Threat Matrix

The Chinese balloon controversy has continued to “balloon” with a lot of unanswered questions as to why the military/govt allowed it to continued over sensitive military sites in the US.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The United Nations just sounded alarm bells about the rise of hate speech. “The rise and impact of hate speech is being amplified at an unprecedented scale … threatening peace around the world,” the authors of a Jan. 30 report wrote .

The report joins a flurry of recent warnings — by members of the European Union, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres , and others — about the rise of hate speech, as well as calls for the U.S. government to crack down on the problem.

OBSERVATION – What is important here are the definitions of the terms used. “hate speech” according to the leftists and globalists is that which challenges the narrative. Their demands for the US govt to ‘crack down’ is nothing more than an effort to undermine and eliminate our constitution.

CW2/Domestic violence –

The House on Thursday approved a resolution denouncing socialism in a bipartisan vote that fractured the Democratic caucus. The resolution overwhelmingly cleared the chamber in a 328-86-14 vote. The majority of Democrats — 109 of them — voted with all Republicans for the resolution, while 86 voted against it and 14 voted “present.” “Congress denounces socialism in all its forms, and opposes the implementation of socialist policies in the United States of America,” the resolution reads.

OBSERVATION – Sad that this vote wasn’t unanimous. This goes to show the subversive element in the congress. Yet even those democrats that voted in support (and likely some republicans) will vote for socialistic laws in the future anyway.

**
On Thursday, the Virginia Senate Education and Health Committee blocked Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s bill that would have required schools to notify students and their parents if they won national merit awards and recognition along with other college scholarship opportunities. 7News has been covering this as a part of our Crisis in the Classroom coverage. The bill was introduced after several Virginia schools didn’t notify students of their national merit recognition in time for important college and scholarship deadlines.

OBSERVATION – not all components of the developing CW2/Great Divorce are bullets and burning buildings. Much of today’s activity is directed at splitting up the social constructs and subordinating the tyrannical over the masses. The actions in Virginia are but one battle in what we used to call the culture war. Here if everyone doesn’t get a trophy, no one gets a trophy attitude is in effect. Our children are a critical battle ground for the left and we’re seeing this from scholastic achievement, LGBT/Trannie “grooming”, CRT indoctrination etc. It doesn’t surprise me that the leftists in the DoJ consider parents to be potential “domestic terrorists” when they confront leftifst school boards and officials.

RELATED - The House Judiciary Committee fired off its first subpoenas under the leadership of Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), targeting a trio of Biden administration officials including Attorney General Merrick Garland over a short-lived memo dealing with threats against school board members.
The subpoenas, sent also to FBI Director Christopher Wray and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, follow a series of more than 100 letters on the 2021 memo from Judiciary Republicans.

Garland signed the memo in October of last year, noting a “disturbing spike in harassment, intimidation, and threats of violence against school administrators, board members, teachers, and staff” amid broader discussion over COVID-19 policies and how issues like race and gender are addressed at school.

OBSERVATION – Old action by the DoJ but not closed out or repudiated by Garland – his memo still stands.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

For the last 5 months, USS George H. W. Bush has remained in the Mediterranean Sea amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

China –

Following the bouncing balloon.

A second Chinese “surveillance balloon” was spotted flying over Latin America after another one traveling across the continental U.S. was detected earlier in the day, officials confirmed Friday evening.

Another was reported over Canada on Friday.

China’s foreign ministry has accused American officials of excessively “hyping” the balloon incident.
Top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi said: “China is a responsible country and has always strictly abided by international law. We do not accept any groundless speculation and hype.

Earlier a senior Pentagon official flatly rejected Beijing’s claims that a Chinese airship spotted flying over sensitive US military sites was a meteorological research balloon.

Defense officials have said the balloon’s flight path had taken it over “a number of sensitive” military sites, including the Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, which houses 150 nuclear warheads.
On Friday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken postponed a planned trip to China after Beijing admitted ownership of the balloon.

Late yesterday (Friday), a video alleging that something was “shot down” went viral on the interwebs.

OBSERVATION – Classical “in your face” actions by China. Far cheaper than a spy satellite and yet capable of producing quality intelligence. We’ve probably all see the photos of the rig, the multi-solar panel cargo of the balloon that is about the size of three school busses (and the balloon much larger). Navigation as other balloons navigate, by adjusting altitude to the prevailing wind directions – just like human operated balloons do. There are adequate, open source data on current and projected wind speeds and directions that China (or anyone else could access) to do the initial planning for such a flight. NOTE this balloon drifted over the 150 Minuteman III missile silos before moving on to Missouri where our B2 bombers are stationed.

The clown circus at the Pentagon and WH is only adding to China’s glee. It could have been shot down by a missile armed aircraft and very little potential collaterial damage on the ground (its central/eastern Montana for heavens sake with population density in the range of multiple square miles per person).

To address the viral video – it’s a nothing burger and may well be a hoax. Close viewing of the video shows the object moving very slowly with the contrail roughly parallel to the cloud deck. Seems the video shooter was the only one who heard an ‘explosion’. No Nat’l Guard deployments (as claimed) nor fighter jets were operating. The one thing I will note is that the contrail is different in some appearances to what one would consider a standard contrail, but the thick cirrostratus clouds would indicate the contrail would be substantial as cloud creation conditions were apparently good at that altitude.
See Miscellaneous below on my view of a future EMP threat from a balloon.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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RUMINT-
Leaked emails reveal that a Kremlin-linked lobbying group offered payments to several European politicians to promote pro-Russia policies. Legitimizing the annexation of Crimea being chief among them

Kerch Bridge update –
Big fire at the bridge constructions plant in Belgorod region of Russia. It has been reported that this plant is constructing trusses for the Kerch Strait bridge.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
- General staff of Armed forces of Ukraine estimates Russian losses at 130,590. IIRC other western intelligence reports I noted this week have the number around 200K.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) and relatively dryer conditions. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Mostly Russian artillery strikes, with Russian ground attacks in the Bahkmut and Kreminna areas.

Very little Russian artillery activity opposite Zaporizhia Oblast LOC.

OUTLOOK ——
Activity continues to resemble an operational pause by both sides. Gerasimov appears to be getting his cats under control and not being wasted in brutal frontal attacks and he may be just launching spoiling attacks at this time just to keep Ukraine pinned down.

Region is now overdue for the missile / drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure that were so prevalent in Dec-Jan. Could be evidence that Russia is trying to build up a stockpile for use when they kick off their offensive.

Misc of Note –

HIGH ALTITUDE BALLOONS AND THE NUCLEAR/EMP THREAT.

BLUF - The magnitude of the effect of an EMP attack on the United States, or any similar advanced country, will remain unknown until one actually happens.

“It is important to emphasize that, although EMP attacks affecting all of the continental United States are possible, smaller regional EMP attacks, launched to lower altitudes with a smaller missile or with a high-altitude balloon are probably much more likely. These lower altitude attacks would affect a much smaller area, and would probably be of a much smaller intensity, but could still be very damaging to data centers and other facilities with a high reliance upon microelectronics.”

http://www.futurescience.com/emp.html

High-altitude balloons, such as the one China has floated over mountain state military bases this week, are considered a key “delivery platform” for secret nuclear strikes on America’s electric grid, according to intelligence officials.
Spy balloons, used by Japan to drop bombs during World War II, are now far more sophisticated, can fly at up to 200,000 feet, evade detection, and can carry a small nuclear bomb that, if exploded in the atmosphere, would shut down the grid and wipe out electronics in a many-state-wide area.
The threat of balloon-launched electromagnetic pulse attacks was warned about by a congressional EMP commission and inside the military several years ago.”

“In a 2015 report for the American Leadership & Policy Foundation, Air Force Maj. David Stuckenberg, one of the nation’s leading EMP experts, wrote extensively about the threat balloons carrying bombs pose to national security.
“Using a balloon as a WMD/WME platform could provide adversaries with a pallet of altitudes and payload options with which to maximize offensive effects against the U.S.,” he wrote in the report.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/balloons-called-top-delivery-platform-for-nuclear-emp-attack

To allow a balloon of this size and potential to float into our controlled airspace unchallenged is a disastrous policy and I do think that this would be a test of an asymmetrical attack vector that China could use. The construction of the balloon system is sophisticated enough to potentially carry a small nuclear device. As noted above, a regional EMP attack via high altitude balloon is a scenario that has been considered credible threat. But before all the uneducated bleating on Nuclear EMPs, please take the time to at least read through the Future Science article linked above.

In the future, such balloons should be shot down upon detection. But our current military leadership and WH are too stupid to come to that common sense conclusion. China will likely continue to use such balloons to perfect potential, unconventional delivery methods (as there are two others reportedly in the air).

Kinda a short post today. Interweb feed swamped with coverage of the Chinese balloon fiasco. More importantly is Russian force disposition is becoming more apparent and it seems they may be rushing matters to gain the initiative before new western weapons can be incorporated into the Ukrainian arsenal. I expect OSINT analysis of this to significantly increase as the month goes forward.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Food prices jumped 11.3% over the last 12 months, many families are struggling. The New Zealand government response is punitive climate taxes and regulations on food production. Cows are the new villain to globalists because of the methane that reportedly produce. NZ has issued draconian regulation to reduce the amount of methane produced. Some farmers will need to reduce their herds to meet those targets, which many worry could drive them out of business. Government modeling suggests that by 2030, sheep and beef revenue would drop by around 20 percent — making many farms nonviable.

Socialists always find a way to kill agricultural production. The US baby formula shortage was due to government meddling. In Netherlands, socialist politicians ordered police to shoot at farmers, to enforce draconian climate action inspired fertiliser rules. Sri Lankan socialists caused a food crisis and economic crash, by implementing country wide organic farming, banning imports of fertiliser and agricultural chemicals, a move which at the time was celebrated by Western greens.

