Much of today will be spent pre-stockpiling split fire wood and checking stored water in anticipation of the incoming winter/arctic storm and freeze. Likely the last major cold blast of the season with the lowest temps forecast in the -26 to -28 range. But actual weather is pretty fickle here in the mountains, so we may see more or less snow. But the cold will hit.
Globalism / Great Reset –
See Pfizer spilling the beans below under Wuhan.
Wuhan virus –
Wow, did Project Veritas rattle the hornet’s nest overnight. Their latest release nails Pfizer for exploring “Mutating” COVID-19 virus for new vaccines. Jordon Trishton Walker, Pfizer Director of R&D for mRNA Scientific Planning admits they’re exploring “mutating viruses” in a lab to tailor a vaccine to sell to the public.
“Don’t tell anyone this...There is a risk...have to be very controlled to make sure this virus you mutate doesn’t create something...the way that the virus started in Wuhan, to be honest.”
Cover up begins - Daily Mail has removed its article about Project Veritas’ latest footage on Pfizer. Google search has it buried as well.
OBSERVATION – If one considers that the whole Pfizer/Moderna vaccine scam was designed and endorsed by the globalist to reduce the global population, this guy’s statement becomes even more credible and dangerous. We also must remember Pfizer has a history of getting hammered in the courts for their products. Its bad enough that govt labs with reportedly high degree of protections to keep these mutations contained, but a private company with probably just a fraction of the protective measures considering playing the same game. . . . .
Biden / Harris watch –
VP Harris has been eerily quiet about President Joe Biden’s classified document scandal, causing at least some Republicans to believe Harris could be angling to push Biden out of the way for a shot at the Oval Office.
OBSERVATION – It may well be more likely that she is lying low and searching out any classified she’s drug home over the past couple years, perhaps knowing full well that the powers that be may be trying to stop a biden reelection bid and toss him under the bus – and that she will be included with him.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Joy Reid became visibly giddy on air at the prospect of jailing rival journalists for White Supremacy hate speech. Reid interviewed Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) about a bill she introduced, HR 61, dubbed the “Leading Against White Supremacy Act of 2023.” According to the New York Post, HR 61 “aims ‘to prevent and prosecute white supremacy inspired hate crime and conspiracy to commit white supremacy inspired hate crime.’”
In effect, the bill would mean that “people who use hate speech online could face criminal charges under the legislation even if they don’t act on their threats.” This includes “material advancing white supremacy, white supremacist ideology, antagonism based on ‘replacement theory,’ or hate speech that vilifies or is otherwise directed against any non-white person or group.”
OBSERVATION – If there is one thing we should have learned about the Marxist/progressive left by now is that they think the world revolves around them and that they are endowed to define terms and conditions any way they choose to support their cause. They absolutely want to completely censor conservative views and will do what ever it takes to do so. Fortunately Lee’s bill is essentially DOA but you can bet it will do a zombie act if the dems retain the WH and control both houses again.
**
Meta just announced that they will be allowing President Trump to return to Facebook and Instagram after a 2-year bid in the gulag.
“As a general rule, we don’t want to get in the way of open, public and democratic debate on Meta’s platforms – especially in the context of elections in democratic societies like the United States,” Nick Clegg, Meta’s president of global affairs, wrote. “The public should be able to hear what their politicians are saying – the good, the bad and the ugly – so that they can make informed choices at the ballot box.”
OBSERVATION – For those of us who’ve been put in FB jail over the years over similar, “meta’s” statement rings pretty hollow in their endorsement of “open, public and democratic debate”.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A San Francisco judge has granted a motion to release dramatic police bodycam footage from the night former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, was attacked by an assailant with a hammer at their home.
The motion was granted on Wednesday, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, with Judge Stephen Murphy siding with a coalition of news organizations who sought access to evidence against David DePape, the man charged in the October attack.
The media argued back in December that the footage should be presented in court and accessible to the public since they had been submitted in open court and admitted into evidence.
OBSERVATION – This should be interesting. It should clear up a lot of the speculation surrounding the incident.
BTW – Pelosi claims to have had a priest execute an ‘exorcism’ of the property following the incident, the Catholic diocese denies the claim. I believe the diocese because Pelosi still can come to her home. . . . .
Speaking of Pelosi – the pelosi’s sold off 3 million in stocks in Google about a month prior to the DoJ filing a lawsuit against it. Insider trading anyone?
**
Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), and Ilhan Omar(D-Minn.) vowed to “stick together” on Jan. 25 in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) refusal to allow them assignments on House committees.
OBSERVATION – What goes around, comes around and I’m sure McCarthy is just quaking in his bunny slippers over their threats. As he strongly inferred to a very stupid reporter the other day in a classic slap down, he has the goods on them. In Omar’s bleat, she some how forgets she voted to do the EXACT SAME THING to republicans under the Pelosi regime.
**
Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel’s salary has more than doubled since she began her tenure six years ago, now far exceeding the pay of any of her predecessors.
