Threat Matrix

There seems to be a level of quietness that I see as the calm before the storm. Lots of stuff prepped and ready to go if necessary.

Getting ready for the next arctic blast of the season to hit my corner of the Redoubt. Not as strong as the one last month, but plenty of snow and subzero just the same.

Globally, much the same – seems things are on a low simmer but ready to boil over in a short time. Just my general impression.

Globalism / Great Reset –

In two days an EU regulation will go into effect that allows for ‘acheta domesticus’, aka house crickets, to be added to flour, bread, pasta etc. as an ‘authorized novel food for the general population’.

OBSERVATION – Bugs are coming, whether you want them or not. It may find more acceptability in Europe, but I think here in America, companies and products that move forward on this will not be very well funded in the long run.

Wuhan virus –

Haven’t been noting all the reports of wuhan jab adverse effects across the interwebs. I’ve noted plenty in the past, but the present one’s I’ve seen are not very well linked to the actual studies, so I’ve abstained from posting them. There are enough rumors out there – though many may well be true - on top of reviewed and documented cases to show that the jab is deadly.

Economy –

SUMMARY –
Again, another calm before the storm. Wall St waiting for more economic numbers and Fed Tea leave readings before deciding to go bear or bull. Minor gas price relief is reversing and banks are hedging their bets on a recession.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden’s new Chief of Staff was the “Winter of severe illness and death for the unjabbed” guy.

CW2/Domestic violence –

California lawmakers are pushing legislation that would impose a new tax on the state’s wealthiest residents — even if they’ve already moved to another part of the country.
Assemblyman Alex Lee, a progressive Democrat, last week introduced a bill in the California State Legislature that would impose an extra annual 1.5% tax on those with a “worldwide net worth” above $1 billion, starting as early as January 2024.

California was one of several blue states last week to unveil bills to impose new wealth taxes. The other states were Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, New York and Washington. Each state’s proposal contained a different tax approach, but they all centered around the same basic idea: the rich must pay more.

OBSERVATION - In part unusual to place in this category, yet not so unusual. Note the states involved. Add to it other blue states that have added vehicle emission and EV requirements based on kalifornian standards.

What is essentially being created before our eyes is an alternative ‘national’ govt where these blue states are attempting to do an end around congress and impose progressive / Marxist laws on the rest of the country by fiat. Parallel govt is in some ways being seen in Red states as their AGs and legsiatures line up against anti-constitutional and anti freedom laws and regulations coming from DC.

Not a legal scholar, but I think kalifornia’s wealth tax on non-residents may face some head winds in the courts. Previous attempt was turned down by the democrat controlled legislature. Kalifornia lawmakers pushing the wealth tax think they can “get around” the problem of residents leaving by trying to tax people even after they leave the state,” This will also drive many more millionaires out of the state, further reducing income tax revenue.

**
Two of the six suspects arrested during a riot in downtown Atlanta Saturdayevening have been granted bond Monday morning.
A Fulton County Court judge granted both 23-year-old Ivan Ferguson of Nevada and 20-year-old Graham Evatt of Decatur, Georgia bond of over $355,000. The other four have been denied bail.
In a press conference, Mayor Andre Dickens and Atlanta Police Chief Darin Schierbaum made it clear that Atlanta is “not Portland”.

OBSERVATION - Atlanta is taking a very hard line against the Antifa thugs that were arrested. Some of them were charged earlier with other terrorism charges. This hard line may put a chill in further Antifa rioting – having to face a mayor and police force that is not cowed to the threats of Antifa and that refused to have a revolving door to those arrested.

**
In a ruling this past June, the U.S. Supreme Court said the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion; and it said the authority to regulate abortion resides with “the people and their elected representatives” — with the states, in other words.
But as state legislatures begin their sessions in this new year, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland issued a warning on Monday: Any attempt by the states to ban or restrict abortion may be met with federal intervention of some kind, including lawsuits.

OBSERVATION – Roe is another fracture zone long developing in the blue-red split of the country. The USSC fixed Roe and reinstated the fact that the constitution doesn’t grant a “right” to an abortion, but the duplicitous regime/DoJ desire to disobey the courts – a typical Marxist / leftist maneuver -to see just how far they can push back on the ruling.

ALSO NOTE – More protests at USSC judges homes over the weekend -in violation of US law and unanswered by any arrests or enforcement.

**
Three mass shootings that appeared to have been targeted against Asians were committed by Asians. The left’s narrative out in the open quick and early that it was a white supremacist / race based shootings – until the perps were caught. Lunar new year is being celebrated by predominantly asians across the world this week and that may be the link between the shootings.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Some European wonk with the UN threatened that the UN will sanction and make criminal charges against Musk if he doesn’t censor unwanted (by the globalists) speech on Twitter.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Attorney General Merrick Garland on Monday defended the Department of Justice against criticisms that the classified documents cases against President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are being treated differently. Garland said the DOJ does “not have different rules for Democrats or Republicans, different rules for the powerful or the powerless, different rules for the rich or for the poor.”

OBSERVATION – The nation doesn’t believe you Garland (ever so glad he was prevented from getting on the USSC), even democrats are questioning the growing biden scandal. The dual standard of justice is thrown in the face of Americans daily.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

On Monday, CENTCOM and the Israel Defense Forces announced the beginning of Juniper Oak 23.2, a large-scale exercise in Israel and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.
General Michael Kurilla, commander of CENTCOM, said the drill “enhances our ability to respond to contingencies, and underscores our commitment to the Middle East.”

CENTCOM in its statement said the forces would practice joint command and
control; air operations in maritime surface warfare; combat search and rescue; electronic attacks; suppression of enemy air defenses; strike coordination and reconnaissance; and air interdiction.

Of the 142 aircraft involved in the drill, 100 are American, NBC reported, including four B-52 strategic bombers, four F-35 fighter jets, 45 F/A-18 fighters, and two MQ-9 Reaper drones.

Cyber Warfare –

China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

We are now at the front end of that window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch. I will continue the watch through the end of the weekend, though it appears that action is not forthcoming.