Climate change is just the latest socialist excuse for meddling. Their endless interference, taxes and pointless regulations, the conceited bureaucratic conviction that they know better than people who work the land or manage the factories, always eventually breaks something important, like people’s ability to buy enough food to feed themselves.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/02/05/as-food-prices-skyrocket-new-zealand-introduces-an-agricultural-methane-tax/

OBSERVATION – NZ has a food price crisis and they only want to make things worse. The trend is already well established. First globalists want to drastically reduce the global population. This may well be seen by the medical tyranny forcing the jabs that in themselves (if the trends continue) could kill/cripple more than the wuhan virus ever did.

Second and the subject of his item, the attack on food production. As noted
above, removal of productive farm lands, culling of herds, lack of fertilizer, sky high fuel costs, etc will lead to long term food shortages and in the short term localized famines. This will push resource wars, killing even more.

Georgia Guidestones noted a 500 million population to be desired. WEF attendees noted wanting a 50% reduction in the global population by 2030.

Wuhan virus –

More and more evidence that the effects of the mRNA jabs are decimating human immunodefenses and now appear to be able to shed produced the virus spikes to unjabbed individuals. Many are already there, but I am drifting to the view that this is a bioweapon given the fierceness it has been defended and attempts to quash any revelations of its actual nature and activity in the human body.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden’s State of the Union address is scheduled for Tuesday. How low will the viewing go?

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Democratic National Committee has decided to make South Carolina the first voting state for their 2024 presidential primary, a decision it said was made in part to prioritize non-white voters.

OBSERVATION – Not sure how well this will fly, but for the democrat sheeple they may hardly notice.

Department of Justice claims the classified documents Joe Biden illegally stored at his various homes and offices are too sensitive for members of the House intelligence committee to review.

OBSERVATION – That claim will not hold water – considering they raised no complaint over biden’s attorneys handling them. Just another delay tactic that has been perfected by the democrats over the years.

China –

Following the bouncing balloon.

Well, it was shot down in coastal waters off S Carolina yesterday, and a recovery effort is underway to retrieve the pieces.

China expressed its “strong dissatisfaction and protest” against the US shooting down of its spy balloon, saying the US was “overreacting” and it reserved the right to “take further actions” and criticized the U.S. for “an obvious overreaction and a serious violation of international practice.”

What is more disturbing is that the regime attempted to keep the overflight under wraps, until it was exposed by a photographer in Montana. Bloomberg reports the Biden admin was first aware the Chinese spy balloon entered U.S. airspace one week ago on Saturday, 28th, and had opted not to inform the American public about it until the Billings Gazette published a photo of the balloon on Thursday.

Biden was reportedly briefed on the incursion on the Saturday, 28th of Jan when it first entered US airspace over Alaska. The balloon reentered US airspace over N Idaho on Tuesday. The ‘decision’ to shoot down was made on Wednesday but the pentagon got it delayed until yesterday (safety).

The US military claims it was gathering intelligence from the balloon and was blocking (suspect jamming) the sensor package’s data back to China. Military flight trackers noted a number of airborne intelligence collection (SIGINT) platforms circling the balloon after it was revealed. However, with the balloon operating a considerable height above these airborne assets, it is questionable just how effective any jamming may have been.

Now confirmed presence of another balloon passing over central/south America and rumored third off the Canadian coast in the Pacific has many wondering just what is up. Evidence is that China has been using balloons like this for some time now – particularly over Guam and other Pacific bases.

OBSERVATION – The biden regime and our pampered princes in the Pentagon managed to create a dumpster fire if epic proportions in how it handled this. This was not just a “balloon” but a deliberate intrusion into our sovereign airspace and the indifference they displayed in handling it made us the laughing stock of the world.

I seriously question their statement that they were able to jam comms from the balloon – The airborne assets noted flying around it are known to be collectors and note EW platforms. So most likely the balloon got its data passed back to China.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are likely setting conditions to reach the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) and relatively dryer conditions. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister stated that Russian forces have committed a substantial portion of their forces to offensive operations against Bakhmut intending to break through Ukrainian defenses in the past week but that they have been unsuccessful. Fighting locally there has reportedly been fierce. In order to support the Bahkmut assault, Russian forces are reportedly neglecting frontlines around Donetsk City.

OSINT analysts are noting an increase in concentrating troops and military equipment by Russia in the Bakhmut region as well as in the Kreminna region.

Unconfirmed reports that Russia is added 30,000 troops in the greater Mariupol area in the south. They could be associated with a Russia attempted an offensive in the Vuhledar region, Zaporizhia Oblast over the course of last week and by unconfirmed reports by both Russian and Ukraine sources got hit pretty hard. One Russian unit, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade was decimated once again, same unit that lost 50% of its forces in another battle several months ago.

Russia over the past week has attempted some counter-offensive operations around Kreminna, possibly in a move to position forces in more favorable jumping off positions for the anticipated Russian offensive later this winter/early spring.

OUTLOOK ——
Russian forces have committed a substantial portion of their forces to offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut intending to break through Ukrainian defenses. It appears that the Russian plans for their offensive may well be concentrated on the Bakhmut – Kreminna line as the most direct assault route to capture Donbas. Kreminna – Svatove line also is critical for Russia to supply materials to the northern flank of the assault – so they must secure that region as well.

Some analysts are suggesting that the Russian efforts in Bakhmut and Kreminna are designed to eventually encircle Siversk when their offensive kicks off. It is a key transportation hub that would facilitate Russian logistical needs in taking Donbas.

A Ukrainian military officer reported that Russian forces continue to bring in artillery and infantry personnel into the Vuhledar area and are likely preparing for the slow grinding assaults characteristic of Russian offensives in the rest of eastern Ukraine. This sector may provide a secondary assault or may be reflecting concerns over a Ukrainian offensive into Crimea.

Some are questioning Russia’s ability to launch a fully supported and coordinated effort on the scale necessary to capture Donbas. The attrition of trained forces since last February and the loss of a thousands of tanks and armored vehicles and artillery is a difficult hurdle to overcome. Futher, command and control issues haven’t been resolved, in fact have been made worse by the entry of HIMARS and rapid targeting into the equation. Losses of officers and NCOs only make matters worse.

Iran –

Iran’s supreme leader on Sunday reportedly ordered an amnesty or reduction in prison sentences for “tens of thousands” of people detained amid nationwide anti-government protests shaking the country, acknowledging for the first time the scale of the crackdown.

The decree by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, part of a yearly pardoning the supreme leader does before the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, comes as authorities have yet to say how many people they detained in the demonstrations. State media offered a list of caveats over the order as well that means those with ties abroad or facing internationally criticized spying charges wouldn’t be eligible.

More than 19,600 people have been arrested during the protests, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that’s been tracking the crackdown. At least 527 people have been killed as authorities violently suppressed demonstrations, the group said. Iran hasn’t offered a death toll for months. It already has executed at least four people detained amid the protests after internationally criticized trials.

OBSERVATION - An indicator of the scale of the govt crackdown on the protests and likely an attempt to cool the opposition to the regime.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The United Nations is releasing a report in June regarding the “perceived contradictions” between religious freedom and sexual orientation and gender identity, or SOGI, laws and is looking to push governments to “fully comply with their obligations under international human rights law to protect and empower LGBT+ persons,” according to a U.N. announcement.
The U.N. closed a call for LGBT+ and religious freedom organizations to submit input to the report earlier this month and is scheduled to introduce its findings at the 53rd Human Rights Council meeting in June, according to the announcement. The announcement explains that while there are “perceived contradictions” between the LGBT+ community and religious freedom, the report aims to find ways to “protect LGBT+ persons’ access to faith and spirituality” while also indicating that religious beliefs that would contradict this are not “justified” under the protection of human rights.

OBSERVATION – One of the key targets of the WEF and the globalists is the elimination of Christianity and Judeo-Christian culture from the world. The only ‘religion’ these globalists tolerate (currently ) are those of pagan origin.

**
Canada’s Parliament passed an amendment to the “Canadian Human Rights Act and the Criminal Code.” Under the amendment, Canada now recognized “gender expression” and “gender identity” as protected rights. Significantly, according to the Library of Parliament’s summary:
[The amendment] also adds that evidence that an offence was motivated by bias, prejudice or hate based on a person’s gender identity or expression constitutes an aggravating circumstance for a court to consider when imposing a criminal sentence.

In other words, as Peterson accurately noted, in Canada, you can go to prison for “misgendering” a person. The fact that your religion recognizes only two fixed sexes (male and female) is irrelevant. You will be compelled, at the barrel of a gun, to state those pronouns.

OBSERVATION – Just the beta test run by a compliant Canada to the WEF goals listed above.

Wuhan virus –

Rumors of a report stating that data from NSW Australia was so bad that they decided to just not report the vaccination status of the hospitalized anymore.
Reportedly, 100% of those hospitalized with covid were vaccinated.

Invasion of Illegals –

Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Ed Markey (D-MA), and Cory Booker (D-NJ) sent a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland requesting information on what they said were paramilitary groups patrolling the southern border. The Senators said they were alarmed by claims that civilian paramilitary groups on the border were acting in concert with local, state, and federal law enforcement.

https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/senators_letter_to_the_biden_administration_on_vigilante_groups_at_the_southern_us_border_-_january_2023pdf1.pdf

OBSERVATION – Can also cross file under CW2. Allegedly, patriot groups are independently patrolling the border and in some cases helping local law enforcement. The leftists cant have any of this and I’m sure the DoJ will jump right into it going after these “domestic terrorists”. This could turn potentially hot if FBI/US marshal weenies try to force the issue.

Most often as in the past, civilian patrols have occurred on private property adjacent to/near the border. This results in a citizen’s arrest scenario. Local LEOs and likely BP personnel have turned a blind eye to these patrols as they are seen as support to their operations to contain the flood of illegals.

One other area of concern would be the push by heavily armed cartels to challenge these patrols – which could turn into a fire fight.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden’s State of the Union address is scheduled for Tuesday.

CW2/Domestic violence –

BLM/ANTIFA et al protests have quieted down, largely due to the fact that they could not muster a racist aspect to go along with the killing of Tyre Nichols. Anti-police action hasn’t been enough to move the masses.