She is facing calls to step down after losing the House of Representatives in 2018, both chambers of Congress and the White House in 2020, and far underperforming expectations by winning only a slim majority in the House while failing to regain the Senate in 2022.
McDaniel has touted her leadership in building party infrastructure, as 4 million more GOP voters than Democrats turned out nationwide during the 2022 midterms.
OBSERVATION – She is a major part of the problem at the RNC – there only on the basis of her uncle – Mitt. The RNC did very little to increase more GOP voters – that credit has to go to Trump. She is a liability to the RNC – but then that’s just what the eGOP elements want.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
We are now in the window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch. I will continue the watch through the end of the weekend, though it appears that action is not forthcoming.
North/South Korea –
More evidence of Russia and China ignoring sanctions on NK. In particular NK’s delivery of munitions to Russia (Wagner Group the current benefactors).
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
The kremlin and Russian nationalist mouthpieces are angry over the recent announcements of the west supplying modern tanks to Ukraine. Some calling the actions an open declaration of war against Russia and calling military strikes against Germany in particular.
Logistics –
GUR published a short intercepted call indicating that Russians issues an order to strictly conserve their ammunition “at all positions”. Unfortunately, no additional context is provided. Reduced rate of Russian fire is a continuing topic of military analysis.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Two Germans have been captured in Bakhmut, where they were fighting for the Russian mercenary Wagner Group
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Russian strategic bomber nets went hot overnight and Russia released its latest missile barrage after about a two week pause. Ukrainian air defense shot down 47 of 55 missiles launched by Russia this morning. Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-47, Kinzhal, Kaliber, Kh-59 cruise missiles, launched by Tu-95, Su-35, Mig-31K and naval vessels from Black Sea. Iranian Shaheds drones were also in the mix. A couple missile got through at Kyiv (explosions may possibly be debris as Kyiv authorities claim all 20 of the missiles that targeted the city were shot down), and the Zaporizhzhia region Odesa and Kherson were also targeted but were shot down.
NOTE – though operating through code words, Russian Air Force strategic aviation voice net operated on 4694 Kilohertz USB, 2016 UTC using structured messages that are well documented as being active commands for launch preparation and execution. Russian naval has similar nets and programmed scripts for their launches as well. This gives Ukraine warning of an impending attack and can make sure its ADA assets are wound up and ready.
Russia has attacked a transport ship in the Port of Kherson sailing under a Turkish flag but appears to be owned by another country. Video posted on social media shows the commander’s bridge on fire. No response from Turkey yet.
OUTLOOK ——
No change in the slugfest in the east. Russian force tactics may be changing to that of engaging in limited spoiling attacks across most of the frontline in Ukraine in order to disperse and distract Ukrainian forces and set conditions to launch a decisive offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast.
Analysts are sharpening their pencils and trying to analyze what Russia’s plans for their offensive may be. Some note that the array of conventional forces across the Luhansk Obl. frontline suggests that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort in this sector, likely offensive, supported by limited spoiling attacks elsewhere on the frontline to distract and disperse Ukrainian forces.
The according to some, the most probable course of a Russian offensive action in Luhansk Oblast would be premised on launching an attack along the Svatove-Kreminna line, supported by critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run into major logistics hubs in Luhansk City and Starobilsk in order to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative border and complete the capture of the remaining part of Luhansk Oblast that is still Ukrainian-controlled. I’ve noted reports of Russian build up in the Svatove-Kreminna, some of which were to bolster the defenses.
Russian forces may hope to recapture critical ground in northern Donetsk Oblast around Lyman and use the Svatove-Kreminna line to launch further attacks into western Kharkiv and/or northern Donetsk Oblasts.
This axis of attack is similar to what the Russians attempted in their Izium push last spring. That push came out of the north at that time from the Kharkiv sector following parallel N/S lines of drift and roads. That effort stalled out and all the territory was recaptured by Ukraine this past summer. Russia will be forced to deal with numerous river crossings (that they failed to use to their advantage during the Ukraine’s offensive that cleared out a lot of eastern Ukraine.
Logistics appear to be a critical issue for Russia, given the order to conserve ammo (See Russia above) as well as other, more strategic weapons, reflected in their ballistic/cruise missile and drone attacks. The overnight missile attacks were substantially smaller than previous ones and may reflect the increasing shortage of those munitions. The attack had very little effect on the Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian ADA continues to improve its defenses. When Russia launches its offensive, it will need all the missiles and drones it can get its hands on to hit deep targets in Ukrainian defenses and not waste them flailing against strengthening defenses. Same goes for ammunition, which Ukraine will continue to strike logistics points, forcing Russian to disperse even more and strain their transportation assets further.
As Russia continues its preparations for their effort to regain the momentum, its troop deployments will begin to tell a better story of their intents.
Right now Russia and Ukraine are racing to get their forces ready for action. The old adage of “He who gets there with the most-est the first-ist will be the winner” is in play.
