soldiers go to refill existing Russian units that are deployed in Ukraine, and are fighting, so they can maintain existing frontline. There’s extreme amount of evidence that, while there are 300,000 soldiers being conscripted, the real number looks more towards 1,000,000.
If you have got 500,000 or 600,000, you can try to attack again from north, and try to to capture Kiev. If you have 500,000 soldiers, you have a chance. This is the only way that can be explained, otherwise this is probably just a show, just a distraction by Russian and Belarus leadership to keep Ukrainian units up north, potentially as a defense against the potential of renewed Russian attack.
Again this is the only explanation to explain it; at the same time these new conscripts, even 500,000 for this Northern attacking force, are to not prepared; there’s simply not enough time and given the time frame was in months that’s being by Russian propaganda channels.
Its a crazy adventure because soldiers cannot be prepared in a few months, especially street fighting in a large multi-millions city; it requires skills, it requires knowledge, it requires extremely high level of coordination between the units - within a cohesion within the unit.
From that perspective it doesn’t make any sense. At the same time predicting the insanity of a Russian side is really impossible; anything is possible theoretically, but I would say that probability of that is pretty low.
••Sending Tanks out of Belaus:
However, another contradictory factor here is there are a lot of reports of Russias or Belarus equipment being transferred to Russian troops and being transferred out of Belarus into Russia. It also doesn’t make sense to transfer equipment you need outside of Belarus for an attack to Russian territory to where the Russians are preparing for an attack on a different front.
Again this whole situation looks very potentially just like a fake story. Its theoretically possible, given the number of conscripts is definitely much higher than 300,000 and needing at least 500,000 troops to successfully capture Kiev within a reasonable period of time - within two weeks and really you need more like 700,000-800,000 to to do it in a relatively decisive way.
••China:
Another data point is the Minister of Foreign Affairs of China urged its citizens - those who still remaining in Ukraine to immediately leave the country. As we all know, China is a silent Russian ally, effectively participating, but at the same time not participating - as opposed to Iran which is openly participating in supporting Russia.
••Kian or Arash-2 UAV:
There are rumors on the Russian side that being spread on Russian channels that Iran now supplying new UAVs to Russian military, called Arash-2. Its a fairly fresh UAV that was introduced in 2022; there is, unfortunately, not much specific specification information - only very general information available is: range between 1500 and 2000km which opens up a lot of possibilities. On the weak side, the cruising speed is about 150km to 200km hour.
The amount of high explosives that it can carry is larger than Shahid 136 which is 40 kgs up to 50kg of high explosive. There are sources that say its up to 100kg; its probably 60 to 100kgs which is pretty significant and opens up more possibilities. (Edit: the Arash 2 was designed to specifically to attack cities.)
••Energy Grid:
Russian military continued a trimmed down version of the attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure; its at most, 10% of their first two days, probably even dropped to like 5%. The damage done is a couple more percent of capacity lost.
There are the first blackouts when people have to shut down and not use electricity all. The system for now is stable - I’m not saying that its in great condition; its living off band-aids, so its its stable on bad days, which is not great situation at all.
What’s gonna happen, especially if everything stays stable & there are no more attacks, what’s going to happen with the system in the winter remains to be seen. There’s still high chance of the energy system collapsing, even on its own because winter is a stress time for energy systems from the many demands for electricity, from the harsh conditions. so everything is tested.
Ukrainian side is also responding tit-for-tat attacks against Russian energy infrastructures; there were a couple of attacks again in Belogord region here around Belogord and then I think close to Valuyki, but those attacks are no match for the Russian attacks. The biggest challenge Russia’s side faces is really psychological, forcing a lot of people to flee and leave becoming like a dead zone for the Russian side..
North Luhansk’:
Russian troops are attempting to counter attack and the same axis of the counter attack is the Termy they want us they try to split Ukrainian troops that are between these two rivers into two pieces and then destroy is each piece separately.
Russian sources report that Ukrainian command has assembled large group of troops with an impending offensive was toward Svatove this is not official, but could be panicky reports on the Russian side, maybe a psychological response, saying to Ukrainian command, ‘we know you want to do this, so it’ll don’t do it, because we’re prepared’.
Ukrainian troops are advancing at a snail pace here very slow, extremely slow. (Edit: clearing mine fields and repairing damage to infrastructure, documenting war crimes, etc.)
The opportunity for exploitation of the situation was months ago and has been completely lost - its not coming back because Russian conscripts are flooding the front line, specifically here and also Kherson Bridgehead; those two are in the most critical condition for the Russian side, and Russian side wants to keep the status quo at all costs, right now.
The independent Russian media outlet ASTRA has published an interview with a claimed eyewitness of the mass shooting yesterday at a Russian army training facility. He says that the shooting arose from a dispute between Muslim and Christian soldiers.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1581692332688125952?s=20&t=HvqUouHLspY7GVJ9c7RxZQ
“MSM Confirms Ukraine Crisis in Bakhmut; Ukraine Kherson Defeat; Putin Makes Hint of End of Ukraine”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9WZYq1ebus
ASTRA has new information on the mass shooting in Belgorod.
- 30 Russian soldiers killed
- LT Andrei Lapin (right in pic) crossed Muslim soldiers by calling Allah a coward
- The Tajik attackers had earlier complained about not being allowed to pray on set times.
The shooting happen 1.5 hours after the first verbal conflict.
The shooting took place at a gun range & LT Lapin was the first one to be killed before the Tajiks turned their weapons on the rest of the soldiers.
The Tajiks had warned others, Dagestanis, Azeris etc to stay away
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1581721998824087552
The truth is probably even worse. Just wait until this Russian military rabble is under Ukrainian guns. It won’t get any better for Russia from here. Guaranteed.
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