Cyber Warfare –

Italy was hit with a massive cyberattack yesterday and alerts went out to other organizations globally.

China –

Following the bouncing balloon.

Another Chinese spy balloon crashed off the coast of Hawaii four months ago, US officials say.

Other reports that balloons drifted over the US during the trump administration – but the military failed to report them. Trump aids that would have been in the know repudiate any claims of balloon overflights.

North/South Korea –

Kim Jong Un has not been seen in public for over a month. Senior North Korean officials held a politburo meeting on Sunday without their leader Kim Jong Un.

OBSERVATION – More of where is Kim. The country has been quiet lately.

Japan –

Japan’s government agreed to restrict exports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. Japan joined the Netherlands and the U.S. in an attempt to restrict semiconductor technology transfers to China that could be used in military applications.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Logistics –
- According to Russian customs data, China state-owned defense contractors are now providing Russia with navigation equipment, electronic warfare technology, and jet-fighter parts. The customs data indicates China is providing tens of thousands of defense hardware components that are considered dual-use technology.

- The Wall Street Journal: Moscow and Tehran are planning to establish a factory for Iranian drones in Russia. This arrangement has been noted earlier, now appears to be more formalized.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) and relatively dryer conditions. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.

RUMINT –
Suspected Ukrainian Tu-141 Strizh drone crashed in Kaluga, Russia. If true, the deepest penetration into Russia by Ukraine to date.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched one of its largests attacks against Bahkmut and vicinity, pushing hard on both north and south flanks in addition to a frontal assault. Current intelligence on what the current tactical situation is still very fuzzy but it appears Russian has made gains on the flanks and may have succeeded in technically surrounding the town. By that I mean that Russia has Ukrainian resupply routes into the city from the west under direct/indirect fire.

However, reports coming out this morning indicate that the assault may have suffered due to refusal of Wagner forces to coordinate with Russian troops – and vice versa.

Other reports of a large Russian attacks west of Kreminna with heavy fighting.

Activity has picked up overnight in the Donetsk area, with numerous Russian attacks. Russia also increased shelling on the Ukrainian side of the Dnipir River around Kherson.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia may be trying to launch pre-emptive offensive actions against Bahkmut in particular as well as Kreminna and Donetsk. Some analysts are seeing these actions as attempts by Russian to gain the initiative prior to Ukraine getting rearmed with new western tanks and other equipment.
Though info is still fuzzy, it appears that the Russian attacks were largely repelled. The large force put together for the assault indicates the importance of capturing the city Russia has made.

I see similar Russian attacks in the future, while Ukraine maintains economy of force mobile defensive operations, making Russia bleed for every inch of ground.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Russia’s foreign minister has warned that Moldova could meet the same fate as Ukraine. He says that the West is stirring up anti-Russian sentiment.

OBSERVATION – Transnistria remains a boil on Moldova’s rear. But the threat from Russian forces has been decreased because they’ve withdrawn a considerable number of the troops manning the garrison for the Ukraine conflict. Absent the desired “land bridge”, Russia has few options to force itself further on Moldova.

Syria -

Syria government media reporting at least 237 dead and more than 630 injured mainly in Aleppo city from Sunday’s M7.8 quake in Turkey. Hospitals in Afrin and Al-Bab, Syria, have reached their maximum capacity

Turkey -

Turkey has been hit overnight with two major primary quakes. The first a massive 7.8 magnitude striking Central Turkey felt all the way into Israel and building collapses and loss of life into Syria.

Rapid damage estimation using CATDAT for the Turkey Earthquake in the order of 11,400 deaths (Range: 3,200 to 25,900) with estimates of economic damage in the order of $10+ bn USD. This quake was centered along the East Anatolyan fault zone that trends northeast from Northern Syria.

Within the past few hours a second major quake has hit further north - M 7.5 - 4 km SSE of Ekinözü, Turkey. This quake appears to be along a fault zone that is predominantly east-west in southern Turkey. Aftershocks are tracking along both fault zones.

Both fault zones are transform in nature (like the San Andreas). Poor construction practices will contribute to the expected loss of life – numerous videos on the interwebs show apartment building pancaking from the first quake onto sleeping residents.

OBSERVATION - This is an example of a Black Swan event(s) hitting Turkey at the wrong time. Its economy is in the dumpster, it is borderline over extended on international/regional issues and they have persistently been the NATO/EU problem child. Yes they will get aid, but the damage from two widely separated megaquakes will be nearly impossible to overcome in the short term.

Major note for the US- we are not exempt from an similar Black Flag event and its results would be almost as catastrophic to multiple sectors of our economy. A similar fault pair occurred several years ago around Ridgecrest, where a large quake on the northwest trending Little Lake fault zone triggered a larger quake on the right lateral transform Garlock Fault.

Central / South America General-

The Chinese-owned Las Bambas mine in Peru, which produces 2% of the world’s copper, was closed after protests made operations impossible to continue. According to the National Society of Mining, Petroleum, and Energy (SNMPE), 30% of Peru’s copper production is at risk due to political unrest. (FO)

OBSERVATION – With the possibility of civil unrest spreading to in Chile copper – rich areas of western South America are facing disruption by leftists which will drive copper prices (and products using copper) even higher if these disruptions continue.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The latest major food supplier to go up in flames, is New Zealand’s largest egg producer - after a blaze broke out on Monday, killing around 75,000 hens.

New Zealand has been in the grip of an egg shortage since the start of the year, when it put an end to battery farming. The ban had been in the works since 2012 and battery hen numbers had dropped over time to make up just 10% of overall egg production – but their final outlawing at the start of January has still been enough to jolt the egg supply chain, leaving supermarket shelves empty, shop owners policing tray purchases and big-breakfast lovers bereft.
The shortage has reached the point of contention: one small-town supermarket banned a cruise ship crew from further egg purchases after they cleared the shelves; newspapers have issued advice columns on egg-free baking and tofu scrambles; and in January, the SPCA released an advisory telling New Zealanders not to engage in kneejerk purchases of back yard poultry, after concerns that a rise in amateur chicken ownership would result in the animals not being properly cared for. -The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/06/fears-of-worsening-egg-shortage-in-new-zealand-as-fire-kills-75000-hens-at-farm

OBSERVATION – Events like this are beginning to move my needle from coincidence towards conspiracy. Food supply and the type of food “supplied” were key issues at the recent Davos confab. One way of reducing the food supply is to eliminate the sources of food.

**
One of Klaus Schwab’s top deputies at the World Economic Forum (WEF) is stepping down from his role after over a decade of being the top information operatives executive at the ruling class narrative and ideas incubator.

Adrian Monck, the managing editor and comms director of WEF, announcedthe news in a LinkedIn post. Monck oversaw the WEF’s notorious Young Global Leaders and Global Shapers programs, which Schwab infamously bragged had helped the outfit to “penetrate the cabinets” of foreign governments.

Prior to the recent Davos, Monck sought to mitigate the reputational damage to the WEF, churning out a series of articles claiming the outfit is the victim of “disinformation campaigns.”

OBSERVATIONS – WEF has taken a lot of hits as pushback from the wuhan plandemic has grown, increased resentment from the sheeple over the failure of the ‘green’ energy policies leaving people in the cold and dark and intrusive personal monitoring and surveillance plans. This year’s Davos was hit with a lot of notes of its hypocrisy in its calls for the new world order in the face of its rich, decadent participants and feasts.

**
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (sent out a tweet on Friday stating that gas stoves are helping to cause climate change.
“Gas prices are high,” Schumer said in his tweet.
“Gas stoves can increase asthma risk,” he said.
“Gas stoves contribute to climate change,” he said.

OBSERVATION - Globalists are not going to let go of this issue – as it is a step towards controlling/eliminating the use of natural gas by the public. Its all about power and the power to control people’s lives using the lies they promulgate.

Economy –

The U.S. money supply has contracted for the first time since the Federal Reserve started publishing the data in January 1960.
According to the latest data presented by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the M2 money-supply growth rate tumbled by 1.3 percent year-over-year in December 2022, down from 0.01 percent in November 2022. This is also sharply down from the February 2021 peak of nearly 27 percent.
In total, the national money supply stands at more than $21.2 trillion, which is still more than 37 percent above the pre-pandemic level of about $15.458 trillion.

M2 is a measurement of the U.S. money stock that includes cash, checkable deposits, traveler’s checks, small-denomination time deposits, shares in retail money market mutual funds, and other categories of deposits that can easily be converted to cash.

Many economists will contend that a slowing or contracting money supply will typically trigger a recession.

This past summer, prominent economist Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, told CNBC that the U.S. economy would slip into a recession in 2023 because of flatlining money supply growth.
“We will have a recession because we’ve had five months of zero M2 growth, money supply growth, and the Fed isn’t even looking at it,” he said. “We’re going to have one whopper of a recession in 2023.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us-money-supply-shrinks-for-first-time-since-fed-started-sharing-data_5036773.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION – The fed has had their money machine running overtime for sometime now. This could be an important indicator of the transition into a recession as noted.

Invasion of Illegals –

NYC is now buying bus tickets to ship illegals to the Canadian border.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden’s State of the Union address is scheduled for Today. The fence is back up around the Capitol.

**
Opposition to harris on the next presidential ticket is growing. It is not surprising given how she displays a lack of cohesive thought and ability to mash any topic given to her. Here are just two examples from a recent interview –
Kamala: “I think that most of us who are devout public servants understand that we in government have great possibility in terms of the range at which we work as government.”

Kamala: “Our meeting today includes...working together to talk about how we can measure the success we’ve had thus far…to help us articulate the metrics by which we will then measure our success in real-time.”

CW2/Domestic violence –

SWAT teams from multiple law enforcement agencies were deployed to the remains of the former Atlanta autonomous zone to protect construction workers as they restart efforts to build the police training facility that domestic terrorists tried to stop.