Pakistan –
The recent large power outage that struck the nation this week has resulted in the revelation that the country is in serious economic trouble, with very little cash reserve to purchase fuel for power plants, let alone other essentials such as food. This will trigger even more political instability and embolden Taliban elements to increase their efforts to control more remote stronghold areas as well as to start expanding into adjacent one. A nuclear power and the threat of those bombs getting into the wrong hands could result in serious consequences. IMHO I think this gives Saudi Arabia a chance to purchase their own nuclear arsenal.
Israel –
Nine Palestinians were killed during heavy clashes between gunmen and Israeli troops in Jenin on Thursday morning, according to Israeli media reports. The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement that troops were engaged while attempting to detain Palestinian Islamic Jihad members planning a major terrorist attack.
OBSERVATION – These kinds of clashes between IDF and PIJ terrorists have developed into almost a daily occurrence. A significant part of this is the leadership crisis in the Palestinian authority that PIJ and Hamas are trying to exploit to push Abbas out and insert their own in his place. Their actions are gaining some support by those disaffected by Abbas’ rule.
Central / South America General-
Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva said that he favors a broad trade agreement between the Mercosur South American trade bloc and China. Lula was in Uruguay to dissuade its government from making a solo trade deal with China.
OBSERVATION – China is making deals of the century in order to gain inroads into Central and South America in part to secure strategic minerals and oil sources and secondly to increasingly isolate the US in the hemisphere. Where Russia/Cuba failed, China is currently succeeding.
https://www.projectveritas.com/news/pfizer-executive-mutate-covid-via-directed-evolution-for-company-to-continue/
Hollow? Not at all.
They are all for "democratic debate", their beef is with conservative and/or Republican debate!
Stood down for a day to take the oldest grandkid XC skiing. Then all heck starts to break out globally.
Globalism / Great Reset –
On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) released an update to the list of medicines that should be stockpiled in case of what it called “radiological and nuclear emergencies.” According to the report, almost half of the organization’s member nations were unequipped for such an emergency, and the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have highlighted the need to ensure that people have access to necessary medications and supplies. The document supersedes a 2007 report and lists the medications that should be stockpiled and how to store and manage them.
OBSERVATION – As a prepper, review of my supplies status is a key item to identify outdated materials and shortfalls. The question some in the interwebs are asking is the WHO telegraphing an impeding event?
**
The Minnesota House passed legislation after seven hours of debate late Thursday night that would require the state’s electricity grid to be 100% carbon-free in 17 years.
OBSERVATION – The WEF advances its agenda bit by bit, using its useful idiots on the left to carry the water.
**
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) issued an alert to taxpayers on Tuesday, reminding them that they must report all digital asset-related income and answer a new digital asset question on their 2022 federal income tax return or face consequences such as delayed refunds or even penalties.
OBSERVATION – I fully expect an increased ‘squeeze’ on the crypto currencies over the course of the rest of this year, especially as the govt likely prepares for the roll out of CBDCs, designed to further govt oversight and control of American spending.
Wuhan virus –
Following the release of Pfizer big wig Jordon Trishton Walker secretly-recorded admission that Pfizer is mutating COVID-19 to create vaccines, James O’Keefe, confronted him and hilarity ensued.
Walker, who was described in the video as a Director of Research and Development, becomes combative with a physical confrontation eventually breaking out.
Pfizer released a late-Friday press release regarding the incident. In a lengthy statement, the pharmaceutical company claims it does not perform gain-of-function research. However it is clear that the company delves into a boatload of doublespeak and redefining terms to otherwise accept credit for essentially conducting gain of function research.
OBSERVATION - This is obfuscatory and confusing at best, and given Pfizer’s history of misleading the public (costing them billions in fines), there’s no reason to take the company’s word for anything.
**
California’s controversial COVID-19 misinformation law, which bars doctors from providing “misinformation” or “disinformation” related to COVID-19, is an unprecedented effort by those in power to block doctors from sharing their views on COVID-19 topics, including on vaccines, with their patients, an attorney says. And lawmakers had pivoted the initial bill from its true, intended purpose to be able to pass it.
A judge granted a preliminary injunction (pdf) late Wednesday, temporarily blocking the law from being enforced pending further litigation in two lawsuits. Jaffe is involved in one of the cases—Hoang v. Bonta. The other case is Hoeg v. Newsom. Both had argued, in part, that AB 2098 is unconstitutional under the First and Fourteenth Amendments of the U.S. Constitution.
OBSERVATION – kalifornia doubles down on the wuhan insanity, proving once again the plandemic is only a vehicle to exercise more power and silence real scientific debate and inquiry.
Economy –
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has declared a regional emergency in eight states due to a shortage of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel caused by the combination of low production and high demand. The agency, a component of the Department of Transportation responsible for regulating the trucking industry, made the declaration in response to the closure of a refinery in Colorado and the exceptionally severe winter weather that is causing demand for fuel to surge.