North/South Korea –

North Korean authorities have warned of extreme weather conditions in the country as a cold wave sweeps the Korean peninsula.
Temperatures are likely to dip below -30C in the northern regions, which are also the poorest part of the country, the state radio broadcaster said.
Coastal areas are also expected to see high winds, according to state media.
South Korea too has issued a cold wave warning and northern China has been experiencing record low temperatures.

OBSERVATION – Cold air mass moving eastward from Siberia. FWIW it is expected to reach my corner of the Redoubt by this Friday/Saturday.

Japan –

Japan is bracing itself for a dangerous chill and heavy snowfall that is expected to hit the nation from Tuesday, January 24 to Thursday, January 26, 2023.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, a winter low pressure system is likely to cause very strong winds and storms over the next 2 days, leading to potential threats of frozen pipes, slippery roads, and traffic disruptions across the country.

The areas facing the Sea of Japan and much of the Pacific side of the archipelago are expected to be the most affected. The atmospheric low is predicted to develop near the Kuril Islands, northeast of Hokkaido, and east of Japan, bringing the coldest temperatures of the winter so far.1

OBSERVATION – See also N/S Korea above – frigid air and snow headed to the US by end of the week.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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RUMINT-
Wagner Group has lost as causalities (killed/wounded/captured) about 80% of its recent prison conscripts. Their reported tactics have been to force the recent conscripts forward in human wave like attacks with more experienced Wagner forces following behind (with the leaders) to secure what ever terrain they were able to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Colonel-General Sergey Kuzovlev became new commander of Russian Southern Military district and Lieutenant-General Evgeniy Nikiforov became new commander of Western Military district
NOTE – More shuffling of generals as Gerasimov attempts to get commanders to his liking in place.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

RUMINT –
Ukrainian intelligence is assessing that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023. This pushes back the winter offensive scenario.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian ground attacks around Bahkmut and in the south in two directions in Zaporizhia Oblast, with their main efforts focusing on Hulyaipole and Orikhiv are gaining some ground.

Russia also appears to be committing resources in the fight around Soldar, losing three Ka-52 attack helicopters as a result.

The Zaporizhia effort is disputed by Ukraine saying Russian forces are not conducting large-scale operations in the Zaporizhia direction and that those offensive in the last 72 hours and have not made any confirmed territorial gains in the sector despite one Russian occupation official’s continued claims.
NOTE - Observation of a build up in Russian forces opposite of Zaporizhia has been noted previously, though intel was unclear if they were in a offensive or defensive posture. A Russia attacks towards Zaporizhia would allow Russia a tactical and strategic advantage in the battle for the Donbas.

OUTLOOK ——
Bloody battles continue with Russian gains around Bahkmut and Ukrainian gains around Kreminna. All in all, the fight for Kreminna is the most significant of the two as it directly threatens supply lines to the northern Donbas campaign region.

Watching the fighting in Zaporizhia Oblast. The fight here cuts both ways as noted above for supporting the capture of Donbas by Russia, but is also the most direct route to Crimea for Ukraine.

Israel –

On Monday, CENTCOM and the Israel Defense Forces announced the beginning of Juniper Oak 23.2, a large-scale exercise in Israel and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

OBSERVATION - A warning towards Iran, however, with biden’s regime’s increasing hostility toward Israel, support for Israel should they need to strike Iran is questionable.

Lebanon -

The Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah has dramatically increased its presence on Israel’s northern border, according to a report by Yediot Aharanot Monday.
Over the past year, Hezbollah has reportedly built at least 20 new observation and guard posts adjacent to the Israeli border, despite the terms of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which bars the terrorist group from operating near Israel’s border fence.

The increase in Hezbollah activity on the border coincides with an IDF project to build a fortified border fence spanning the Israel-Lebanon border.

OBSERVATION – The UN presence in this area is a joke. In the event of a war
with Hezbollah, most of the activity on their part will be the rocket barrages aimed at Israel. There will be some attempts to infiltrate teams into Israel as well which this barrier is intended to interrupt, though it is likely there are plenty of tunnels (which this construction may be designed to detect) south. It appears to be a design similar to that around Gaza, which in part interrupts the line of sight attacks from Gaze into Israel.

Venezuela -

Inflation in Venezuela hits 234% - Reuters

OBSERVATION – Major reason so many illegals entering the US lately are from Venezuela and other communist dictatorships in Central/South America.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Bill Gates issued a warning during his visit to Australia about the impending threat of another pandemic, one that could be much more devastating than Covid and could be man-made, Daily Mail reported.
On Monday, Microsoft founder Bill Gates discussed global health, pandemic preparedness, food security, and ‘climate change’ in an in-depth interview with Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr. Michael Fullilove.
Gates urged that world leaders must put aside their differences and work together to prepare for the next epidemic.

OBSERVATION - Telegraphing the next global disaster. Note from Davos of a lot of emphasis of a global response (read more medical tyranny) to pandemics.

**
A man from Southampton, U.K., has been fined for praying near an abortion facility in Bournemouth.
Adam Smith-Connor, a British army veteran, stood still and silent on Ophir Road, a public street, for a few minutes before being approached by “community safety accredited officers,” according to an article at adf.uk, the U.K. office of Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), which is supporting the physiotherapist.
Smith-Connor had been praying outside a British Pregnancy Advisory Service (BPAS) clinic with his back to the facility in order to be mindful of the privacy of staff and attendees of the abortion center, according to ADF.

He recorded his conversation with the officers and shared footage with ADF UK. After repeatedly being asked what the nature of his prayer was, Smith-Connor told authorities he was praying for his son who died by abortion 22 years ago, a decision that still haunts him to this day.

The officers warned him he was in an area under a Public Spaces Protection Order (PSPO), which establishes a “safe zone” around abortion clinics and prohibits “engaging in any act of approval/disapproval,” including praying. The abortion clinic in Bournemouth is the fifth one in the country to have this type of censorship zone, according to local news reports.

OBSERVATION – Global thought crimes/censorship is growing in the UK as well as other parts of the globe. Silent protests are a threat as the mind is one place they cannot control outright. This is a sinister trend, following the widespread calls in the recent Davos meeting for greater censorship of “misinformation” and the like. One can read in similar goals for here in the US from the statements by many leftist mouthpieces.