OBSERVATION – This was the base protest that eventually lead to police shooting and the killing of the activist/shooter. Atlanta has been putting up with these tree sitters for way too long.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The ‘state’ of the union will be a circus of posing politicians and blowhard commentators. However, there is not enough lipstick for the message biden is thought to be bringing. Given how his previous major speeches were close to declaring real war on the right, this could be more of the same.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

The FBI has captured two people, whom the agency describes as “racially or ethnically motivated” extremists, before they could attack Baltimore’s power grid, officials said Monday. CBS News has identified on those in custody as Brandon Russell, an alleged neo-Nazi leader from Orlando, Florida.
The FBI says it has a recording of the other suspect, Sarah Beth Clendaniel, telling an informant about the attack, “It would lay this city to waste.”

OBSERVATION – Russel is reportedly to be a member of Atomwafer (sp) white supremacists group. Reportedly the same informant that turned them in on an earlier charge was the same that did it on this one. Needless to say the potential effects of attacking substations has gained attention on both sides of the spectrum.

China –

Following the bouncing balloon.

SMH, Defense officials are now trying to say that three Chinese balloons flew across the US during the Trump administration were not detected. This comes in the face of key Trump administration figures (many turned anti Trump) denying that they received any reports of Chinese balloon incursions during his administration.

Military sources are reporting that the Chinese spy balloon carried explosives to self-detonate, was 200 feet tall, weighed thousands of pounds, and its payload was the size of a jetliner (small – three school busses)

North/South Korea –

And heeeeees back. A day after observers noted an extended absence Reuters is reporting that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has presided over a military meeting and pledged to expand the country’s drills and beef up war readiness posture.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Footage of Wagner mercenaries dragging away and killing their wounded commander during Bakhmut offensive has gone viral on the interwebs. This is what happens when you drive your prisoner/conscripts into a meat grinder while you hide behind them. In the day it was called “fragging”.

Economic Impact –
- The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in January 2023 for the first time sold gold (3.6 tons) from the National Wealth Fund to cover the budget deficit

- Russia is facing a 200% tariff on aluminum imported into the US, a move that will hurt Russia but U.S. industries reliant on aluminum imports as well.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) and relatively dryer conditions. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting remains fierce around Bahkmut with Russia picking up minimal gains to the north and south. The largest attack in months appears to be nearing its crest.

More attacks in the Donetsk area.

Information coming out now about the recent Russian attempt of an offensive in the Vuhledar region, southwest of Donetsk. Russia massed a significant armored attack on the Ukranian stronghold which fell apart in a nearly spectacular manner as Russian tanks and APCs drove blindly into a minefield, bunched up and served as a turkey shoot for Ukranian artillery. Pity the Russian infantry fleeing the destroyed APCs trying to escape the maelstrom. Rough estimates are that Russia lost essentially a BTG equivalent worth of equipment and men. Video’s posted on social media are pretty graphic, showing Russian armor and personnel bunched together and being blown apart by fire.

OUTLOOK ——
Ukrainian military is expecting Russia to start its decisive offensive around February 24 to symbolically tie the attack to the first anniversary of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. No significant buildup of Russian offensive groups in the Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions or in Belarus have been observed.

Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russia is concentrating on launching offensive operations in the east rather than in southern Ukraine
As I’ve noted before- Russia seems to be rushing to get forces in place to kick off an offensive sooner than later. The current state of the Russian forces in Ukraine make this plan highly dangerous for Russia. Any offensive may have initial success, but many in the OSINT community think that the inter unit coordination and skilled personnel necessary for a complicated operations are missing and will cause the offensive to grind to a halt very quickly. Making matters worse, Ukraine has shown itself to be adept in mobile defensive operations and will extract a heavy toll on the Russian forces. Also of not – Russia doesn’t seem to be planning to have any significant reserves to exploit any breakout.

One last note – Gerasimov reportedly has been given a directive to seize Donbas by the end of March – what I’m seeing in Russian planning is level of desperation to make that deadline.

Syria -

The earthquake has managed to essentially stop the fighting in the north as people there try to rescue those trapped in collapsed buildings and treat the injured.

Turkey -

Death toll in Turkey and Syria surpasses 5,000 and climbing fast. According to the WHO as reported by the BBC, as many as 20,000 people may have died in the quake.

OBSERVATION – The next 24 hours are critical. No water for 3 days causes the body to start to shut down and death very close behind. With thousands and thousands of collapsed buildings across the region, there are not any where near enough rescuers and equipment to meet this time line. The WHO estimate then becomes a very real projection. Yesterday, initial estimates were 3,200 to 25,900 deaths, and this was before the second 7.5 quake. People in that region are screwed and are going to be for multiple years.

Globalism / Great Reset –

(Reuters) - British consumers would be limited to holding a maximum of 20,000 pounds ($24,000) each if the Bank of England goes ahead with a digital version of the British currency, BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said on Tuesday.

“We propose a limit of between 10,000 pounds and 20,000 pounds per individual as the appropriate balance between managing risks and supporting wide usability of the digital pound,” Cunliffe said in a speech to members of UK Finance, a banking industry body.

A limit of 10,000 pounds would mean that three quarters of people could receive their pay in digital pounds as well as holding pre-existing balances in the same account, while a 20,000 pound limit would allow almost everyone to use digital pounds for day-to-day transactions, Cunliffe said.
($1 = 0.8332 pounds)

OBSERVATION – Kind of an obscure article to me, but if I read it right, there will be a limit as to how much digital currency one may hold in their account. If so, this may reflect the WEFs desire that the digital currencies act to make savings undoable, forcing people to “use it or lose it” kind of mentality. Only the global elite will be allowed to accumulate wealth and caps like the following will work in their favor.

Economy –

The amount of credit card debt owed by Americans jumped by 18.5 percent, hitting a record-high of $930.6 billion – and this is expected to climb even higher as American consumers continue to deal with inflation and rising interest rates.

“Credit card interest rates are already as high as they’ve been in decades,” noted Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst for fintech company LendingTree. “While the Fed is taking its foot off the gas a bit when it comes to raising rates, credit card APRs [annual percentage rates] almost certainly will keep climbing for at least the next few months, so it is important that cardholders continue to focus on knocking down their debt.”

TransUnion noted that the average consumer’s credit card balance rose to $5,805.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/us-credit-card-debt-jumps-18point5percent-and-hits-a-record-930point6-billion-.html

OBSERVATION – These are not good numbers. With current economic conditions, it will become increasingly difficult for consumers to pay off these bills. At minimum payment levels the pay off time is near 20 years. If the economy crashes, many credit card companies will lose big and the ability to get credit would become nearly impossible.

Biden / Harris watch –

Policy wise – nothing new came out of the SOTU dumpster fire last night. Once again biden claimed to be a uniter while in the next breath attacking republicans for policies Americans wanted.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Trans-rights activists stormed the OK state capitol demanding that a bill outlawing mutilation for gender transition purposes be eliminated for those under the age of 21.

OBSERVATION – I can only associate the madness of the trans-rights so called activists to that of demonically oppression and possession. Hardly anything else makes sense of the sudden explosion of such ‘activism’ since biden took power.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Don’t miss this – last night instead of US flags on their lapels, democrats wore an “abortion” pin. Republicans were a mixed bag, with McConnell wearing a Ukranian based tie and no American flag.

With the SOTU over, republican investigations of the plethora of biden administration’s scandals begins.

China –

The U.S. military has notified Congress that China now has more land-based intercontinental-range missile launchers than the US. According to a Pentagon report, China is on track to field 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-has-more-icbm-launchers-than-u-s-american-military-reports-11675779463?mod=hp_lead_pos10

OBSERVATION – The US is greatly delayed in getting a new ICBM on line to replace the aging Minuteman 3s and is relying heavily on sub based nuclear counter strike options to make up the shortage. The air delivery wing is hurting as well, waiting for the delivery of the B-21 to bolster that leg of the US nuclear triad.

**
Taiwan weapons firm test-fires cruise missile believed to be capable of striking central and eastern mainland China

OBSERVATION – Taiwan in a sprint to develop weapons to deal with an anticipated Chinese invasion.

**
The People’s Bank of China and the government of Brazil reached an agreement on Tuesday to establish cross-border payment clearing in the Chinese renminbi.

OBSERVATION - I’ve been monitoring Chinese maneuverings like this. In addition to trying to undermine the dollar as the global currency, these moves are working to permit China to function in the event of actions against Taiwan and the resulting sanctions. Some do not see the Renminbi being strong enough yet to fully replace the dollar, but in the case of smaller countries will make it more difficult for the US to exercise controls.

North/South Korea –

Illuminated aircraft flew low over Pyongyang around 1 am Wednesday, videos seen by NK News show, suggesting that North Korea has begun an anticipated military parade to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the foundation of the Korean People’s Army.

Japan –

Japanese and Taiwanese leaders have been meeting to discuss defensive matters of mutual concern – basically China.

OBSERVATION – Japan is concerned about a Chinese take over of islands it controls that are within 70 miles of Taiwan.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

(TASS) - Russia has demanded the US embassy in Moscow stop spreading what the Kremlin regards as fake news regarding its military operation in Ukraine and has threatened to expel US diplomats.

OBSERVATION - Russia beating its chest for the locals and popularity polls.

Economic Impact –
- The Russian stock market began to decline after the news of a “voluntary contribution to the budget” (ie tax) was proposed.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) and relatively dryer conditions. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian army focused on offensive operations near Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, Opytne, Maryinka and Vuhledar overnight. Russians made slow progress in their efforts to encircle Bakhmut using the tactic of walking intense artillery fire ahead of lighter ground forces. This is a tactic they used earlier this spring.

At Avdiyivka and especially Vuledar, Russian forces have been mauled by Ukranian defenses. What can only be described as inept deployment of Russian armor has resulted in losses on a huge scale.

Ukraine continues to hammer command and logistics sites deep in Russian controlled terroritory as evidenced by reports of 5 big explosions in port area of Mariupol.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia will achieve encirclement of Bakhmut, but it will take them at least a couple more weeks at the rate they are progressing at. They are focusing a lot of resources on the fight and one can only speculate that the reason may be that they think it would make a good jump off point for their offensive. From Bakhmut they could swing north to Kreminna and south towards Donetsk in an effort to encircle more Ukrainian forces.