On Dec. 24, the Suncor Refinery in Commerce City, Colorado, unexpectedly shut down due to “extreme and record-setting weather,” according to the company’s press release. Suncor claimed the refinery isn’t expected to resume full operations until late into the first quarter of 2023.
OBSERVATION – No significant expansion of our refinery capability/capacity has been added in decades as any growth has been hamstrung by increasingly restrictive environmental laws and the volatile nature of the oil industry. Plus it has been cheaper to import gasoline/diesel from sources less hamstrung. So the loss of just one refinery can create serious ripples across the supply sector.
BTW – see Misc below – another arctic blast is targeting the country.
Invasion of Illegals –
Border Patrol agents in the Swanton Sector, which includes all of Vermont, in the first three months of fiscal 2023 apprehended more foreign nationals entering the country illegally than they did in the past two fiscal years combined, according to sector chief Robert Garcia.
The sector leads the northern border in illicit border crossings, whose agents continue to see a record number of foreign nationals illegally entering upstate New York, Vermont and New Hampshire after flying to Canada from at least 19 countries.
From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2022, Swanton Sector agents saw a 743% increase in apprehensions and encounters compared to the same period last year, Garcia said. Combined apprehensions and encounters in the first three months of fiscal 2023 have already surpassed those of the entire fiscal 2022.
In December, Border Patrol agents apprehended more people than ever before, 441, according to data obtained by The Center Square from a Border Patrol agent. Agents also reported 14 who turned back to Canada and 135 who evaded capture and entered the U.S. illegally. Law enforcement doesn’t know who or where they are.
OBSERVATION – Most eyes have been on the southern border, but the Canadian border is far less guarded based on the assumption that Canada will more strongly protect itself against these transient illegals, thus reducing our need to crossing checkpoints.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Memphis PD on Friday released the body cam footage from the police stop of Tyre Nichols, who died three days after the incident. Protests / riots broke out in varying degrees in about a couple dozen major cities with the worst centered in Memphis TN. NYC, LA, Seattle and Portland saw higher levels of violence.
Five black policemen have been charged for murder. However, that didn’t stop MSM outlets like CNN from claiming that this was a ‘racist’ and “white supremacy,” based attack.
OBSERVATION – The attempt to tie ‘racism’ and ‘white supremacy’ into the mix given the police officers AND the chief of police are black seems to be a desperation attempt to throw gas on the fire. This incident has hit the leftist mantra of elimination of police forces though. Antifa has quickly joined the mix as one of their key elements is the elimination of police as well.
However, the absence of white/non-black police officers in the mix may work to cool off protests. Another mitigating factor is that the ‘national’ leadership of BLM is still hit with its own scandal – inhibiting national coordination.
I’m certain that if that were the case, given the short fuse Antifa seems to be working on combined with BLM involvement could result in more substantial riots. Additionally, this may begin a restructure of the national level BLM movement to new leadership.
One last note – arctic weather enroute to the eastern half of the nation (with serious sub-zero temps and even colder wind chills) may serve to deter prolonged protests.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
AT&T’s DirecTV de-platformed NewsMax, over alleged contract renewal disputes. Conservatives have noted that after stripping its systems of two (OAN being the other) of the three conservative news channels, DirecTV continues to carry 22 liberal news channels, many with low ratings and all getting hefty license fees.
OBSERVATION – Shaping of the 2024 information battlefield has clearly begun and this is just one of the many battlegrounds – access to the TV media.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Republican National Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel won re-election Friday after months of contentious fighting within the party from conservatives who argued that she was a Republican in name only. She also announced that this would be her last term.
OBSERVATION - RNC throws itself into a death spiral even more willingly. This will give her and the eGOP a fourth election to totally muddle up and continue to lose key conflicts between now and then – while she spends lavishly on herself.
**
The Pelosi officer cam video has been released, including video of the break in to the residence. Though it answers some questions, it has raised others.
China –
Standing down from the war watch as there just isn’t enough activity that I’ve seen to suggest that China will institute an initial blockade to ‘sway’ Taiwan to the negotiating table.
**
In an internal memorandum that first emerged on social media on Friday, and was later confirmed as genuine by the Pentagon, the head of the Air Mobility Command, General Mike Minihan, said the main goal should be to deter “and, if required, defeat” China.
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan said.
Laying out his reasoning, Minihan said Taiwan’s presidential elections next year would offer Chinese President Xi Jinping an excuse for military aggression, while the United States would be distracted by its own contest for the White House.
OBSERVATION - The logic is sound and even though China didn’t initiate a blockade of sorts now, that option is still the most likely of the intial gambits China could use to try to get Taiwan to surrender without a war. A blockade to choke off Taiwan during their election plus chaos in the US during our election cycle is very plausible.
**
Wang Huning is expected to become the deputy director of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, the party’s top decision-making body on China’s Taiwan policy. The top director is Xi.