**
German Environment Minister Steffi Lemke will send proposals to the cabinet to remove Germany from crop-based biofuel production.

OBSERVATION – Biofuels once were described as the way to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. It wasn’t rocket science to realize that the amount of energy needed to produce it exceeds its benefits. It is only sustainable here in the US with a lot of govt assistance and $$$.

**
Kinda old new now, but on Tuesday morning, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists — a nonprofit media organization — announced just how close it considers the world to be to “Doomsday” from man-made catastrophes such as nuclear war, “climate change,” or a deadly pandemic. For the past 75 years, the Bulletin has used a depiction of an analog clock to indicate how much time remains until midnight — the theoretical Doomsday.

OBSERVATION – Just 90 seconds. Well that fits well in the WEF / globalists cry for a unified global govt. Create a crisis and then present the “solution”.

Economy –

Rising U.S. consumer demand, combined with a rise in the price of crude oil, has led to an increase in gas prices at the pump.
The national average price for a regular gallon of gas was at $3.46 on Jan. 24, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).
The auto association attributed much of the increase in prices to good weather and strong consumer demand in an economy still struggling with high inflation.

IN RELATED - According to industry officials, twice the usual number of US oil refineries will temporarily close this spring due to maintenance and upgrades. U.S. refineries will drop total processing capacity by 1.4 million barrels per day by February. Planned projects will last from two to 11 weeks.

OBSERVATION - Market experts continue to forecast national average prices to go above $4/gal this summer. And that doesn’t include any impacts due to global crisis or China getting over its wuhan blues and getting production cranked back up. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, prices have jumped 20 cents/gal in just the last two weeks.

Invasion of Illegals –

Two left-wing nonprofits have combined to rake in hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer-backed government contracts since President Biden took office, with a vast majority of the money going towards efforts to keep illegal immigrants in the United States, records reviewed by Fox News Digital shows.
The Vera Institute of Justice, a New York-based group that views immigration enforcement agencies as a “threat” to civil liberties, has been the primary breadwinner in the past two years, collecting around $350 million from government contracts for immigration services. The Acacia Center for Justice, a newer nonprofit linked to the Vera Institute and another left-wing immigration group, has also pocketed tens of millions of dollars in recent federal contracts.
The progressive groups have landed the contracts amid the escalating border crisis, which recently saw a quarter of a million migrant encounters at the southern border in December, a new high for the Biden-era as the crisis enters its third year.

OBSERVATION - The deliberate actions by the regime to subvert the country no longer surprise me. This is just the latest in a long line of gravy train funding for ‘progressive’ organizations. I’ll bet that these organizations have potentially laundered some of these funds back into the democrat party.

Biden / Harris watch –

Jeff Zients, incoming White House chief of staff for President Joe Biden, reportedly met with the president’s son multiple times in 2016.
A report from Fox News Digital claims that Zients met with Hunter Biden and then-Vice President Joe Biden twice in February 2016 at the U.S. Naval Observatory and once in May 2016, according to emails obtained by the outlet from Hunter Biden’s infamous laptop.

OBSERVATION – Birds of a feather, so they say.

CW2/Domestic violence –

See coments on Peru below in Central / S America.

**
The Department of Justice has indicted two Florida residents on charges of a civil rights conspiracy for spray-painting threats on reproductive health services and for violating the FACE Act. If convicted, the two could face up to 12 years in prison, three years of supervised release, and up to $350,000 in fines.

“2 Members of #Miami #Antifa indicted by the feds for a string of Jane’s Revenge related vandalism targeting pro life pregnancy centers in 2022 Caleb Freestone and Amber Smith-Stewart are both charged with Civil Rights Conspiracy and violating the FACE act,” Antifa watch reported.

OBSERVATION – These charges are but a drop in the bucket compared to the dozens of charges facing pro-life protestors who clearly were non-violent in their protests. These are also the only ones arrested and charged (to my knowledge) for the dozens of the episodes of vandalism against pro-life facilities and churches since the overturning of Roe. The DoJ’s lack of response to those acts of violence has continued to confirm to many the two – tiered nature of the DoJ so called law enforcement.

**
A good observation on the response from the left on the recent attacks on Asians
“A sentiment on the far-left is that white supremacy is still to blame in Asian on Asian violence. In their pseudo-religious worldview, white supremacy is the root of all wickedness in past, present and future. “ - Andy Ngo

Cyber Warfare –

Korean media is reporting that Chinese hackers gained access to at least 12 and up to 70 South Korean government and educational institutions. The attack is not being blamed directly on the Chinese government but on a Chinese nationalist group.

OBSERVATION - Attacks by non-govt groups that can also serve as front groups for govt action will be increasingly used in the future for battlefield preparation of the cyber frontiers in future conflicts. In this case, you can be sure that the Chinese govt not only approved of the action, but could have provided technical support for the effort.

China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

We are now in that window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch. I will continue the watch through the end of the weekend, though it appears that action is not forthcoming.

North/South Korea –

North Korea has announced a five-day lockdown in the capital due to rising cases of an unspecified “respiratory illness,” according to Seoul-based NK News. This is the first city-wide lockdown since North Korea declared itself COVID-free in August last year.

According to a government notice cited by NK News, residents in Pyongyang have been told to stay indoors from Wednesday to Sunday. They are also required to submit to multiple temperature checks each day.
The government notice did not mention COVID-19 but said the symptoms of the “respiratory illness” include common cold, according to the Seoul-based website.

OBSERVATION – NK has kept its response to the wuhan plandemic very secret. Can’t say for sure then if this is wuhan, because overall health of NK civilians is iffy because of poor nutrition and preventative medical services. My also be a spill over from China’s current wuhan woes were upwards of 80% of the population may be infected by the current variant.

Japan –

Japan and India on Jan. 12 launched their first joint air combat drill in a move to bolster their military alliance amid the security challenges posed by the Chinese communist regime in the Indo-Pacific region.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

RUMINT-
There are reportedly signs Putin that is weighing making a “big move” in the next several weeks to regain the initiative in the war, officials familiar with the intelligence tells CNN.