The major flaw in that plan is the ongoing, dismal employment of tanks/armor and the inability to coordinate actions to achieve tactical and strategic goals. The ongoing disaster for Russia armor at Vuledar is a case in point. Russia may overwhelm Ukrainian defenses by shear weight of the numbers of bodies they throw at it with localized, massive artillery superiority, but exploitations require a lot more coordination and logistics. Poorly trained and supplied Russian units will likely face even worse conditions than the far better equipped and trained forces did last year when the war started - and with devistiating results after initial successes.

The timing of the Russian offensive is still in the air IMHO. The substantial effort at Bakhmut takes away scarce forces and supplies that will desperately be needed for the offensive and follow-on defense against Ukrainian counter-offensive. I still see pressure to execute the Russian offensive in full force by the end of Feb/early March to achieve putins desired capture of the Donbas. Can they pull off the planning for such an attack while at the same time devoting substantial resources towards the Bahkmut fight?

.
Europe / NATO General –

The German Security Council approves the delivery of 178 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine

OBSERVATION – This has been a significant turn around of the German Govt, I wonder who pressed the right buttons to overcome their resistance?

Syria -

Earthquake recovery efforts continue. However, it seems most of the aid is headed to Turkey and not so much to Syria.

Turkey -

Death toll is risen above 10,000 and still climbing.
Families in some badly-hit areas have said the slow speed of rescue efforts means they have had no help digging through ruins to find relatives.

OBSERVATION – On this last point, if you haven’t figured it out on your own YOU ARE YOUR OWN FIRST RESPONDER. As I stated in an earlier post, there are not enough rescue teams and equipment available to deal with a disaster of this magnitude. I feel sorry for the families, but this attitude is that which comes from depending on the govt for everything in life.

Mexico -

Fentanyl was a topic in the SOTU address. Reports indicate that most (60%?) is detected at border crossings – supporting some claims that the massive tsunami of illegals have nothing to do with increased trafficking from Mexico. What is missing from that argument IMHO is that resources have been taken off the border crossings and shifted to the areas of illegal penetrations of the border- an action that removes those who’s job it is to detect illegal drugs. This makes smuggling across border check points actually more feasible and profitable as more large shipments are able to get through than before.

FURTHER NOTE - Fentanyl deaths here in my corner of the Redoubt, thousands of miles from the Mexican border, if at an all time high and climbing higher. Our region has been suffering from meth for years, and now this. This increase directly correlates to when biden took power and essentially opened the border.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Broadcaster Amol Rajan from the BBC asked Gates in an interview that aired last Friday how he responds to criticism he uses private planes generating outsized carbon emissions while urging political and business leaders to act aggressively against “climate change.”

Gates replied he more than offsets his own emissions by paying for the removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide. He was speaking after having flown to Kenya before the interview.

“Well, I buy the gold standard, of funding Climeworks, to do direct air capture that far exceeds my family’s carbon footprint,” the Microsoft co-founder said, repeating an argument often used by other members of the global elites.

OBSERVATION – Do as I say, not as I do. And while they force you to eat bugs, they will continue to eat prime rib.

Economy –

A handful of Fed officials Wednesday pointed to continued strength in the job market as evidence inflation pressures remain persistent, likely requiring the Fed to continue raising interest rates and keep them elevated for a longer period.
“There’s not much evidence in my view that the rate hikes we’ve done so far are having much of an effect on the job market,” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in a town hall at the Boston Economic Club. “So that means we need to do more. How much more, I’m not sure.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/fed-officials-point-to-still-high-wage-growth-for-more-rate-hikes-need-to-do-more-214403408.html

OBSERVATION – Fed not clear on its path forward thru 2023 with the mixed economic signals. These comments were post jobs report where 500K+ jobs were allegedly added to the economy.

**
U.S. bond manager Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is sticking to its previous forecast that the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession, despite recent data indicating economic resilience.
An employment report last week showed U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in January while the unemployment rate hit a more than 53-1/2-year low of 3.4%, pointing to a tight labor market that could be a headache for the Federal Reserve in its battle against inflation.
Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO North American economist, said the strong economic data suggests a recession may come later than previously expected, but remains likely.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/u-s-recession-pimco/2023/02/08/id/1107812/

OBSERVATION – has the can been kicked down the road, or is the bump still out of sight?

Biden / Harris watch –

State of Union TV Ratings: Trump:
2017: 48 Million
2018: 45.6 Million
2019: 46.8 Million
2020: 37.2 Million

Biden (2023): 27.3 Million

**
Spanish Media asked Kamala Harris about Jill Biden kissing her husband, her response was that they have worked closely on work against antisemitism

**
Biden is blaming the discovery of classified documents from his time as vice president and senator on former staffers who packed up his old offices.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Antifa et al has been busy supporting the trans rights protests across the nation. Probably due to the violent nature of trans groups towards its opponents – Churches, state/local govt, etc.

**
A recently retired FBI supervisory intelligence analyst told Congress in a whistleblower disclosure that agents in Boston were improperly pressured by Washington to open criminal cases on 140 people who had simply taken a bus ride to the Jan. 6 rally in Washington. The agents refused because there was no evidence the attendees engaged in any criminality, the whistleblower said.

George Hill, a military veteran and longtime analyst for the National Security Agency (NSA) and FBI who retired last year from the Bureau’s Boston field office, told Just the News on Wednesday night that he disclosed concerns earlier this week to the House Judiciary Committee during a transcribed deposition, including that the Bureau analyzed banking data without evidence of a crime — simply to find Americans who traveled to Washington around the time of Jan. 6 or who owned a gun.

https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/new-whistleblower-says-fbi-tried-open-criminal-cases-140-people-just

OBSERVATION – Article raises serious questions about the attitude and direction of the DoJ/FBI and how it views citizens exercising their constitutional rights. At least in part, there are some in the FBI – those who refused to open investigations – that suggest there are some good guys in place, they are far too few in the face of the number of political law enforcement ‘actions’ and the overall direction of the DoJ/FBI to label citizens as ‘domestic terrorists’. When the govt fights its citizens over legitimate, constitutionally protected actions – they set up conditions for an eventual conflict.

**
The FBI’s Richmond field office released an internal memo last month warning against “radical traditionalist Catholic ideology,” and claiming it “almost certainly presents new mitigation opportunities,” according to a document shared by an FBI whistleblower on Wednesday.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/fbi-internal-memo-warns-against-radical-traditionalist-catholic-ideology/

OBSERVATION – “mitigation” – WTH, what do they mean by that term? See FBI J6 commentary above. You have become the enemy.

OVERALL ON THE DoJ/FBI posts – Not sure howmany remember the KGB and Stazi of the old Soviet empire days - That being over 30 years ago. The actions of our current DoJ/FBI are mirroring their despicable actions way too closely. Will we, like those in the Soviet Bloc, cower in fear of their reach or will be act as Americans and stand up to such bullies in a way they won’t forget? I know, pretty spicy words, but I see America fast approaching the crossroads where those questions have to be asked.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Former Twitter head of Trust and Safety Yoel Roth testified before congress yesterday and it wasn’t a pleasant experience for him after he was caught in lie after lie by the very ones he shadow banned and filtered.

POLITICAL FRONT –

House investigative committees are starting to dig in on the numerous leftist issues of the past few years. Though nothing will happen – the DoJ will ignore or refuse to prosecute the evil doers, it will still give Americans a peek at the underworld that controls the politics of the left so that America will be without excuse if it continues to condone the actions of the Marxist leftists.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Don’t have a solid category for this so planting it here for now. Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh released a report blaming the United States for last year’s Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. Hersh cites an anonymous source who told him that President Joe Biden ordered the destruction of the pipeline to convince Europe that going back to Russian oil was an impossibility. The White House denied the report. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Potentially explosive (no pun intended) if true. This would place the US in the position of an act of terror against the EU and its NATO allies. Rumors have been floating around since the explosions and that only a nation with the technology available to operate at those depths could have done it – narrowing it down to several countries, the US and Russia included.

North/South Korea –

North Korea has unveiled a new ICBM at their military parade. The new ICBM is likely a solid-fueled one. - However, some analysts think that the canister on the nine-wheel chassis is likely a mock up.

Politico notes - Images from state-run media show North Korea’s military rolling 10 to 12 Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles down the streets of Pyongyang during a Wednesday night parade. The U.S. only has 44 ground-based interceptors to launch from Alaska and California to destroy an oncoming ICBM in flight. Assuming North Korea’s weapons can fit four warheads atop them, it’s possible Pyongyang can fire more warheads at the U.S. than America has interceptors.

The Hwasong-17 has the theoretical range to make it all the way to the United States from North Korea. But Pyongyang has yet to demonstrate the warhead’s survivability upon reentry or that it could hit a desired target from so far away.

OBSERVATION – Key point is does NK have a warhead small enough for those missiles to carry and is it capable of surviving reentry. Some of the recent ICBM tests may have been conducted to test reentry vehicle protection, but the miniaturization of the bomb has yet to be proven. That is why I believe they reopened their underground facilites and made them capable for another test(s) - to test the device that they want to use in the warhead.

While NK has increased the reliability of their liquid fueled Hwasong-17’s, the development of a solid fuel rocket will greatly increase the NK threat.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

RUMINT-
Some believe that the expected Russian offensive is indeed now underway, with the main thrust near the borders between the Luhansk and Kharkiv. More under Ukraine.

