Posted on 11/28/2022 9:11:32 AM PST by Timber Rattler
The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland. Russian forces have been digging trench lines and concentration areas in eastern Kherson since early October 2022 in obvious preparation for the withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City. Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting across the river, nor are the Russians prioritizing defensive positions to stop such a crossing. The Russian military is setting conditions for a protracted defense in eastern Kherson Oblast that could allow the establishment of a solid Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The assessment that follows examines the Russian defensive laydown and evaluates the expectations for the flow of operations likely guiding that laydown exclusively.
(snip)
Russian defensive positions are optimized to defend against Ukrainian forces attempting to advance along GLOCs rather than driving cross-country as Ukrainian forces have previously done. Russian forces concentrated most of their defenses at multiple locations astride critical GLOCs, establishing only a handful in the open fields between the highways. However, Ukrainian forces have previously conducted long cross-country drives in Kharkiv Oblast to capitalize on their success in breaking through Russian defensive lines near Balakliya, enabling them to more quickly advance on and surround Russian strongpoints such as Kupyansk and Izyum and push Russian forces from the Siverskyi Donets River in Kharkiv Oblast to the international border in most of the oblast.
(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...
Most of the Russian field fortifications in eastern Kherson are nevertheless optimized to defend against drives along the roads and would be very vulnerable to envelopments across the open countryside. Many of the fortifications across the roads do not extend far past the roads themselves, often just far enough to provide good fields of fire from both sides onto the road itself. Most of these positions have open flanks terminating in the middle of fields. The flanks are often not refused (drawn back) or otherwise well-designed to deter or defend against attacks from the sides or rear. Many of these positions are not in tactical supporting distance of one another, moreover, which would make each vulnerable to Ukrainian tactical envelopments. Satellite imagery shows that Russian forces have constructed dragon’s teeth anti-tank structures around their positions immediately on the roads, but those anti-tank arrays do not extend far enough into the open fields to prevent Ukrainian tanks and other tracked vehicles from enveloping the Russian lines.
The Institute for the Study of War.
Says it all.
The Kagan family propaganda mill.....
Right up there with CIA/MI6 fronts like Oryx and Bellingcat.....
Nov 27, 2022
Update on Russian military operations in and around Ukraine for November 28, 2022.
- Battle front is stable, Russian forces are pushing back amid stalled Ukrainian offensives;
- Russia continues dismantling Ukraine's power grid, leaving millions without electricity;
- US claims Russia is committing "war crimes" despite the US having targeted power grids repeatedly amid multiple wars of aggression;
- Western sources claim Russia is running out of cruise missiles because of older cruise missiles allegedly turning up in Ukraine;
- Using older cruise missiles and target drones to spoof enemy air defense systems is a long-standing and successful tactic;
- Western media admits growing complications regarding Ukraine's use of donated heavy weapons;
The Ukrainian counter offensive petered out after accomplishing very little. Russia has decimated their infrastructure and the winter offensive will be devastating.
So says Russia Today?
Ha! Or Sputnik!
I’s venture that being on the verge of cutting off Crimea from the mainland is more than “very little.”
Except that the Ukrainians liberated Kherson and retook the Kinburn Peninsula.
You missed that news Comrade Circlecity?
These two peoples will fight till there isnt anyone left.
Not from me, from a lady from Poland who we know. The difference between the Ukainians and the Russians is that the Russians will shake your hand face to face and then stab you in the back once you turn around. The Ukrainians will simply stab you face to face and pretend they are not guilty of anything.
I.E. the other day the mayor of Kiev countered what the queer accused him of. The queer then sent armed men over to his residence after with the excuse of investigation of tax issues.
Yesterday, the Austrian I have been talking to said that the Pole mercenarys have been refusing to follow suicidal orders from the Ukrainian military commanders. One incident resulted in a brief firefight between them. Nobody got killed..that was the word.
She also said months ago that if Americans pretend to visit certain areas of Europe these days, they had better expect a unwelcoming attitude from those areas. They are blaming the USA for this.
“Except that the Ukrainians liberated Kherson and retook the Kinburn Peninsula.”
“Liberated”? Hardly.
As with any other alleged Ukrainian PR victory, they only occurred after the Russians withdrew and left them an empty city, town, open cow land......
Lol - Russia just withdrew behind a river. They are reinforcing their army’s while Ukraine is starving and freezing. I know who I’d bet on.
And the Institute for the Study of War is intrinsically better how?
Please prove this here.
The Guardian and Democracy Now detailed the amount of land that has been retaken (6,000sq km+/- out of the 120k sq km Russia has taken) and the cost in Ukrainian soldier lives and armor so far was a steep price to retake it compared to what Russia lost. Unsustainable for Ukraine.
And Russia will take it all back and more in the Winter offensive. Ukraine is done. They can play with their increasingly ineffective western toys but to no effect. They are done.
With what? The Russian basic training is a joke, they have no NCO corps worth the name, a depleted officer corps, depleted numbers of regular troops, are unable or unwilling to rotate troops out of the front, and are having severe problems with logistics and heavy equipment.
The Ukrainians overhauled their army after the 2014 debacle, have decently trained troops, an actual NCO corps, a decent officer corps, are rotated on a regular basis, and are reasonably well supplied.
Any offensive by the Russian Army will be costly, will be forced back and will deplete their reserve of trained troops.
the Russians withdrew and left them an empty city, town, open cow land.”
Why?
Because the Ukrainian military cut off Russias ability to supply its forces. It was a very smart Ukrainian stratgey that paid off.
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