Part of this “big move” is another troop mobilization of as many as 200,000 men, US and Western officials familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

OBSERVATION – It appears Russian is rushing to take some kind of action before the tanks supplied by NATO and the west arrive in Ukraine. Most still think it will be an offensive.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The slug fest continues in eastern Ukraine, with Ukraine making minor gains in the Savatoe -Kreminna line and Russia making minor gains around Bahkmut.

Ukrainian defense officials said their military forces conducted a tactical withdrawal ahead of advancing Russian forces near the eastern Ukraine towns of Soledar and Bakhmut. The Ukraine military units reportedly withdrew to prepare defensive positions in an effort to protect ground lines of communication from Bakhmut into central Ukraine.

Germany opened the door for NATO nations to start supplying Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as well as announcing they will be contributing as well. Some have wondered just how Ukraine will integrate the various modern NATO tanks- forgetting that Ukraine has already integrated hundreds of T-62,T-64, T-72, T-80 and T-90 (plus their numerous variants) over the past 11 months.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the resignation of five government officials and the removal of five regional governors amid corruption accusations.

OBSERVATION – Likely in response to western criticism of corruption in the Ukrainian govt.

OUTLOOK ——
No change in the slugfest in the east. Now continuing to monitor for another Russian missile barrage. However there is some RUMINT that the strategic attacks on the Ukrainian power grid and infrastructure didn’t obtain the desired results and Gerasimov has ended them in order to preserve the ever dwindling stockpile – a wise move if Russia is going to try to go back on a serious offensive.

Iran –

The Iranian flotilla, comprised of Dena and Makran warships, set sail from the south of Iran in early autumn with the purpose of circumnavigating the world, according to a Tasnim report.

The trip to Brazil appears to be part of a mission to the Panama Canal.
Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani said nearly two weeks ago that Iran is planning to extend its area of operation to the Panama Canal that divides South and North America.

“So far, we have been present in all the strategic straits of the world and we have not been present in only two straits, in one of which we will be present this year and we are planning to be present in the Panama Canal,” Irani said, according to Fars News.

The top military official also said Iran has established command centers for the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

OBSERVATION – Mostly PR for domestic consumption. Iran doesn’t have the capability to project force globally, but these moves do allow a glimpse of their thought on how they could asymmetrically project power in key areas. The Panama Canal is on such area where they could subtly threaten global shipping while at the same time secure trade deals selling Iranian made arms to leftist countries aligned against the US. This would allow them to grow their presence, protected by the host country.

Central / South America General-

Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Peru’s capital and were met with volleys of tear gas and pellets amid clashes with security forces just hours after President Dina Boluarte called for a “truce” in almost two months of protests.
The anti-government protest on Tuesday was the largest – and most violent – since last Thursday, when large groups of people, many from remote Andean regions, descended on the capital to demand Boluarte’s resignation, immediate elections and the dissolution of Congress.

Before last week, most of the large anti-government protests that followed the removal of President Pedro Castillo took place in remote regions of Peru, largely in the country’s south, exposing deep division between residents of the capital and the long-neglected countryside.

The crisis that has sparked Peru’s worst political violence in more than two decades began when Castillo, Peru’s first leader from a rural Andean background, tried to short-circuit the third impeachment proceeding of his young administration by ordering Congress dissolved on December 7.

OBSERVATION – Latin American communist support has traditionally been cultivated in the poorer, often rural areas of the region. There they gain sympatric support and have effectively built upon that support via actions towards ‘bettering’ their lives as well as portraying the urban areas and govt leadership as corrupt and uncaring. With that base extablished, the communists will turn their efforts on the urban areas, with a combination of political and military/terror attacks that eventally weaken it and opens a window for them to take control.

Here in America there is a parallel effort taking place. Antifa holds many ‘community support’ events for homeless and economically disadvantaged in their blue strongholds. These people then may become general foot soldiers for actions or provide the means for Antifa members to go to ground following actions. I look at this though as they have in some part put the cart before the horse - violence before establishing popular support. Time will tell if they can reverse course.

Meanwhile, I expect more violence in Peru and wouldn’t plan on visiting Machu Picu any time soon.

Misc of Note –

California State Assemblymember Lori Wilson (D) introduced Assembly Bill 228, which will require the California Department of Health (CDOH) to establish an infant formula stockpile for the state. Wilson said the CDOH already maintains a stockpile of key medications, and her bill simply expands the directive to include formula.

OBSERVATION – More a political move than a practical one. Yes, a stockpile of baby formula would be a good idea - if the state of kalifornia could prove it has the capability of managing such a stockpile in a cost effective manner. However, just about everything kalifornia sticks their noses into devolves into a dumpster fire.

Baby formula has a limited shelf life. For most products I don’t worry about the “best by” date (this is NOT an expiration date, but a date by which the taste and nutritional quality of the product is guaranteed by the company), but in the case of dairy related products and expecially baby formula (with components designed to break down quickly in the infant’s digestive tract) the expiration date is critical. There is no apparent plan for stockage rotation and what to do with the expiring formula. Most likely will just end up in a land fill being wasted.

Kinda old new now, but on Tuesday morning, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists — a nonprofit media organization — announced just how close it considers the world to be to “Doomsday” from man-made catastrophes such as nuclear war, “climate change,” or a deadly pandemic.

When I was young everyone knew the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists was a commie front group.

Much of today will be spent pre-stockpiling split fire wood and checking stored water in anticipation of the incoming winter/arctic storm and freeze. Likely the last major cold blast of the season with the lowest temps forecast in the -26 to -28 range. But actual weather is pretty fickle here in the mountains, so we may see more or less snow. But the cold will hit.

Globalism / Great Reset –

See Pfizer spilling the beans below under Wuhan.

Wuhan virus –

Wow, did Project Veritas rattle the hornet’s nest overnight. Their latest release nails Pfizer for exploring “Mutating” COVID-19 virus for new vaccines. Jordon Trishton Walker, Pfizer Director of R&D for mRNA Scientific Planning admits they’re exploring “mutating viruses” in a lab to tailor a vaccine to sell to the public.

“Don’t tell anyone this...There is a risk...have to be very controlled to make sure this virus you mutate doesn’t create something...the way that the virus started in Wuhan, to be honest.”

Cover up begins - Daily Mail has removed its article about Project Veritas’ latest footage on Pfizer. Google search has it buried as well.