Logistics –
- Russia may have lost up to half of its active tank fleet in the war with Ukraine, — CNN. The Oryx monitoring group said it had confirmed 1,000 different Russian tank losses, with another 544 captured by Ukrainian forces, 79 damaged and 65 abandoned. (NOTE- Only visually confirmed losses – doesn’t include those not documented) It has been estimated from news reports at the start of the war the active fleet was anywhere between 2800-3300 tanks

Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine, Wagner’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Thursday.
“The recruitment of prisoners by the Wagner private military company has completely stopped,” Prigozhin said in a response to a request for comment from a Russian media outlet published on social media.
“We are fulfilling all our obligations to those who work for us now,” he said.
Wagner began recruiting prisoners in Russia’s sprawling penal system in summer 2022, with Prigozhin, a catering entrepreneur who served nine years in prison during the Soviet Union, offering convicts a pardon if they survived six months in Ukraine.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3209631/ukraine-war-russias-wagner-mercenary-group-says-halting-prisoner-recruitment-campaign?utm_source=rss_feed

OBSERVATION – many reports that prisoners were told that Wagner forces experienced only a 15 % casuality rate, whereas word has come out it has been closer to 85% and that word has reached the prisons and the pool of those desperate to get out of them has dried up considerably.

- High casualities affecting not only Wagner recruiting, but Russian military as well. The high Russian casualty count is having “deleterious effects on the Russian military’s combat effectiveness and is likely in part prompting Russian officials to pursue a second wave of mobilization as the Russian military prepares for future offensives in Ukraine

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) and relatively dryer conditions. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.

RUMINT –
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The intensity of Russia’s fight around Bahkmut has some observers believing that Russia may have kicked off their offensive in an unannounced manner. Russian forces have penetrated deep on the north and south flanks, tactically isolating the city. However, it appears that Russian attacks in other locations were not so successful.

Post battle analysis by OSINT analysts indicate that Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade on the Vuhledar front was decimated for the third time. Videos/images shows at one location of the assault, 31 armored vehicles, including about 15 tanks (including T-72B3 and a T-80BVM) with the remainder BMP, MT-LB, and others were destroyed / abandoned. Other photos show dozens of bodies of dead Russian fighters scattered all around the wreckage. This is a BTG equivalent sized unit that was destroyed.

Further north, Ukrainian forces repelled heavy assaults west of Kreminna yesterday. Russian units took significant losses. Battle damage currently being assessed.

OUTLOOK –
If the upsurge in Russian attacks against Bahkmut, Kreminna, Donetsk and Vuhledar are any indicator, Russia is desperately trying to position itself to exploit these areas for the offensive. OTOH, they have been sustaining huge losses and that to sustain combat in these areas and are likely syphoning off forces and equipment necessary for greater offensive operations.

I’m not totally convinced yet that recent activity represents the official kickoff of the Russian offensive. It is certainly its most aggressive actions after months of mostly stalemate meat grinder attacks. The Bakhmut attack methodogy – massive concentrated artillery fire walking in front of largely light infantry – is not conducive to the kind of support necessary for a breakout and dynamic advance Heavy losses elsewhere along the front do not contribute to a successful campaign either.

Considerable, growing discussions about just how capable and credible are Russian threats of an offensive are. While not denying that Russia will attempt an offensive, some view that it will be “unlikely” that Russia can build up the forces needed to make a significant impact on the war in the coming weeks.

Does Russia have the men, tanks, APCs, logistics and C3CM capable of launching and sustaining a large offensive? Given that they had their best shot a year ago and failed epically doesn’t bode well for much success for this anticipated one.

OVERALL, Russia is rushing to get an offensive off the ground and in that rush may well repeat costly errors that doomed the original invasion to failure.

Belarus -

Belarusian border guards downed Ukrainian drone with anti-drone gun. Drone was a quad rotor style drone with a camera.

Poland –

Poland closes “Bobrowniki” (“Berestovitsa”) checkpoint on the border with Belarus and extends sanctions against Lukashenka’s officials.

.
Europe / NATO General –

Estonia’s intelligence service warned on Wednesday that Russia retains the ability to put “credible military pressure” on the Baltics region, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They add that a large Russian military exercise in the region this year will strain Baltic security conditions. (FO)

OBSERVATION – The Baltic States maintain a high degree of concern over the potential for Russian invasion, and rightly so. They were seriously abused during the reign of the Soviet Union and want no repeat of Russian domination to ever happen again. Just how much ‘credible military pressure’ Russia can inflict at the current is questionable as it is putting nearly all of its resources into the Ukraine battle.

Syria -

Four days after the earthquake, the first aid convoy enters northern Syria

Turkey -

Turkey-Syria earthquake death toll passes 17,000

Black Swans

WHO’s Tedros says we “must prepare” for a potential H5N1 human bird flu pandemic.

OBSERVATION - Warnings of cross overs of bird flu have been around for many years. But in the light of the wuhan plandemic and the numerous conspiracy ‘theories’ being proven true over the past few years, one must remain suspicious and alert as the globalists may be telegraphing their next move.

Onset of the Russian winter offensive is going to keep me busy. But we cannot lose sight of other issues on the radar either.

Wuhan virus –

We already knew this, but now it is crystal clear. Fauci knew all along that the COVID vaccine could not possibly prevent either infection with or transmission of COVID?

Economy –

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), net farm income will fall by 16% in 2023, and dairy and hog farmers will see the biggest declines in income. The USDA said this decline will be caused by a combination of increased operating costs and lower expected prices for farm products. (FO)

OBSERVATION – There are some claims that farms/ranches had record net incomes in 2022, but the reality is those numbers are likely cooked to a degree. Throughout the farm/ranch news notes I’ve been perusing, they have had to dig deep to get through drought, high fuel and fertilizer prices just to stay in business. Cattle ranches had to cull herds because of lack of feed. Poultry still getting hammered by bird flu.

**
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Russia would cut its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5% of its total output. In response to the announcement, Brent crude rose 2.5% to $86.6 per barrel. This follows an OPEC decision nearly two weeks ago to reduce production.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cut-oil-output-by-500000-bpd-march-2023-02-10/

OBSERVATION – Russia playing another oil card in an effort to combat oil price caps placed on it by EU and allied nations. The total Russian and OPEC production cut backs were in part responses to the decline in demand, lead by China’s economic woes resulting from the wuhan virus shutting down factories and other production centers. OPEC production will likely lag when/if China gets rolling again – driving prices even higher this summer.

**
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is expected to take several years to adjust to last year’s shake-up, and high prices will spur the hunt for long-term deals, industry executives said at the India Energy Week conference.

OBSERVATION – Though affecting Europe more than the US, the US is being looked at as the big supplier, which will strain the availability of US gas in the mix as well.

**
Next week the Department of Labor will release its report on consumer prices in January. Analysts are expecting inflation to increase over December, due in part to the reversal in the declining gasoline prices. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that gas prices climbed from an average of $3.21 a gallon in December to $3.339, a four percent increase. The American Automobile Association’s gas price tracker shows an increase of 4.4 percent. The average price of Brent Crude climbed from $80.92 in December to $82.50 in January, around a two percent gain. So energy is likely to end up a positive contributor to headline inflation in January.

CW2/Domestic violence –

The FBI is retracting a leaked document that advised the Bureau to infiltrate groups of traditionalist Roman Catholics who the assessment claimed were at risk of committing acts of extremist violence, the Daily Caller has learned.
The FBI tells the Caller that the document, put forward by the Richmond field office, “does not meet the exacting standards of the FBI” and that the Bureau will be conducting an internal review.

“Upon learning of the document, FBI Headquarters quickly began taking action to remove the document from FBI systems and conduct a review of the basis for the document,” the agency told the Caller. “The FBI is committed to sound analytic tradecraft and to investigating and preventing acts of violence and other crimes while upholding the constitutional rights of all Americans and will never conduct investigative activities or open an investigation based solely on First Amendment protected activity.”

OBSERVATION – Our govt is at war against Americans that hold any kind of a contrary view towards the policies of the current regime.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Drama concerning James O’Keefe and the board of Project Veritas. Don’t have any real opinions yet, but there is a strong odor of coup and the coincidental recent release of the Pfizer wuhan sting videos. Does Pfizer have an inside track to the board?

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have kicked off an offensive to capture the Donbas region. Russia has managed to scrape up enough soldiers and vehicles/equipment to support this action. This is offset by lack of training, leadership and Ukrainian preparations for such an offensive.
As of now, they have the capability to make territorial gains, but have insufficient forces to attain the capture of the Donbas region.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Putin will address Russia on February 21, three days before the second year of the war in Ukraine begins.

It appears that the winter offensive is on – see Ukraine below on details.

RUMINT-
Gerasimov appears to be winning the political cage match versus Wagner Group’s Prigozhin. Observers note that with Prigozhin’s announcement that “The recruitment of prisoners by the Wagner private military company has completely stopped,” it seems putin’s favor has tipped back to the MoD. It didn’t help that upwards of 80% of Wagners prisioner fighters came home dead or seriously wounded – and word got out to the prisions. This seems to be Gerasimov assertion his position on the war and reduce Prigozhin’s clout.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.

RUMINT –
Claims that all HIMARS targets have to be cleared by the US for Ukraine to fire upon.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The doubts I had concerning the start of the Russian offensive were quickly answered overnight as Russia launched a massive missile/drone barrage against Ukraine in combination with throwing ground forces at Ukrainian defenses in the east. These missile attacks are showing signs of being designed to shape the battlefield environment. Many targeted Ukrainian power grid.

Ukraine says that it shot down 61 out of 71 missiles. According to the general staff, there were about 40 Kalibr/Kh-101 missiles in the first wave, the second wave still being dealt with. The second wave of missile were launched by strategic aviation from the Volgodonsk region. Operational Command South of Ukraine’s forces reported that the Russian used three cruisers/frigates in the Black Sea capable of carrying up to 20 Kalibr missiles as well. Russia also reportedly launched at least 7 Shahed drones from Azov Sea coast. These numbers don’t include the about ten S300 missiles that hit Kharkiv.
At least 17 missiles hit the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia.

Ukrainian Air Defenses in some cities in the east of the country were reportedly being overwhelmed by the large number of missiles that have been directed towards them. This has been the tactic used so far by Russia as Ukranian ADA has improved.

According Ukrainian military sources, Russia fired Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea which crossed Moldovan and Romanian airspace. This would be a serious violation of NATO member airspace. Romania currently denies the claim. The projected flight paths go over both countries towards areas in southwest Ukraine that were struck in the attack.