One source knowledgeable of China-Taiwan relations noted that Wang will be tasked with writing a theoretical unification strategy fit for the Xi era.
“One may assume that a threat of China using force to unify Taiwan is imminent, but this is not the case. The first step is to launch a new theory that will replace Deng’s one country, two systems. Then pressure will be put on Taiwan based on it,” the source explained.
The source expects this theory to become a yardstick with which to measure progress and to decide if a military operation is necessary.
Xi wants to chalk up an achievement in regard to Taiwan at any cost over the next five years, which would help his quest to seek a fourth term as head of the party in 2027.
OBSERVATION – The tea leaves are not becoming any clearer, but China can play the long game, especially to avoid a costly and risky military action. A 2025-2027 window is plausible (see other note above) but global crises (like Ukraine) may allow China to accelerate its plans.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin & former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia against the backdrop of Russian military failures in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – Maneuvering to replace putin and pin the massive Ukrainian failure on him. Dangerous business continuing to simmer.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Though largely RUMINT, there are persistent reports that a mobilization of drug addicts was included in the recent mobilization. According to some sources, drug use has continued even while on the front lines.
- Persistent rumors that Putin is prepared to order a second wave of Russian mobilization which includes the coerced recruitment of convicts and not-yet-citizens in addition to the drug addicts. In addition to this recruitment strategy is the expansion of eligibility requirements. Ukrainian intelligence officials predict that Russia may announce a plan to mobilize an additional 500,000 soldiers “in the coming days.”
- The Wagner Group is facing difficulties finding new recruits after suffering huge casualties in eastern Ukraine, according to reports. It’s said to be trying to find recruits in Central Asian prisons and possibly even merging with Ruslan Kadyrov’s Chechen forces. Wagner reportedly has attempted to recruit more inmates without much success. The prisoners are well aware of the use of their fellow convicts as cannon fodder and now mostly refuse to go.
- A cemetery used to bury Wagner fighters has been mapped via commercial satellite imagery and has grown nearly 10 fold over the past few months. According to Reuters, there were around 200 graves at the site on the outskirts of Bakinskaya village in Krasnodar region when Reuters visited in late January. Videos and photographs of the graves first appeared on social media channels in the Krasnodar region in December. Reuters geolocated these images to the Bakinskaya cemetery and reviewed satellite imagery of the site from Maxar Technologies and Capella Space. Satellite pictures show that the Wagner plot was empty in the summer, had three rows of graves by the end of November and was three-quarters full by early January. Virtually the entire plot was used by Jan. 24. Analysis suggests that Bakinskaya cemetery seen in satellite pictures, as well as a nearby secondary location in the nearby town of Goryachy Klyuch, may hold around 1,000 dead Wagner soldiers.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Status quo remains along the eastern front with very little changes to who controls what territory. There has been a lot of noise from the Russian milbloggers about massive breakthroughs, but there is no evidence to support their claims and are most likely propaganda for the homeland.
OUTLOOK ——
Both sides are essentially in a operational ‘pause’ as they scramble to get forces and equipment into positions for expected offensives/counteroffensives.
Smaller level fighting along the LOC in eastern Ukraine is to be expected to continue.
Israel –
A quick recap - Nine Palestinians were killed during heavy clashes between gunmen and Israeli troops in Jenin. This resulted in the PIJ launching a couple of rockets towards Israel that were easily intercepted. IAF responded by pounding the snot out of some Hamas underground facilities.
Then things escalated - Five men, aged 20, 25, 30, 50, and 60, and two women, aged 60 and 70, killed in the shooting attack in a Jerusalem synagogue. Wounded victims include 15 y/o boy, 24 y/o man, and 60 y/o woman. Israeli police killed the culprit as he tried to escape and the pali contingent in Jenin broke out in massive celebrations over the murders.
To make matters worse (for Israel) the synagogue shooting happened on Holocaust Memorial Day, which commemorates the six million Jews and other victims who were killed in the Holocaust by the Nazi regime in Germany.
In an initial response, Israel swept into the Jenin community and arrested at least 45 suspected terrorists.
OBSERVATION – Rest assured that a stronger Israeli response is in the works.
NOTE – The airstrikes hit Hamas facilities, not PIJ. Hamas did not crack down on Islamic Jihad to stop them from launching rockets and as the defacto rulers of Gaza, Israel holds them accountable for any action by other terror groups..
Iran –
Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to build “several” nuclear weapons if it chooses, according to a United Nations’ top nuclear official. For months, nonproliferation experts have suggested Iran had enough uranium enriched up to 60% to build at least one nuclear weapon.
OBSERVATION – For a nuclear weapon, purity has to reach 90%+ levels, so the “enough” statement must refer to having enough 60% to make the final jump to 90%.