OBSERVATION – If one considers that the whole Pfizer/Moderna vaccine scam was designed and endorsed by the globalist to reduce the global population, this guy’s statement becomes even more credible and dangerous. We also must remember Pfizer has a history of getting hammered in the courts for their products. Its bad enough that govt labs with reportedly high degree of protections to keep these mutations contained, but a private company with probably just a fraction of the protective measures considering playing the same game. . . . .

Biden / Harris watch –

VP Harris has been eerily quiet about President Joe Biden’s classified document scandal, causing at least some Republicans to believe Harris could be angling to push Biden out of the way for a shot at the Oval Office.

OBSERVATION – It may well be more likely that she is lying low and searching out any classified she’s drug home over the past couple years, perhaps knowing full well that the powers that be may be trying to stop a biden reelection bid and toss him under the bus – and that she will be included with him.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Joy Reid became visibly giddy on air at the prospect of jailing rival journalists for White Supremacy hate speech. Reid interviewed Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) about a bill she introduced, HR 61, dubbed the “Leading Against White Supremacy Act of 2023.” According to the New York Post, HR 61 “aims ‘to prevent and prosecute white supremacy inspired hate crime and conspiracy to commit white supremacy inspired hate crime.’”

In effect, the bill would mean that “people who use hate speech online could face criminal charges under the legislation even if they don’t act on their threats.” This includes “material advancing white supremacy, white supremacist ideology, antagonism based on ‘replacement theory,’ or hate speech that vilifies or is otherwise directed against any non-white person or group.”

OBSERVATION – If there is one thing we should have learned about the Marxist/progressive left by now is that they think the world revolves around them and that they are endowed to define terms and conditions any way they choose to support their cause. They absolutely want to completely censor conservative views and will do what ever it takes to do so. Fortunately Lee’s bill is essentially DOA but you can bet it will do a zombie act if the dems retain the WH and control both houses again.

**
Meta just announced that they will be allowing President Trump to return to Facebook and Instagram after a 2-year bid in the gulag.

“As a general rule, we don’t want to get in the way of open, public and democratic debate on Meta’s platforms – especially in the context of elections in democratic societies like the United States,” Nick Clegg, Meta’s president of global affairs, wrote. “The public should be able to hear what their politicians are saying – the good, the bad and the ugly – so that they can make informed choices at the ballot box.”

OBSERVATION – For those of us who’ve been put in FB jail over the years over similar, “meta’s” statement rings pretty hollow in their endorsement of “open, public and democratic debate”.

POLITICAL FRONT –

A San Francisco judge has granted a motion to release dramatic police bodycam footage from the night former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, was attacked by an assailant with a hammer at their home.
The motion was granted on Wednesday, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, with Judge Stephen Murphy siding with a coalition of news organizations who sought access to evidence against David DePape, the man charged in the October attack.

The media argued back in December that the footage should be presented in court and accessible to the public since they had been submitted in open court and admitted into evidence.

OBSERVATION – This should be interesting. It should clear up a lot of the speculation surrounding the incident.
BTW – Pelosi claims to have had a priest execute an ‘exorcism’ of the property following the incident, the Catholic diocese denies the claim. I believe the diocese because Pelosi still can come to her home. . . . .

Speaking of Pelosi – the pelosi’s sold off 3 million in stocks in Google about a month prior to the DoJ filing a lawsuit against it. Insider trading anyone?

**
Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), and Ilhan Omar(D-Minn.) vowed to “stick together” on Jan. 25 in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) refusal to allow them assignments on House committees.

OBSERVATION – What goes around, comes around and I’m sure McCarthy is just quaking in his bunny slippers over their threats. As he strongly inferred to a very stupid reporter the other day in a classic slap down, he has the goods on them. In Omar’s bleat, she some how forgets she voted to do the EXACT SAME THING to republicans under the Pelosi regime.

**
Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel’s salary has more than doubled since she began her tenure six years ago, now far exceeding the pay of any of her predecessors.
She is facing calls to step down after losing the House of Representatives in 2018, both chambers of Congress and the White House in 2020, and far underperforming expectations by winning only a slim majority in the House while failing to regain the Senate in 2022.
McDaniel has touted her leadership in building party infrastructure, as 4 million more GOP voters than Democrats turned out nationwide during the 2022 midterms.

OBSERVATION – She is a major part of the problem at the RNC – there only on the basis of her uncle – Mitt. The RNC did very little to increase more GOP voters – that credit has to go to Trump. She is a liability to the RNC – but then that’s just what the eGOP elements want.

China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

We are now in the window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch. I will continue the watch through the end of the weekend, though it appears that action is not forthcoming.

North/South Korea –

More evidence of Russia and China ignoring sanctions on NK. In particular NK’s delivery of munitions to Russia (Wagner Group the current benefactors).

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

The kremlin and Russian nationalist mouthpieces are angry over the recent announcements of the west supplying modern tanks to Ukraine. Some calling the actions an open declaration of war against Russia and calling military strikes against Germany in particular.

Logistics –
GUR published a short intercepted call indicating that Russians issues an order to strictly conserve their ammunition “at all positions”. Unfortunately, no additional context is provided. Reduced rate of Russian fire is a continuing topic of military analysis.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Two Germans have been captured in Bakhmut, where they were fighting for the Russian mercenary Wagner Group

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Russian strategic bomber nets went hot overnight and Russia released its latest missile barrage after about a two week pause. Ukrainian air defense shot down 47 of 55 missiles launched by Russia this morning. Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-47, Kinzhal, Kaliber, Kh-59 cruise missiles, launched by Tu-95, Su-35, Mig-31K and naval vessels from Black Sea. Iranian Shaheds drones were also in the mix. A couple missile got through at Kyiv (explosions may possibly be debris as Kyiv authorities claim all 20 of the missiles that targeted the city were shot down), and the Zaporizhzhia region Odesa and Kherson were also targeted but were shot down.

NOTE – though operating through code words, Russian Air Force strategic aviation voice net operated on 4694 Kilohertz USB, 2016 UTC using structured messages that are well documented as being active commands for launch preparation and execution. Russian naval has similar nets and programmed scripts for their launches as well. This gives Ukraine warning of an impending attack and can make sure its ADA assets are wound up and ready.