On the ground the main attack appears on several axis –

One is the Svatove – Kreminna line in the north, centering around Kreminna with the intermediate goal of retaking Lyman and pushing westward to regain ground lost last fall. OSINT analysts and others indicate that Russia has committed 2 motor rifle and 1 tank divisions along with 1 airborne division to this front.

The second is the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts centering on Bahkmut and west of Donetsk city.

The third is the Zaporizhzhia Oblast region with assaults on Orkhiv and Vuhledar. Estimates that Russia has committed at least 4 brigade sized elements against Vuhledar alone over the past week – and were chewed up. Purpose of this front’s offensive is to push Ukraine away from the logistical routes along the Azov Sea coming from Crimea (parts of the land bridge Russia tried to establish to Russian occupied Transnistria).

Ukrainian sources are claiming that Russia has massed 300,000-500,000 soldiers and around 1800 tanks for this offensive. Others view these numbers as too high – over twice the size of the original invasion force. OSINT and other intelligence agencies would have seen the movement of such numbers into the region as they did the buildup to the initial invasion. Massive amounts of other equipment would have been tracked as well.

Even with the remaining conscripts from the recent ‘mobilization’ most still place the combat effectiveness of the Russian units involved at understrength. In the worst case these units are just the name. Case in point, the 155th Naval Infantry Bde that got demolished earlier this week in Vuhledar. It has been rebuilt three times. First after it was mauled in the attempt to capture Kyiv, the second after being mauled trying to capture Adivkia (sp) and latest destruction in Vuhledar.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russia has concentrated military district-level asset such as the TOS-1 to the Kreminna area suggests that the Russian MoD is prioritizing this axis. Russia has apparently launch along the whole front from Svatove to Kreminna.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia is shifting its focus from frontal assaults on Bahkmut to the north and south flanks in an effort to cut off key resupply route that would also serve a lines of withdrawal for Ukrainian forces in the city. On these flanks, outnumbered Ukrainian forces are executing a mobile defense that appears to be slowing the assaults while inflicting high Russian losses.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Vuhledar AO. Since January 24th the Russians have committed no less than 4x maneuver brigades supported by attack aviation and massed artillery in an attempt to seize Vuhledar. These assaults have been defeated, causing substantial losses in Russian personnel & equipment.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Hits from the overnight missile / drone attacks.

OUTLOOK –
As noted above, look for continued heavy attacks around Bahkmut and the Kreminna area. Weather is iffy and may favor Ukraine slightly more than Russia as Russia is pressing into more unknown terrain and Ukraine is fighting on its home field.

Ukraine has had a lot of time to prepare for this. As the Russian disaster in Vuhledar come out, Russian armor/tanks will face being channeled into prepared kill zones. They just don’t have skilled armor leadership or drivers to react and will end up in a turkey shoot.

Russia missile/drone attacks will likely decrease, as it seems to take now about two weeks to build up a stock pile for major attacks. Remember from the start of the war there was heavy activity nearly every day for the first month or so. Russia cannot count on the same this time around.

Russia still hasn’t established air superiority over Ukraine, greatly limiting its ability to affect the ground war in any manner. Russian strategic bombers launch their missiles well within Russia airspace to avoid Ukranian ADA.

Belarus continues to be a non-player in this offensive. Eyes to the north, within Belarus, do not note any activity that would indicate pre-offensive preparations.

Russia naval activity in the Black Sea is severely limited to being launch platforms for cruise missile attacks. There is no threat from any kind of amphibious assault that there was at the start of the war.

The sustainability of the Russian offensive is questionable, the army is in a far worse state than it was at the start of the war, and if Vuhledar is any example, they haven’t learned critical lessons necessary to win.

Forecast heavy fighting with Ukraine being forced back onto deeper defensive positions. Russia may get some breakouts, but lack the tactical knowledge on the ground to exploit them in a timely manner. Russia may have a few more missiles/drones to toss into the mix over the next few days, but it is questionable just how many they have and may need to hold fire to restock to a meaningful level necessary to overwhelm Ukranian ADA.

Moldova/Transnistria -

No commentary concerning probable overflight of Russian cruise missiles overnight.

Belarus -

No indicators of any pending attacks into Ukraine other than the continued hosting of Russian missile and air forces that do shoot into Ukraine from Belarus territory.

Syria -

Quake recovery is taking priority over conflict.

Israel warns Iran not to try to disguise arms shipments to Hezbollah as quake relief supplies.

Turkey -

The confirmed death toll reached nearly 21,000 Thursday, surpassing the total from Japan’s Fukushima disaster in March 2011. That magnitude 9.0 earthquake triggered a tsunami, killing more than 18,400 people.

OBSERVATION – the number is for both Turkey and Syria. We are now well past the 72 hour window, and the chance of recovering any other survivors will be extremely rare and decreasing. It will cease being a search and rescue operation and changing to a recovery operation.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Though nothing specific in this topic, one can see the fingers of the WEF /GGR crowd intertwined with many of the actions noted below.

Wuhan virus –

The number of medical events that triggered official reporting requirements among U.S. military pilots rose more than 1,700% from 2019 to 2022, an increase the Pentagon says was the result of COVID-19.

Last month, an Army flight surgeon and prominent opponent of the U.S. military’s now-defunct COVID-19 vaccine mandate posted data on Twitter showing that the number of reportable medical events among military aviators rose from an average 226 a year between 2016 and 2019 to 4,059 in 2022, according to the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database.

OBSERVATION – DOD trying to spin this increase as driven by non-jab related incidents. The counter argument is that the rise coincides with the jab mandate and follows a parallel study in commercial airline pilots reflected in the reduction of FAA mandated EKGs that have detected increases heart issues from the jabs.

**
On February 8, 2023, while arguing on behalf of fired NYC workers who declined covid vaccination, attorney John Bursch stated in open court that unvaccinated teachers in New York City were flagged with problem codes in their personnel files, and when that occurred “their fingerprints are sent with that flag to the FBI and the New York Criminal Justice Services.”

https://dailyclout.io/fingerprints-of-unvaccinated-nyc-teachers-flagged-to-fbi/

OBSERVATION – Again, the govt is waging war against its citizens. There is absolutely no reason to ship off fingerprints to the FBI unless there was an anticipation that it would be used against them.

**
A study discovered that young people were affected the most by heart attacks during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Cedars Sinai hospital in Los Angeles published a study in September 2022 on the matter.
Researchers discovered that while acute myocardial infarction deaths throughout the pandemic spiked across all ages, the most notable increase was for the youngest group of individuals between the ages of 25 to 44.

The press release on the study explains, “By the second year of the pandemic, the ‘observed’ compared to ‘predicted’ rates of heart attack death had increased by 29.9% for adults ages 25-44, by 19.6% for adults ages 45-64, and by 13.7% for adults age 65 and older.”

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.28187

OBSERVATION – The hits continue, linking the jab to heart and other problems. I think it is safe to say that this was well known early on, but the censors shut down study and discussion in order to maintain the narrative. This is nothing less than a deliberate infliction of health damage to a key demographic of the country, the 25-44 year olds.

**
Dr Terry Adirim, the government bureaucrat behind the infamous and unlawful Pentagon vaccine mandate, will “leave her post in the coming days,” reports FedScoop. While she was in the Pentagon as the acting assistant secretary of defense for health affairs (serving as a Biden Admin political appointee), Dr Adirim, signed her name to an order forcing service members to take the emergency use authorization (EUA) vaccine. Adirim’s memo attempted to justify mandating EUA shots as if they were FDA approved, which was not the case at the time, and remains the same today.

She has yet to fully explain why she signed off on the Pentagon mandate, while displaying her medical credentials, without having the authority to sanction the mandate.

OBSERVATION – She is another reason why those who pushed the jab deserve no amnesty for their actions. Courts have ruled her ‘order’ to be illegal because the EUA shots were not authorized for use – PERIOD and yet they destroyed the lives of thousands of service men and women; some by dishonorable discharges (blanket rejections of exemptions) and others by the numerous adverse reactions and affects from the mRNA jab.

Economy –

SUMMARY – Economic analysts continue to try to guess what direction the economy is headed this year. Waiting for the January inflation numbers which some indicators suggest will not be pretty.

Invasion of Illegals –

The Florida State Legislature passed a law Friday expanding Gov. Ron DeSantis’ practice of flying illegal immigrants to cities and states primarily controlled by Democrats.

**
More than 1.7 million economic migrants have been allowed to sneak across Biden’s border, amid the millions of migrants who surrender to border guards, according to government data shared by the Federation of American Immigration Reform.

https://www.fairus.org/issue/border-security/state-border-illustrated-analysis-bidens-failure-secure-southwest-border

OBSERVATION – I’ve noted previously that the magnitude of the numbers of illegals that have entered this country under biden will for all practical purposes be nearly impossible to seek out and remove. And that is under ideal conditions, not those that exist today with aggressive leftist ‘lawyers’ and illegal immigrant ‘support’ groups to complicate matters.

Biden / Harris watch –

White House: President Biden to visit Poland on February 20-22

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

The US Department of State has been funding a “disinformation” tracking group through its Global Engagement Center (GEC), which reportedly works at demonetizing sites it accuses of disseminating “disinformation,” - which are overwhelmingly conservative news outlets, the Washington Examiner reports.

The Global Disinformation Index, a British organization with two affiliated U.S. nonprofit groups, is feeding blacklists to ad companies with the intent of defunding and shutting down websites peddling alleged “disinformation,” the Washington Examiner reported. This same “disinformation” group has received $330,000 from two State Department-backed entities.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/equality-not-elitism/disinformation-group-secretly-blacklisting-right-wing-outlets-bankrolled-state-department

OBSERVATION – The globalist seek to silence opposition. This tactic has been used by totalitarian govts for centuries and the end result is always the same – deadly.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

A U.S. military fighter jet shot down an unknown object flying off the northern coast of Alaska on Friday on orders from President Joe Biden, White House officials said.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the object was downed because it was flying at about 40,000 feet (13,000 meters) and posed a “reasonable threat” to the safety of civilian flights, not because of any knowledge that it was engaged in surveillance.