**
Azerbaijani security sources claim Iranian special services are behind the terrorist attack against the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran. Employees of the Azerbaijani embassy in Iran are ‘leaving the country’ following today’s attack against the embassy, diplomatic sources tell Haqqin
OBSERVATION – Iran has been looking to pick a fight with Azeris for a number of years now and that has increased with the recent Azeri/Armenian fight. One of Iran’s word curses is that Azeri is a puppet of Israel – who is the second largest supplier of military hardware to the country. However, coordinating an attack on an official embassy is really looking to step over the escalation line.
Misc of Note –
An arctic blast looming this weekend has the potential to be the most significant winter cooldown for the northern tier of the country since December.
The FOX Forecast Center said highs will be 25 to 40 degrees below average Saturday and Sunday for much of the central and northern Plains and Midwest, with highs more than 30 degrees below average from Montana to western Kansas on Sunday. This will correspond to temperatures staying in the teens and single digits.
OBSERVATION – Bracing here in the Redoubt as temps have dropped over 10 degrees in the past hour. Hopefully people learned from the December arctic blast and are better prepared.
Stood down for a day to take the oldest grandkid XC skiing. Then all heck starts to break out globally.
Globalism / Great Reset –
On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) released an update to the list of medicines that should be stockpiled in case of what it called “radiological and nuclear emergencies.” According to the report, almost half of the organization’s member nations were unequipped for such an emergency, and the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have highlighted the need to ensure that people have access to necessary medications and supplies. The document supersedes a 2007 report and lists the medications that should be stockpiled and how to store and manage them.
OBSERVATION – As a prepper, review of my supplies status is a key item to identify outdated materials and shortfalls. The question some in the interwebs are asking is the WHO telegraphing an impeding event?
**
The Minnesota House passed legislation after seven hours of debate late Thursday night that would require the state’s electricity grid to be 100% carbon-free in 17 years.
OBSERVATION – The WEF advances its agenda bit by bit, using its useful idiots on the left to carry the water.
**
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) issued an alert to taxpayers on Tuesday, reminding them that they must report all digital asset-related income and answer a new digital asset question on their 2022 federal income tax return or face consequences such as delayed refunds or even penalties.
OBSERVATION – I fully expect an increased ‘squeeze’ on the crypto currencies over the course of the rest of this year, especially as the govt likely prepares for the roll out of CBDCs, designed to further govt oversight and control of American spending.
Wuhan virus –
Following the release of Pfizer big wig Jordon Trishton Walker secretly-recorded admission that Pfizer is mutating COVID-19 to create vaccines, James O’Keefe, confronted him and hilarity ensued.
Walker, who was described in the video as a Director of Research and Development, becomes combative with a physical confrontation eventually breaking out.
Pfizer released a late-Friday press release regarding the incident. In a lengthy statement, the pharmaceutical company claims it does not perform gain-of-function research. However it is clear that the company delves into a boatload of doublespeak and redefining terms to otherwise accept credit for essentially conducting gain of function research.
OBSERVATION - This is obfuscatory and confusing at best, and given Pfizer’s history of misleading the public (costing them billions in fines), there’s no reason to take the company’s word for anything.
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California’s controversial COVID-19 misinformation law, which bars doctors from providing “misinformation” or “disinformation” related to COVID-19, is an unprecedented effort by those in power to block doctors from sharing their views on COVID-19 topics, including on vaccines, with their patients, an attorney says. And lawmakers had pivoted the initial bill from its true, intended purpose to be able to pass it.
A judge granted a preliminary injunction (pdf) late Wednesday, temporarily blocking the law from being enforced pending further litigation in two lawsuits. Jaffe is involved in one of the cases—Hoang v. Bonta. The other case is Hoeg v. Newsom. Both had argued, in part, that AB 2098 is unconstitutional under the First and Fourteenth Amendments of the U.S. Constitution.
OBSERVATION – kalifornia doubles down on the wuhan insanity, proving once again the plandemic is only a vehicle to exercise more power and silence real scientific debate and inquiry.
Economy –
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has declared a regional emergency in eight states due to a shortage of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel caused by the combination of low production and high demand. The agency, a component of the Department of Transportation responsible for regulating the trucking industry, made the declaration in response to the closure of a refinery in Colorado and the exceptionally severe winter weather that is causing demand for fuel to surge.
On Dec. 24, the Suncor Refinery in Commerce City, Colorado, unexpectedly shut down due to “extreme and record-setting weather,” according to the company’s press release. Suncor claimed the refinery isn’t expected to resume full operations until late into the first quarter of 2023.
OBSERVATION – No significant expansion of our refinery capability/capacity has been added in decades as any growth has been hamstrung by increasingly restrictive environmental laws and the volatile nature of the oil industry. Plus it has been cheaper to import gasoline/diesel from sources less hamstrung. So the loss of just one refinery can create serious ripples across the supply sector.
BTW – see Misc below – another arctic blast is targeting the country.
Invasion of Illegals –
Border Patrol agents in the Swanton Sector, which includes all of Vermont, in the first three months of fiscal 2023 apprehended more foreign nationals entering the country illegally than they did in the past two fiscal years combined, according to sector chief Robert Garcia.