Russia has attacked a transport ship in the Port of Kherson sailing under a Turkish flag but appears to be owned by another country. Video posted on social media shows the commander’s bridge on fire. No response from Turkey yet.

OUTLOOK ——
No change in the slugfest in the east. Russian force tactics may be changing to that of engaging in limited spoiling attacks across most of the frontline in Ukraine in order to disperse and distract Ukrainian forces and set conditions to launch a decisive offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast.

Analysts are sharpening their pencils and trying to analyze what Russia’s plans for their offensive may be. Some note that the array of conventional forces across the Luhansk Obl. frontline suggests that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort in this sector, likely offensive, supported by limited spoiling attacks elsewhere on the frontline to distract and disperse Ukrainian forces.

The according to some, the most probable course of a Russian offensive action in Luhansk Oblast would be premised on launching an attack along the Svatove-Kreminna line, supported by critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run into major logistics hubs in Luhansk City and Starobilsk in order to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative border and complete the capture of the remaining part of Luhansk Oblast that is still Ukrainian-controlled. I’ve noted reports of Russian build up in the Svatove-Kreminna, some of which were to bolster the defenses.

Russian forces may hope to recapture critical ground in northern Donetsk Oblast around Lyman and use the Svatove-Kreminna line to launch further attacks into western Kharkiv and/or northern Donetsk Oblasts.
This axis of attack is similar to what the Russians attempted in their Izium push last spring. That push came out of the north at that time from the Kharkiv sector following parallel N/S lines of drift and roads. That effort stalled out and all the territory was recaptured by Ukraine this past summer. Russia will be forced to deal with numerous river crossings (that they failed to use to their advantage during the Ukraine’s offensive that cleared out a lot of eastern Ukraine.

Logistics appear to be a critical issue for Russia, given the order to conserve ammo (See Russia above) as well as other, more strategic weapons, reflected in their ballistic/cruise missile and drone attacks. The overnight missile attacks were substantially smaller than previous ones and may reflect the increasing shortage of those munitions. The attack had very little effect on the Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian ADA continues to improve its defenses. When Russia launches its offensive, it will need all the missiles and drones it can get its hands on to hit deep targets in Ukrainian defenses and not waste them flailing against strengthening defenses. Same goes for ammunition, which Ukraine will continue to strike logistics points, forcing Russian to disperse even more and strain their transportation assets further.

As Russia continues its preparations for their effort to regain the momentum, its troop deployments will begin to tell a better story of their intents.

Right now Russia and Ukraine are racing to get their forces ready for action. The old adage of “He who gets there with the most-est the first-ist will be the winner” is in play.

Pakistan –

The recent large power outage that struck the nation this week has resulted in the revelation that the country is in serious economic trouble, with very little cash reserve to purchase fuel for power plants, let alone other essentials such as food. This will trigger even more political instability and embolden Taliban elements to increase their efforts to control more remote stronghold areas as well as to start expanding into adjacent one. A nuclear power and the threat of those bombs getting into the wrong hands could result in serious consequences. IMHO I think this gives Saudi Arabia a chance to purchase their own nuclear arsenal.

Israel –

Nine Palestinians were killed during heavy clashes between gunmen and Israeli troops in Jenin on Thursday morning, according to Israeli media reports. The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement that troops were engaged while attempting to detain Palestinian Islamic Jihad members planning a major terrorist attack.

OBSERVATION – These kinds of clashes between IDF and PIJ terrorists have developed into almost a daily occurrence. A significant part of this is the leadership crisis in the Palestinian authority that PIJ and Hamas are trying to exploit to push Abbas out and insert their own in his place. Their actions are gaining some support by those disaffected by Abbas’ rule.

Central / South America General-

Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva said that he favors a broad trade agreement between the Mercosur South American trade bloc and China. Lula was in Uruguay to dissuade its government from making a solo trade deal with China.

OBSERVATION – China is making deals of the century in order to gain inroads into Central and South America in part to secure strategic minerals and oil sources and secondly to increasingly isolate the US in the hemisphere. Where Russia/Cuba failed, China is currently succeeding.

Project Veritas video regarding "Cash Cow" of covid mutations :

https://www.projectveritas.com/news/pfizer-executive-mutate-covid-via-directed-evolution-for-company-to-continue/

For those of us who’ve been put in FB jail over the years over similar, “meta’s” statement rings pretty hollow in their endorsement of “open, public and democratic debate”.

Hollow? Not at all.

They are all for "democratic debate", their beef is with conservative and/or Republican debate!

Stood down for a day to take the oldest grandkid XC skiing. Then all heck starts to break out globally.

Globalism / Great Reset –

On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) released an update to the list of medicines that should be stockpiled in case of what it called “radiological and nuclear emergencies.” According to the report, almost half of the organization’s member nations were unequipped for such an emergency, and the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have highlighted the need to ensure that people have access to necessary medications and supplies. The document supersedes a 2007 report and lists the medications that should be stockpiled and how to store and manage them.

OBSERVATION – As a prepper, review of my supplies status is a key item to identify outdated materials and shortfalls. The question some in the interwebs are asking is the WHO telegraphing an impeding event?

**
The Minnesota House passed legislation after seven hours of debate late Thursday night that would require the state’s electricity grid to be 100% carbon-free in 17 years.

OBSERVATION – The WEF advances its agenda bit by bit, using its useful idiots on the left to carry the water.

**
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) issued an alert to taxpayers on Tuesday, reminding them that they must report all digital asset-related income and answer a new digital asset question on their 2022 federal income tax return or face consequences such as delayed refunds or even penalties.

OBSERVATION – I fully expect an increased ‘squeeze’ on the crypto currencies over the course of the rest of this year, especially as the govt likely prepares for the roll out of CBDCs, designed to further govt oversight and control of American spending.

Wuhan virus –

Following the release of Pfizer big wig Jordon Trishton Walker secretly-recorded admission that Pfizer is mutating COVID-19 to create vaccines, James O’Keefe, confronted him and hilarity ensued.

Walker, who was described in the video as a Director of Research and Development, becomes combative with a physical confrontation eventually breaking out.