OBSERVATION – interesting, the effort to avoid calling it a ‘balloon’.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ground fighting appears to have slowed down a bit. Still heavy fighting though around Bahkmut.

Russia managed to scrape up some Iranian drones and a few other missiles overnight.

A couple of Russian Su-24 bombers hit Snake island with 4 bombs.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Vuhledar disaster fall out continues. In addition to the 155th Marine Infantry Bde being annihilated by Ukraine, the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 14th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade were also heavily decimated. Russian milbloggers are reportedly in panic mode over the total screw up. Unconfirmed reports that Russia is now planning the long slog/meatgrinder campaign like the one conducted at Bahkumt.

OUTLOOK –
A slight slowdown in action – may perhaps represent a combination of poor weather combined with a sluggish (and skittish) Russian logistics tail. The fact that Russia has been unable to sustain their missile/cruise missile/drone campaign to support the offensive is telling as well.

So far it appears that Ukraine has been able to largely absorb the initial attacks with the only sector in serious trouble is Bahkmut. For Russia to succeed in accomplishing its objectives before new western weapon systems become fully operative for Ukraine they have to make more substantial gains at a quicker rate. High personnel losses from the largely untrained ‘cannon fodder’ conscripts/mobilies will further degrade their operations.

Although Russia appears to be exhibiting the tactical momentum, Ukraine can attenuate the assault and be in a better position for a counter offensive after the Russian wave has crashed against its defenses.

Syria -

Toll of victims in opposition-held Syrian areas due to the earthquake that hit Syria and Turkey on Feb. 6 reaches 5,116.

Turkey -

Quake death toll passes 24,000. This is being reported as in Turkey alone and doesn’t include Syria.

**
For President Erdogan, the earthquakes could not have come at a worse time. Rampant inflation and a cost-of-living crisis has already hit his poll ratings and, as May elections approach, an emboldened opposition has accused him of failing to prepare for Monday’s disaster in a country prone to powerful earthquakes.

The disaster has also brought out accusations of mis-management of taxes to specifically take steps to ensure construction standards can withstand the level of quakes the region regularly experiences.

More and more evidence of building codes not being enforced by govt officials, corruption and graft by builders cutting corners etc are hammering the Turkish govt.

Invasion of Illegals –

The Department of Homeland Security is reducing its fleet of surveillance blimps along the overwhelmed southern border from 12 to four, Fox News reported Thursday.
“It’s hard to believe how badly Biden has botched the border,” Senator Rick Scott (R-Fla.) told EWTN News Nightly on Thursday.
“Now, if he gets rid of these blimps, we’re not going to know how many gotaways there are. It’s going to make our border way less secure,” the Sunshine State lawmaker continued.

OBSERVATION – These blimps were originally installed to detect low flying aircraft illegally crossing the US border, most of the time carrying drugs. They were relatively successful and forced the drug cartels to devise other means to get their product into the US. Cartel use of private aircraft to haul goods is very common in Mexico and the reduction of the surveillance along the border will likely enbolden them to resume flying high value drugs into the US once again by plane.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

ISIS has increased calls for terror attacks across the globe. While these calls have been out there for a while, what is notable is that they have broken through the background noise of everything else going on around the globe to gain notice. These calls for action are primarily linked to outrage over Sweden not stopping Danish-Swedish politician Rasmus Paludan from burning copies of the Qu’ran.

This also coincides with their efforts in Syria (see below) to expand their control of Syrian and other territory in the region.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Following the shooting down of an unidentified floating thing over Alaska, Canada requested support for another ‘thing’ floating over it as their CF-18s couldn’t reach the altitude they were floating at. Then came the news that the airspace around Havre MT was closed due to a military situation. It was later lifted after the DoD decision to wait until daylight to intercept a strange radar blip that initiated the restrictions in the first place.

Origin of these objects is still being reported as unknown. CNN has reported that US Pilots approaching object shot down over Alaska said the aircraft interfered with their plane’s sensors, another said they ‘could identify no identifiable propulsion system and they did not know how it was actually staying in the air. NORAD has stated that the Aircraft that was shot down over Northern Alaska yesterday was not detected by Radar or Early Warning Systems until it had already entered U.S. Airspace over Alaska unlike the Chinese High-Altitude Surveillance Balloon that was detected and tracked long before it had entered U.S or Canadian Airspace.

OBSERVATION –
The simplicity of these balloon incursions show that sometimes low tech can work. So far only our F-22 s have the ceiling high enough to intercept these ‘things’. On the high tech side, it is possible that who ever sent these things up (likely the Chinese) may have incorporated a degree of stealth technology to them - again to gain data on US abilty to detect them.

Cheap and seemingly able to float above air defenses they could serve as excellent intelligence collection platforms as well as potential weapons carriers. So far F-22’s have three kills of these floating ‘things’.

China –

Being implicated in the recent balloon flap.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

RUMINT-
Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and recently demoted General Sergey Surovikin have been defeated in a bid to push out Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to a prominent Russian dissident.

According to Vladimir Osechkin, the founder of the Gulagu.net group, Prigozhin, Kadyrov and Surovikin formed a triumvirate last autumn in an unsuccessful attempt to take over the Russian Ministry of Defence and take control of the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

Osechkin says that “Prigozhin was aiming for the post of first deputy head of the Ministry of Defence or for the post of defence minister. Kadyrov had plans to head the National Guard.” Surovikin became the commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine on 8 October 2022.

However, Osechkin says, Russia’s internal security agency, the FSB, found out about the plot. The trio got cold feet in a classic prisoner’s dilemma. “Each of them was not prepared to risk his own well-being for the sake of a jointly successful bright future.”

**
Russia’s new T-14 Armata tank, which, according to reports, was seen in action in Ukraine last week. This would be a first report of this tank in Ukraine.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is suffering its highest daily casualty rate in Ukraine since the start of the war, according to UK officials.
Vladimir Putin’s forces are losing 824 troops a day as the first anniversary of the start of the conflict approaches, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) believes.
In the first week of the war, Moscow was suffering an average of 1,140 casualties a day, figures compiled by the general staff of the Ukraine army suggested.
That dropped to 173 a day last July, but has been climbing steadily since then.
In their latest intelligence update on the war, the MoD said: “Over the past two weeks, Russia has likely suffered its highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy fighting in and around Bahkmut and northward towards Kreminna. Bahkmut has become increasingly been encircled to the north and south, but Russian forces still haven’t been able to seal the deal.
Zaporizhzhia front relativey quiet except for artillery strikes.

OUTLOOK –
This is a little bit of RUMINT, but supportable by available evidence. Russia milbloggers are enraged at the poor tactics of Russia armor, leading to their destruction in mass as they enter into combat. More an more videos being released showing Russian units when they come under fire, bunch up and just sit – making Ukrainian targeting that much easier. Other videos show them running over dismounted soldiers in their haste to get out of a kill zone – with many times they then run over a landmine.

NOTE - Watched on video clip where the lead vehicle was nailed with likely an Excalibur round, 4 following vehicle came to a complete stop. Second Excalibur hit one of the middle vehicles – still no motion by the others to get out of the kill zone, they just sat still. Eventually all were in flames after being hit and dismounted troops getting nailed by HE rounds trying to run away.

One word on these Russian milbloggers, many of them are partially embedded with Russian forces so can report first hand the action. When meshed with Ukrainian information, these bloggers provide a lot of intel on Russian forces.

The US army drills these various situations as part of the basic skills responses, so that it becomes second nature to them. Russia stacking up armor like on a highway traffic jam show that this level of training is essentially non-existent. This raises doubts in the Russian milblogger world that Russia could successfully exploit any kind of significant breakout using armored units. In short, Russia still hasn’t learned how to apply combined arms tactics to the battlefield like Ukraine successfully has.

The past weeks increase in combat continues to appear to be the leading edge of a Russian offensive. It also continues to show signs of being hastily put together in order to interfer with Ukraine’s planned offensive. Key axis of attacks continue to be the line from Donetsk northward to Kreminna and even further north to Svatove. The hammer will continue to fall the heaviest around Bakhmut where Ukraine forces will soon have to decide if it is time to fall back onto deeper, prepared defenses of face physical encirclement. Another contended area will be the Kreminna area due to the key logistical centers Russia wants to assist in supplying the northern flank of the main offensive.

Syria -

The Pro-Assad forces are holding rescue and humanitarian aid essentially hostage as they use it to leverage controls over the N Syrian territories devastated by the quake, but also are the stronghold of anti-Assad forces.

ISIS is also trying to take advantage of the chaotic aftermath of the quake by expanding its operations in Syria.

Turkey -

Two German aid organizations suspended rescue operations in quake-hit Turkey on Saturday, citing security problems and reports of clashes between groups of people and gunfire.

While there are press reports of survivors still being found, most are being found dead.

Colombia -

Brazil’s socialist President, Lula da Silva, has made mandatory childhood vaccinations a condition of receiving government subsidies. The socialist president announced that parents would once again need to provide proof of vaccination for their children in order to participate in the Bolsa Familia program and receive the benefit, or else families will not receive any help from the government.

OBSERVATION – Leftist tyrants gotta do what they normally do and that is keep the peons slapped down. This is the danger in becoming reliant on govt handouts – the govt can then make demands on you for the continuation of handouts.

Misc of Note –

The weather service is tracking double two separate storm systems are set to bring severe weather, heavy snow and flooding rain to various parts of the U.S.
Specific forecast details are still uncertain as the storm systems have yet to develop, but the general timing appears to be Monday and Tuesday for the first storm and Wednesday and Thursday for the second one. Severity of the storms is still being gauged, but the back-to-back nature and the seasonal shift in gulf moisture moving north can provide the catalyst for some very nasty, dangerous weather.
OBSERVATION – These storms here in the Redoubt are more snow makers than frigid arctic air masses we’ve been hit twice with in recent months. Still, for the south risk of major tornado outbreaks is the major concern.

Black Swans

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