The sector leads the northern border in illicit border crossings, whose agents continue to see a record number of foreign nationals illegally entering upstate New York, Vermont and New Hampshire after flying to Canada from at least 19 countries.
From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2022, Swanton Sector agents saw a 743% increase in apprehensions and encounters compared to the same period last year, Garcia said. Combined apprehensions and encounters in the first three months of fiscal 2023 have already surpassed those of the entire fiscal 2022.
In December, Border Patrol agents apprehended more people than ever before, 441, according to data obtained by The Center Square from a Border Patrol agent. Agents also reported 14 who turned back to Canada and 135 who evaded capture and entered the U.S. illegally. Law enforcement doesn’t know who or where they are.
OBSERVATION – Most eyes have been on the southern border, but the Canadian border is far less guarded based on the assumption that Canada will more strongly protect itself against these transient illegals, thus reducing our need to crossing checkpoints.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Memphis PD on Friday released the body cam footage from the police stop of Tyre Nichols, who died three days after the incident. Protests / riots broke out in varying degrees in about a couple dozen major cities with the worst centered in Memphis TN. NYC, LA, Seattle and Portland saw higher levels of violence.
Five black policemen have been charged for murder. However, that didn’t stop MSM outlets like CNN from claiming that this was a ‘racist’ and “white supremacy,” based attack.
OBSERVATION – The attempt to tie ‘racism’ and ‘white supremacy’ into the mix given the police officers AND the chief of police are black seems to be a desperation attempt to throw gas on the fire. This incident has hit the leftist mantra of elimination of police forces though. Antifa has quickly joined the mix as one of their key elements is the elimination of police as well.
However, the absence of white/non-black police officers in the mix may work to cool off protests. Another mitigating factor is that the ‘national’ leadership of BLM is still hit with its own scandal – inhibiting national coordination.
I’m certain that if that were the case, given the short fuse Antifa seems to be working on combined with BLM involvement could result in more substantial riots. Additionally, this may begin a restructure of the national level BLM movement to new leadership.
One last note – arctic weather enroute to the eastern half of the nation (with serious sub-zero temps and even colder wind chills) may serve to deter prolonged protests.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
AT&T’s DirecTV de-platformed NewsMax, over alleged contract renewal disputes. Conservatives have noted that after stripping its systems of two (OAN being the other) of the three conservative news channels, DirecTV continues to carry 22 liberal news channels, many with low ratings and all getting hefty license fees.
OBSERVATION – Shaping of the 2024 information battlefield has clearly begun and this is just one of the many battlegrounds – access to the TV media.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Republican National Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel won re-election Friday after months of contentious fighting within the party from conservatives who argued that she was a Republican in name only. She also announced that this would be her last term.
OBSERVATION - RNC throws itself into a death spiral even more willingly. This will give her and the eGOP a fourth election to totally muddle up and continue to lose key conflicts between now and then – while she spends lavishly on herself.
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The Pelosi officer cam video has been released, including video of the break in to the residence. Though it answers some questions, it has raised others.
China –
Standing down from the war watch as there just isn’t enough activity that I’ve seen to suggest that China will institute an initial blockade to ‘sway’ Taiwan to the negotiating table.
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In an internal memorandum that first emerged on social media on Friday, and was later confirmed as genuine by the Pentagon, the head of the Air Mobility Command, General Mike Minihan, said the main goal should be to deter “and, if required, defeat” China.
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan said.
Laying out his reasoning, Minihan said Taiwan’s presidential elections next year would offer Chinese President Xi Jinping an excuse for military aggression, while the United States would be distracted by its own contest for the White House.
OBSERVATION - The logic is sound and even though China didn’t initiate a blockade of sorts now, that option is still the most likely of the intial gambits China could use to try to get Taiwan to surrender without a war. A blockade to choke off Taiwan during their election plus chaos in the US during our election cycle is very plausible.
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Wang Huning is expected to become the deputy director of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, the party’s top decision-making body on China’s Taiwan policy. The top director is Xi.
One source knowledgeable of China-Taiwan relations noted that Wang will be tasked with writing a theoretical unification strategy fit for the Xi era.
“One may assume that a threat of China using force to unify Taiwan is imminent, but this is not the case. The first step is to launch a new theory that will replace Deng’s one country, two systems. Then pressure will be put on Taiwan based on it,” the source explained.
The source expects this theory to become a yardstick with which to measure progress and to decide if a military operation is necessary.
Xi wants to chalk up an achievement in regard to Taiwan at any cost over the next five years, which would help his quest to seek a fourth term as head of the party in 2027.
OBSERVATION – The tea leaves are not becoming any clearer, but China can play the long game, especially to avoid a costly and risky military action. A 2025-2027 window is plausible (see other note above) but global crises (like Ukraine) may allow China to accelerate its plans.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin & former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia against the backdrop of Russian military failures in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – Maneuvering to replace putin and pin the massive Ukrainian failure on him. Dangerous business continuing to simmer.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Though largely RUMINT, there are persistent reports that a mobilization of drug addicts was included in the recent mobilization. According to some sources, drug use has continued even while on the front lines.