Pfizer released a late-Friday press release regarding the incident. In a lengthy statement, the pharmaceutical company claims it does not perform gain-of-function research. However it is clear that the company delves into a boatload of doublespeak and redefining terms to otherwise accept credit for essentially conducting gain of function research.

OBSERVATION - This is obfuscatory and confusing at best, and given Pfizer’s history of misleading the public (costing them billions in fines), there’s no reason to take the company’s word for anything.

**
California’s controversial COVID-19 misinformation law, which bars doctors from providing “misinformation” or “disinformation” related to COVID-19, is an unprecedented effort by those in power to block doctors from sharing their views on COVID-19 topics, including on vaccines, with their patients, an attorney says. And lawmakers had pivoted the initial bill from its true, intended purpose to be able to pass it.

A judge granted a preliminary injunction (pdf) late Wednesday, temporarily blocking the law from being enforced pending further litigation in two lawsuits. Jaffe is involved in one of the cases—Hoang v. Bonta. The other case is Hoeg v. Newsom. Both had argued, in part, that AB 2098 is unconstitutional under the First and Fourteenth Amendments of the U.S. Constitution.

OBSERVATION – kalifornia doubles down on the wuhan insanity, proving once again the plandemic is only a vehicle to exercise more power and silence real scientific debate and inquiry.

Economy –

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has declared a regional emergency in eight states due to a shortage of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel caused by the combination of low production and high demand. The agency, a component of the Department of Transportation responsible for regulating the trucking industry, made the declaration in response to the closure of a refinery in Colorado and the exceptionally severe winter weather that is causing demand for fuel to surge.

On Dec. 24, the Suncor Refinery in Commerce City, Colorado, unexpectedly shut down due to “extreme and record-setting weather,” according to the company’s press release. Suncor claimed the refinery isn’t expected to resume full operations until late into the first quarter of 2023.

OBSERVATION – No significant expansion of our refinery capability/capacity has been added in decades as any growth has been hamstrung by increasingly restrictive environmental laws and the volatile nature of the oil industry. Plus it has been cheaper to import gasoline/diesel from sources less hamstrung. So the loss of just one refinery can create serious ripples across the supply sector.
BTW – see Misc below – another arctic blast is targeting the country.

Invasion of Illegals –

Border Patrol agents in the Swanton Sector, which includes all of Vermont, in the first three months of fiscal 2023 apprehended more foreign nationals entering the country illegally than they did in the past two fiscal years combined, according to sector chief Robert Garcia.

The sector leads the northern border in illicit border crossings, whose agents continue to see a record number of foreign nationals illegally entering upstate New York, Vermont and New Hampshire after flying to Canada from at least 19 countries.

From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2022, Swanton Sector agents saw a 743% increase in apprehensions and encounters compared to the same period last year, Garcia said. Combined apprehensions and encounters in the first three months of fiscal 2023 have already surpassed those of the entire fiscal 2022.
In December, Border Patrol agents apprehended more people than ever before, 441, according to data obtained by The Center Square from a Border Patrol agent. Agents also reported 14 who turned back to Canada and 135 who evaded capture and entered the U.S. illegally. Law enforcement doesn’t know who or where they are.

https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/vermont-border-patrol-apprehensions-first-3-months-fiscal-2023

OBSERVATION – Most eyes have been on the southern border, but the Canadian border is far less guarded based on the assumption that Canada will more strongly protect itself against these transient illegals, thus reducing our need to crossing checkpoints.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Memphis PD on Friday released the body cam footage from the police stop of Tyre Nichols, who died three days after the incident. Protests / riots broke out in varying degrees in about a couple dozen major cities with the worst centered in Memphis TN. NYC, LA, Seattle and Portland saw higher levels of violence.

Five black policemen have been charged for murder. However, that didn’t stop MSM outlets like CNN from claiming that this was a ‘racist’ and “white supremacy,” based attack.

OBSERVATION – The attempt to tie ‘racism’ and ‘white supremacy’ into the mix given the police officers AND the chief of police are black seems to be a desperation attempt to throw gas on the fire. This incident has hit the leftist mantra of elimination of police forces though. Antifa has quickly joined the mix as one of their key elements is the elimination of police as well.

However, the absence of white/non-black police officers in the mix may work to cool off protests. Another mitigating factor is that the ‘national’ leadership of BLM is still hit with its own scandal – inhibiting national coordination.

I’m certain that if that were the case, given the short fuse Antifa seems to be working on combined with BLM involvement could result in more substantial riots. Additionally, this may begin a restructure of the national level BLM movement to new leadership.

One last note – arctic weather enroute to the eastern half of the nation (with serious sub-zero temps and even colder wind chills) may serve to deter prolonged protests.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

AT&T’s DirecTV de-platformed NewsMax, over alleged contract renewal disputes. Conservatives have noted that after stripping its systems of two (OAN being the other) of the three conservative news channels, DirecTV continues to carry 22 liberal news channels, many with low ratings and all getting hefty license fees.

OBSERVATION – Shaping of the 2024 information battlefield has clearly begun and this is just one of the many battlegrounds – access to the TV media.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Republican National Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel won re-election Friday after months of contentious fighting within the party from conservatives who argued that she was a Republican in name only. She also announced that this would be her last term.

OBSERVATION - RNC throws itself into a death spiral even more willingly. This will give her and the eGOP a fourth election to totally muddle up and continue to lose key conflicts between now and then – while she spends lavishly on herself.

**
The Pelosi officer cam video has been released, including video of the break in to the residence. Though it answers some questions, it has raised others.

China –

Standing down from the war watch as there just isn’t enough activity that I’ve seen to suggest that China will institute an initial blockade to ‘sway’ Taiwan to the negotiating table.

**
In an internal memorandum that first emerged on social media on Friday, and was later confirmed as genuine by the Pentagon, the head of the Air Mobility Command, General Mike Minihan, said the main goal should be to deter “and, if required, defeat” China.

“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan said.
Laying out his reasoning, Minihan said Taiwan’s presidential elections next year would offer Chinese President Xi Jinping an excuse for military aggression, while the United States would be distracted by its own contest for the White House.

OBSERVATION - The logic is sound and even though China didn’t initiate a blockade of sorts now, that option is still the most likely of the intial gambits China could use to try to get Taiwan to surrender without a war. A blockade to choke off Taiwan during their election plus chaos in the US during our election cycle is very plausible.

**
Wang Huning is expected to become the deputy director of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, the party’s top decision-making body on China’s Taiwan policy. The top director is Xi.

One source knowledgeable of China-Taiwan relations noted that Wang will be tasked with writing a theoretical unification strategy fit for the Xi era.

“One may assume that a threat of China using force to unify Taiwan is imminent, but this is not the case. The first step is to launch a new theory that will replace Deng’s one country, two systems. Then pressure will be put on Taiwan based on it,” the source explained.

The source expects this theory to become a yardstick with which to measure progress and to decide if a military operation is necessary.

Xi wants to chalk up an achievement in regard to Taiwan at any cost over the next five years, which would help his quest to seek a fourth term as head of the party in 2027.

OBSERVATION – The tea leaves are not becoming any clearer, but China can play the long game, especially to avoid a costly and risky military action. A 2025-2027 window is plausible (see other note above) but global crises (like Ukraine) may allow China to accelerate its plans.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin & former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia against the backdrop of Russian military failures in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION – Maneuvering to replace putin and pin the massive Ukrainian failure on him. Dangerous business continuing to simmer.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Though largely RUMINT, there are persistent reports that a mobilization of drug addicts was included in the recent mobilization. According to some sources, drug use has continued even while on the front lines.

- Persistent rumors that Putin is prepared to order a second wave of Russian mobilization which includes the coerced recruitment of convicts and not-yet-citizens in addition to the drug addicts. In addition to this recruitment strategy is the expansion of eligibility requirements. Ukrainian intelligence officials predict that Russia may announce a plan to mobilize an additional 500,000 soldiers “in the coming days.”

- The Wagner Group is facing difficulties finding new recruits after suffering huge casualties in eastern Ukraine, according to reports. It’s said to be trying to find recruits in Central Asian prisons and possibly even merging with Ruslan Kadyrov’s Chechen forces. Wagner reportedly has attempted to recruit more inmates without much success. The prisoners are well aware of the use of their fellow convicts as cannon fodder and now mostly refuse to go.

- A cemetery used to bury Wagner fighters has been mapped via commercial satellite imagery and has grown nearly 10 fold over the past few months. According to Reuters, there were around 200 graves at the site on the outskirts of Bakinskaya village in Krasnodar region when Reuters visited in late January. Videos and photographs of the graves first appeared on social media channels in the Krasnodar region in December. Reuters geolocated these images to the Bakinskaya cemetery and reviewed satellite imagery of the site from Maxar Technologies and Capella Space. Satellite pictures show that the Wagner plot was empty in the summer, had three rows of graves by the end of November and was three-quarters full by early January. Virtually the entire plot was used by Jan. 24. Analysis suggests that Bakinskaya cemetery seen in satellite pictures, as well as a nearby secondary location in the nearby town of Goryachy Klyuch, may hold around 1,000 dead Wagner soldiers.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Status quo remains along the eastern front with very little changes to who controls what territory. There has been a lot of noise from the Russian milbloggers about massive breakthroughs, but there is no evidence to support their claims and are most likely propaganda for the homeland.

OUTLOOK ——
Both sides are essentially in a operational ‘pause’ as they scramble to get forces and equipment into positions for expected offensives/counteroffensives.

Smaller level fighting along the LOC in eastern Ukraine is to be expected to continue.

Israel –

A quick recap - Nine Palestinians were killed during heavy clashes between gunmen and Israeli troops in Jenin. This resulted in the PIJ launching a couple of rockets towards Israel that were easily intercepted. IAF responded by pounding the snot out of some Hamas underground facilities.

Then things escalated - Five men, aged 20, 25, 30, 50, and 60, and two women, aged 60 and 70, killed in the shooting attack in a Jerusalem synagogue. Wounded victims include 15 y/o boy, 24 y/o man, and 60 y/o woman. Israeli police killed the culprit as he tried to escape and the pali contingent in Jenin broke out in massive celebrations over the murders.

To make matters worse (for Israel) the synagogue shooting happened on Holocaust Memorial Day, which commemorates the six million Jews and other victims who were killed in the Holocaust by the Nazi regime in Germany.

In an initial response, Israel swept into the Jenin community and arrested at least 45 suspected terrorists.

OBSERVATION – Rest assured that a stronger Israeli response is in the works.
NOTE – The airstrikes hit Hamas facilities, not PIJ. Hamas did not crack down on Islamic Jihad to stop them from launching rockets and as the defacto rulers of Gaza, Israel holds them accountable for any action by other terror groups..

Iran –

Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to build “several” nuclear weapons if it chooses, according to a United Nations’ top nuclear official. For months, nonproliferation experts have suggested Iran had enough uranium enriched up to 60% to build at least one nuclear weapon.

OBSERVATION – For a nuclear weapon, purity has to reach 90%+ levels, so the “enough” statement must refer to having enough 60% to make the final jump to 90%.

**
Azerbaijani security sources claim Iranian special services are behind the terrorist attack against the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran. Employees of the Azerbaijani embassy in Iran are ‘leaving the country’ following today’s attack against the embassy, diplomatic sources tell Haqqin

OBSERVATION – Iran has been looking to pick a fight with Azeris for a number of years now and that has increased with the recent Azeri/Armenian fight. One of Iran’s word curses is that Azeri is a puppet of Israel – who is the second largest supplier of military hardware to the country. However, coordinating an attack on an official embassy is really looking to step over the escalation line.

Misc of Note –

An arctic blast looming this weekend has the potential to be the most significant winter cooldown for the northern tier of the country since December.
The FOX Forecast Center said highs will be 25 to 40 degrees below average Saturday and Sunday for much of the central and northern Plains and Midwest, with highs more than 30 degrees below average from Montana to western Kansas on Sunday. This will correspond to temperatures staying in the teens and single digits.

OBSERVATION – Bracing here in the Redoubt as temps have dropped over 10 degrees in the past hour. Hopefully people learned from the December arctic blast and are better prepared.