- Persistent rumors that Putin is prepared to order a second wave of Russian mobilization which includes the coerced recruitment of convicts and not-yet-citizens in addition to the drug addicts. In addition to this recruitment strategy is the expansion of eligibility requirements. Ukrainian intelligence officials predict that Russia may announce a plan to mobilize an additional 500,000 soldiers “in the coming days.”
- The Wagner Group is facing difficulties finding new recruits after suffering huge casualties in eastern Ukraine, according to reports. It’s said to be trying to find recruits in Central Asian prisons and possibly even merging with Ruslan Kadyrov’s Chechen forces. Wagner reportedly has attempted to recruit more inmates without much success. The prisoners are well aware of the use of their fellow convicts as cannon fodder and now mostly refuse to go.
- A cemetery used to bury Wagner fighters has been mapped via commercial satellite imagery and has grown nearly 10 fold over the past few months. According to Reuters, there were around 200 graves at the site on the outskirts of Bakinskaya village in Krasnodar region when Reuters visited in late January. Videos and photographs of the graves first appeared on social media channels in the Krasnodar region in December. Reuters geolocated these images to the Bakinskaya cemetery and reviewed satellite imagery of the site from Maxar Technologies and Capella Space. Satellite pictures show that the Wagner plot was empty in the summer, had three rows of graves by the end of November and was three-quarters full by early January. Virtually the entire plot was used by Jan. 24. Analysis suggests that Bakinskaya cemetery seen in satellite pictures, as well as a nearby secondary location in the nearby town of Goryachy Klyuch, may hold around 1,000 dead Wagner soldiers.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Status quo remains along the eastern front with very little changes to who controls what territory. There has been a lot of noise from the Russian milbloggers about massive breakthroughs, but there is no evidence to support their claims and are most likely propaganda for the homeland.
OUTLOOK ——
Both sides are essentially in a operational ‘pause’ as they scramble to get forces and equipment into positions for expected offensives/counteroffensives.
Smaller level fighting along the LOC in eastern Ukraine is to be expected to continue.
Israel –
A quick recap - Nine Palestinians were killed during heavy clashes between gunmen and Israeli troops in Jenin. This resulted in the PIJ launching a couple of rockets towards Israel that were easily intercepted. IAF responded by pounding the snot out of some Hamas underground facilities.
Then things escalated - Five men, aged 20, 25, 30, 50, and 60, and two women, aged 60 and 70, killed in the shooting attack in a Jerusalem synagogue. Wounded victims include 15 y/o boy, 24 y/o man, and 60 y/o woman. Israeli police killed the culprit as he tried to escape and the pali contingent in Jenin broke out in massive celebrations over the murders.
To make matters worse (for Israel) the synagogue shooting happened on Holocaust Memorial Day, which commemorates the six million Jews and other victims who were killed in the Holocaust by the Nazi regime in Germany.
In an initial response, Israel swept into the Jenin community and arrested at least 45 suspected terrorists.
OBSERVATION – Rest assured that a stronger Israeli response is in the works.
NOTE – The airstrikes hit Hamas facilities, not PIJ. Hamas did not crack down on Islamic Jihad to stop them from launching rockets and as the defacto rulers of Gaza, Israel holds them accountable for any action by other terror groups..
Iran –
Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to build “several” nuclear weapons if it chooses, according to a United Nations’ top nuclear official. For months, nonproliferation experts have suggested Iran had enough uranium enriched up to 60% to build at least one nuclear weapon.
OBSERVATION – For a nuclear weapon, purity has to reach 90%+ levels, so the “enough” statement must refer to having enough 60% to make the final jump to 90%.
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Azerbaijani security sources claim Iranian special services are behind the terrorist attack against the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran. Employees of the Azerbaijani embassy in Iran are ‘leaving the country’ following today’s attack against the embassy, diplomatic sources tell Haqqin
OBSERVATION – Iran has been looking to pick a fight with Azeris for a number of years now and that has increased with the recent Azeri/Armenian fight. One of Iran’s word curses is that Azeri is a puppet of Israel – who is the second largest supplier of military hardware to the country. However, coordinating an attack on an official embassy is really looking to step over the escalation line.
Misc of Note –
An arctic blast looming this weekend has the potential to be the most significant winter cooldown for the northern tier of the country since December.
The FOX Forecast Center said highs will be 25 to 40 degrees below average Saturday and Sunday for much of the central and northern Plains and Midwest, with highs more than 30 degrees below average from Montana to western Kansas on Sunday. This will correspond to temperatures staying in the teens and single digits.
OBSERVATION – Bracing here in the Redoubt as temps have dropped over 10 degrees in the past hour. Hopefully people learned from the December arctic blast and are better prepared.